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Jingdong book

估值的艺术:110个解读案例

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估值的艺术:110个解读案例

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价值投资者指南!

《估值的艺术:110个解读案例》以一种务实的心态,阐述了评估公司过往业绩和预期未来业绩所需的所有定量和定性方法。

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《估值的艺术:110个解读案例》以一种务实的心态,阐述了评估公司过往业绩和预期未来业绩所需的所有定量和定性方法。

一只股票是高估了还是低估了?如何评估一家公司的未来前景?如何在实践中运用复杂的估值方法?本书不仅逐个回答了这些问题,而且以一种便捷和务实的方式,阐述了公司估值的相关原则。更重要的是,本书通过下述方式把估值理论与投资实践联系起来:财报分析和解读、商业模式分析、公司估值、股票分析、投资组合管理和价值投资方略。

本书采用的另一个独特的方法是:用真实公司业绩这种实例来说明每一种估值方式。所用实例110个,辅以扎实的理论架构,并为投资者提供了在实践中易于使用的系统方法。

无论是资产管理经理,还是专业投资人士,或是私人投资者,都需要一个靠谱的、较新的和综合的公司估值指南。本书就是为这些读者而写,旨在鼓励它们在证券市场投资时,要像企业家一样运用思维,而不是像投机者那样凭灵感。在过往的实践中,正是这种方法引导许多人成功地进行了长期投资,所获的持续收益胜于偏于投机的投资方式。


Author Description

尼古拉斯·斯密德林

ProfitlichSchmidlinAG公司的创始人和首席执行官。他领导的这家公司是以估值驱动投资的顾问公司——旨在使基础风险最小化的同时,获得较高的绝对收益率。尼古拉斯曾在法兰克福大学学习商业管理专业,随后在伦敦的卡斯商学院学习投资管理专业并以优秀级硕士毕业。此后,在伦敦和法兰克福成为机构客户的投资顾问,他积累了更多的实践经验。


Comments

公司及其顾问需要能够为他们的企业提供精确的估值。本书将提供相关的工具箱(聚焦于市场上实用和流行的方法),有助于读者准确估值。由于本书在公司估值的阐述中,应用了大量的研究案例和其他很好实例,所以,今天需要做公司估值的人,应该人手一册。

——斯科特·莫勒教授

卡斯商学院,并购研究中心主任

对于长期投资所需的技能,尼古拉斯的书提供了翔实的内容。它既是初学者的指南,也内含老手的新知。

——伯特·斯洛斯巴斯

Flossbach Von Storch AG创始人和首席执行官

商学院的学生通常要花费大量的时间,设法掌握金融专业人士在估值公司时所用的各种技能和方法。对于需要做公司估值的人而言,这些众多的方法和技能可能是他们直面挑战的最重要的利器。

尽管公司估值这门学科有着众多复杂模型和海量数据可用,但令人不安的真相是:就公司估值而言,定性的艺术要胜于定量的科学!这就是本书精心阐述的基本真相。

为了说明这个问题,尼古拉斯应用了大量易于理解的实例。以我之见,本书应该是公司估值学生的核心读物。

——安德鲁·克莱尔教授

卡斯商学院,资产管理中心理事长


Catalogue

译者序
致谢
前言
第1章引子/1
1.1商业会计的重要性及其发展/2
1.1.1财务报表的有限作用/6
1.1.2金融领域的特殊性/8
1.2财务报表的成分和结构/8
1.2.1利润表/9
1.2.2资产负债表/22
1.2.3现金流量表/25
1.2.4权益变动表/38
1.2.5附注/39
第2章收益率和盈利能力的主要比率/42
2.1净资产收益率/43
2.2净利润率/47
2.3息税前利润率和息税折旧摊销前利润率/49
2.4资产周转率/51
2.5资产收益率/53
2.6已占用资金收益率/55
2.7经营性现金流收益率/57
第3章财务稳定性比率/59
3.1权益比率/59
3.2资本负债比率/63
3.3动态资本负债比率/66
3.4净负债/息税折旧摊销前利润/71
3.5资本支出比率/72
3.6资产折旧比率/76
3.7生产性资产投资比率/78
3.8现金消耗率/79
3.9流动(非流动)资产与总资产比率/81
3.10权益/固定资产比率权益和长期负债总额与固定资产比率/83
3.11商誉比率/85
第4章运营资本管理的比率/86
4.1应收账款天数和应付账款天数/87
4.2现金比率/90
4.3速动比率/91
4.4流动比率或运营资本比率/92
4.5库存强度/95
4.6库存周转率/96
4.7现金转换周期/97
4.8未完订单和新增订单比率/98
第5章商业模式分析/100
5.1能力范围/102
5.2特征/102
5.3框架条件/106
5.4信息获取/107
5.5行业和企业分析/108
5.6SWOT分析/109
5.7波士顿分析模型/110
5.8竞争战略/117
5.9管理/117第6章利润分配政策/119
6.1红利/119
6.2股份回购/122
6.3小结/126第7章估值比率/129
7.1市盈率/130
7.2市净率/136
7.3价格与现金流比率/143
7.4市销率/145
7.5企业价值法/149
7.6企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润(EV/EBITDA) /154
7.7企业价值/息税前利润(EV/EBIT)/157
7.8企业价值/自由现金流(EV/FCF)/160
7.9企业价值/销售额(EV/sales)/162
第8章公司估值/164
8.1贴现现金流模型法/166
8.1.1权益法/168
8.1.2实体法/177
8.1.3调整现值法(APV)/181
8.1.4经营性和财务性杠杆/183
8.1.5贴现现金流模型的另类使用/187
8.1.6贴现现金流估值案例研究/188
8.2倍数估值法/196
8.2.1公允市盈率法/198
8.2.2公允市净率法/209
8.2.3公允市销率法/224
8.2.4公允企业价值/息税前利润比率法/226
8.2.5公允企业价值/销售额比率法/229
8.2.6倍数估值法:数学背景/232
8.2.7清算法/净资产价值法/233
8.3财务报表的调整/235
8.3.1备考报表和一次性科目影响/238
8.4估值方法概览/239
第9章价值投资/242
9.1安全边际法/245
9.2价值投资策略/246
9.2.1品质投资/246
9.2.2雪茄蒂投资法/246
9.2.3净流动资产价值/套利/247
9.3投资机会的甄别/248
9.4投资组合管理/251
9.4.1多元化/251
9.4.2风险/252
9.4.3现金/252
9.5买入与卖出:投资期限/253
9.5.1买/253
9.5.2卖/253
9.6结论/255
图表来源/257

Introduction

前言众所周知:艺术并非现实,但艺术是一种呓语,促使我们了解现实——至少是那种赋予我们理解力的现实。
——巴勃罗·毕加索本书涉及上市公司的估值及其财报分析。实际上,更适合的书名应该是“非公司估值之作”!在亚马逊网站上,有关公司估值的搜索结果就有超过5000条,有关财报分析的搜索结果也有4000多条。那么,我们为何还需要另一本同类题材的书呢?也许,你已诧异于本书前言的导语!它不是来自著名的经济学家、成功的创业者或出色的投资人,而是出自一位杰出的艺术家。因为,公司估值的底色更多的是艺术,而非科学!
通过扎实分析得到的数据及其比率,的确能就公司的估值给出一个大致的轮廓,但数据不能说明一切!如果单纯通过关键数据及其比率的计算和比较,就足以辨析被低估或有前景的企业,那么,本书就是多余之作,因为一台计算机在眨眼之间就能解决所有的这类问题。
不过,事实并非如此!
依据系统分析的结果,我们仅能得到这样相关的结论:一家公司是如何走到今天的!影响公司未来发展的因素来自各个方面,尤其是那些定性的因素——这恰恰是金融市场相关理论的困惑之处。
当今,多数教科书都是由一些抽象的公式构成(充满了希腊字母),通常都晦涩难懂。因此,本书意在独辟蹊径,决意以一种实用、生动、活用案例的方式,阐述公司估值并进行相关的系统分析。在公司的分析和估值方面,本书将在主流之外,着力通过另类方式,给予读者一种综合实用的解读。
实际上,本书阐述的这种分析方法,就是不时闪现在企业家脑中的方法。同时,这也是为公司股东特备的分析方法,因为他们了解自己所拥有股份的公司是一家真真实实的公司——有真实的雇员、真实的产品和真实的现金流。
本书的目标是想打造这样一种工具:它会在投资分析和决策上,有益于具有企业家精神的投资者,而谢绝那些短线的投机人。单纯的数字是一回事,而对它们进行理性的评价,则完全是另一回事。
综合而论,这些数字可被看作一个魔方的具体构件,而这个魔方则是一家公司内在价值的整体表现。
相比于公司估值的其他教科书,本书在很大程度上摒弃了那些复杂的数学公式和抽象的阐释。它致力于成为务实性的公司估值指南,而非那种枯燥、烦琐和不实用的理论。
乍一看内容,本书明确涉及公司估值的仅有一个章节。实际上,它的内容环环相扣,每个章节都是建立在前一个章节之上,使读者对企业的内在价值有一个完整的了解。
正因为如此,第8章阐述的估值案例分析,是建立在前面那些章节之上的,若没有前面这些章节,就无法理解公司估值,或无法正确应用估值案例,进行相关的分析解读。
估值本身是一个技术流程,而投资者实际的增值行为则蕴含于下述过程之中:理解公司业务并洞悉公司未来价值的驱动要素。
本书内含110个相关案例,分布于不同的章节。每个案例都着力解读估值方法的某个侧面——它的实际应用及其与所涉问题的关联。由于多数投资者聚焦的资本市场仍然是北美和欧洲市场,而且这两个地区采用的财会制度基本相同,所以,本书主要采用的案例基本来自这些市场。不过,考虑到不断增长的新兴市场,我们也呈现了一些新兴市场的相关案例。
考虑到真实性并促使投资者熟悉不同类型的标识方式,在这些案例里仍然保持着特定国家的相关数字和表现方式。因此,如果读者愿意的话,他便能够就某个案例,寻找到它原来的财务报表。另外,在本书上下连续的评述和公式里,相关数字都是采用标准的英文标识,以便确保叙述本身的连贯性。
本书聚焦于上市公司的估值,但也适用于非上市公司。对于时常盯着证券交易所挂牌股票的人而言,再估值和对自己估值的修正,都是自己日常工作的组成部分。
重大的政治决策和其他相关因素(从宏观经济发展到企业战略管理决策)都会影响到公司的公允价值——这种公司估值的艺术性,不仅仅是最具智慧的挑战之一,而且还是人们在金融市场上能够从事的最令人兴奋的行为之一。
除了阐释财报分析和公司估值的技术面外,本书的各个章节都在试图折射这个艺术主题的一个侧面:它的活力及其裨益。
公司估值是一种艺术,因为公司无一例外地处在不断的变化之中,它的内在价值永远无法知晓,但仍有可能定义。
让我们探索黑暗,发掘真知!
尼古拉斯·斯密德林2014年2月于伦敦/法兰克福


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