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大停滞 科技高原下的经济困境 美国的难题与中国的机遇

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大停滞 科技高原下的经济困境 美国的难题与中国的机遇

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★ 收入增长停滞、生活水平停滞、全球经济停滞,这一切的源头为何?
停滞,并不只是一场金融危机,而是一代人的偷懒与不思进取;
停滞,并不只是资源耗尽,而是原生创新与应用创新之间无法连接。
★ 西方炙手可热的经济学家、“下一个弗里德曼”泰勒·考恩追索经济困境的根源。
★ 中国有影响力科技学者涂子沛跨界导读,停滞难题会否困住中国?

Content Description

《大停滞?》是美国炙手可热的经济学家乔治梅森大学经济系主任泰勒·考恩的畅销之作。面对金融危机过后出现的经济停滞局面,泰勒·考恩指出,这场危机的根源,不是周期性的经济动荡,而是自20世纪六七十年代以来科技创新的停滞。
20世纪70年代起,那些富裕了很长时间的国家,发展都已开始放缓,这其实就是科技脚步放缓的迹象。我们坐享一个世纪前的科技硕果,并自以为变得越来越富裕且富有创新的活力,其实并不是。
我们自认为创新能力很强,各类技术产品层出不穷,我们时代备受瞩目引以为傲的巨大的进步——计算机及互联网,的确意义重大且影响深远,但比照20世纪初期高速发展所依靠的电、马达、汽车、火车等等极大推动美国经济高速发展的重大变革性科技创新,计算机和互联网至今没有让所有人受益,更没有成为驱动经济发展的核心动力……
泰勒·考恩追索经济困境的根源,揭开收入增长停滞、生活水平停滞、全球经济停滞的成因。中国最有影响力科技学者涂子沛跨界导读,揭开中国经济与科技背后的独特逻辑。
Author Description

泰勒·考恩(TylerCowen),哈佛大学经济学博士,目前任教于乔治梅森大学,并主持该校知名智库MercatusCenter。他的博客在全美经济类点阅率的排行榜上高居第二位,超过克鲁格曼在《纽约时报》的博客。《彭博商业周刊》称他为“美国最炙手可热的经济学家”,也入选英国《经济学人》过去十年“最有影响力的经济学家”,《大停滞》一书即源于其广受欢迎的博客,整理出版后即成为当年畅销之作。因其在此书中对科技与生产力关系的独特思考,使其被誉为“下一个托马斯·弗里德曼”。
Comments

★也许好书的标志就是这样的:当你读完后,你就发现他的理论在许多不同的领域里都开始显现。……这样的书才值得花时间和精力。
——《华盛顿邮报》

★考恩说,过去300年美国已采摘了所有“低垂的果实”。我们耗尽了闲置的土地,科技的优势,以及普及性的教育。我们以为“低垂的果实”会采摘不尽。它确实很丰沛,但我们却太贪婪。所以考恩犀利地总结了金融危机的根源:我们没有自己想象的那么富有。
——《福布斯》

★考恩的书激起了无数的讨论……它的对过去经济趋势的解读无比清晰。
——《石板》

★这是当今时代一本最有意义的小书:比起其他的出版物而言,它更有洞察性、急迫性和挑战性,它的意义比它的篇幅大好几倍!
——《金融时报》网站

★泰勒·考恩奠定了自己不可缺少的经济评论家身份。
——《国家评论》

★美国最有影响的一本书——泰勒·考恩的《大停滞》——提出科技创新的高峰出现于1873年(是的,你没看错)。
——《金融城早报》

★经过经济衰退的打击和来自中国的“威胁”,美国急需一个关于的经济衰退的解释。经济学家和博客撰写者泰勒·考恩提供了这样的解释:这个国家已经榨干了技术的汁水……这个挑衅的主题使得《大停滞》成为年度最受热议图书。
——《金融时报》

★《大停滞》这样一部仅15000字的短小精悍的图书,其引发的讨论,已经从博客圈满溢至主流媒体了。
——《经济学人》

★泰勒·考恩的《大停滞》太棒了!如果你想要只是经济到底出了什么问题,你应该马上买一本。事实上,应该买两本。
——《寻找阿尔法》

★这不是考恩的第一本书,但这或许是最重要的一本,至少是最有影响的一本。不只是因为他最终找到了美国当前经济状况的症结,更是因为他开启了一个全新方向的讨论(至少对大多数人而言是全新的),这给他的这本书增值颇多。
——《华尔街日报》

Catalogue

导读:美国大停滞vs.中国机遇涂子沛
中文版序言泰勒·考恩
第一章美好时光不复返
第二章半旧不新的经济体
第三章互联网改变一切吗?
第四章政府的“低垂的果实”
第五章为什么我们会有如此巨大的金融危机?
第六章我们能解决问题吗?
Book Abstract

过去的观念认为,18世纪的工业革命打破了人类的局限,我们可以一直使经济保持高增长。而新的观念是:科技正处在一个高位停滞期,而我们恰恰坐在最顶端,等待着下一次大的革命性成长。
纵观全球,这些富裕了很长时间的国家都有一个共同的特质:经济增长率都从1970年代开始放缓,这其实就是科技发展速度在减缓的一个迹象。并非是某个特定的因素造成了科技增速下降,更多的原因是我们快把老本吃尽了,却没栽种出新的果实。
美国历史上,曾经有过三种最为丰硕的低垂的果实:
1.闲置的土地。直到19世纪末,美国有大量丰饶而廉价的土地闲置着,而且很多土地都靠近湖泊和河流。从欧洲移民过来的人,努力工作,开垦肥沃的美国土地、享受更高的生活水准,比仍然留在欧洲的农民工作的性价比高多了。美国用一个相对较快的速度成为最富有的国家,而且,差不多是在18世纪结束之前,它就已经坐上这把交椅了。丰饶的土地和相对较高的社会自由度,造就了这一场焕然之变。
不仅仅是美国从这片自由之土上收获巨大(不过有一点别忘了,这里面有不少是从原住民那儿窃取的),而且这些丰富的资源也吸引了那些极其聪明又野心勃勃的欧洲工人的到来,令得他们在这片土地上扎根,如同种下低垂的果实。
2.科技成就。从1880年到1940年的这段时间,难以计数的科技进步成果出现在我们的生活当中。这个超级长的科技新成果清单里包括电、电灯、发动机、汽车、飞机、家电、电话、室内自来水、药品、大规模生产技术、打字机、录音机、照相机、收音机……根本说不完,伴随着电视机的发明,这个时期接近尾声。
铁路和国际水路快运虽说不是新鲜东西,但在这个时期,它们得到了快速扩张,将全球经济连接在一起。从更宽的时间范围内看,农业也受益于收割机、除草机和割草机,以及功能高效的农药的出现。这些科技成果中,有很多是先进机器配上能量十足的矿物燃料的产物,这种搭配在人类历史上几乎是空前的,自此,这种用法达到了出神入化的程度。
相形之下,我们的今天除了看上去很神奇的互联网以外,广义的物质生活层面并没有跟1953年差很多。我们仍然开着汽车,用冰箱,按下传统的电灯开关—即使变光器现如今已经非常普遍。卡通系列剧《杰森一家》1里描绘的场景并未出现—你还是没有自己的太空船,还是不能长生不老,也没去看过火星人。尽管生活是比以前好很多,但是,改变的步伐明显比过去的两三代人慢多了。
如果现在有台时空穿越的机器,生活会有很大的改善;但是,有台带有制冰碎冰功能的大冰箱,对生活的改善只有那么一点点。从个人的视角和观点来看,我们都很清楚这种差别,但不知怎么,我们特别不愿意把这个观点套用到经济理论上。然而,这其实就是我们今天的危机背后的真实原因——至少在目前看来,低垂的果实已经差不多被摘光了。
3.聪明但未受教育的孩子。1900年,只有6.4%的适龄美国人从高中毕业;而短短60年之后,1960年,这个数字提升了10倍—占到60%。20世纪60年代末,完成高中教育的适龄人口突破80%,创下最高纪录。但是,自此之后开始回落了6个百分点。
也就是说,在20世纪初,一大批潜在的天才没得到太多教育,相反,他们生生被困在田里种地。想想看,如果能将一个聪明、充满动力的人从封闭的环境中解脱出来,送去读高中,必定会带来更大生产力。不仅如此,我们还要让更多人去读大学。1900年,每400个美国人当中,只有一个上大学;但是到了2009年,18至24岁的人,有40%在大学读书。不过下个世纪,我们无法再保持这样的增速了。而且,在大学的学业完成率等重要的方面,我们反而是在倒退。
……

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