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Jingdong book

诺贝尔经济学奖获得者丛书：非理性繁荣（第2版）

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Jingdong book

诺贝尔经济学奖获得者丛书：非理性繁荣（第2版）

Name: 诺贝尔经济学奖获得者丛书：非理性繁荣（第2版）
Brand: Jingdong book
SKU: 3110029841
Price: 43.28 USD
Availability: OutOfStock

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《非理性诺贝尔经济学奖获得者丛书：繁荣（第2版）》以一种更加清晰和彻底的方式展示了那些可能动摇经济运行和严重影响人们生活的市场泡沫的产生和破灭。在第一版中，希勒教授成功地预言了股市的下跌，而在《非理性诺贝尔经济学奖获得者丛书：繁荣（第2版）》中，他将研究扩展到了目前炙手可热的房地产市场，用了一章的篇幅来论述美国国内和国际房价的历史走势。在《非理性诺贝尔经济学奖获得者丛书：繁荣（第2版）》中，希勒通过大量的证据来说明，如同20世纪90年代末的股市，目前房地产市场的繁荣中隐含着大量的泡沫，并且最终房价可能在未来的几年中开始下跌。他认为，2000年股市泡沫破灭之后，许多投资者将资金投向房地产市场，这使得美国乃至世界各地的房地产价格均出现了不同程度的上涨。因此，非理性繁荣非没有消失，只是在另一个市场中再次出现。在第一版的基础上，希勒教授描述了金融市场波动的心理根源，并且着力列举和论述了自由市场经济中，资本市场所固有的不稳定性。比如，艾伦?格林斯潘著名的“非理性繁荣”演说给人们带来的影响。他认为，最终摆脱这种困境的途径在于社会制度的改进，比如进一步完善社会保障制度，增加保险品种以保障人们的收入和住房，以及更加分散化的投资选择。

Author Description

罗伯特·希勒（Robert J. Shiller），2013年度诺贝尔经济学奖获得者，耶鲁大学斯坦利·里索（Stanley B.Resor）经济学教授。他先后撰写了《金融新秩序：管理21世纪的风险》（The New Financial Order：Riskinthe 21st Century）、《市场波动》（Market Volatility）、《宏观市场》（MacroMarkets）等著名经济学著作。其中《宏观市场》一书获1996年度保罗·萨缪尔森奖。

Catalogue

第1章股市价格水平的历史回顾
第2章房地产市场的历史回顾

第一篇结构因素
第3章诱发因素：市场经济的疾速发展、互联网以及其他事件
第4章放大机制：自然形成的蓬齐过程

第二篇文化因素
第5章新闻媒体
第6章新时代的经济思想
第7章新时代与全球泡沫

第三篇心理因素
第8章股市的心理定位
第9章从众行为和思想传染

第四篇理性繁荣的尝试
第10章有效市场、随机游走和泡沫
第11章投资者学习和忘却

第五篇采取行动
第12章自由市场中的投机风险
参考文献
索引

Book Abstract

一项关于人类地的基本观察是：那些定期进行沟通和交流的人，他们的想法往往会很相似；同样地，每个时代都有着自己的朝代精神，并且它的影响无处不在。在股票市场中，如果数以百万计的投资者都真的彼此独立，那么任何错误想法所造成的后果鶁地相互抵消，也就不会对价格产生什么影响，但是，如果大多数人的想法是非理性的，而且这些想法又都相似的话，那么它们就足以成为股市兴衰的原因了。因此，想要研究人们的心理因素和思维方式如何在市场中形成合力，进而影响价格的走势，就必须考察人们的思维方式的相似性从何而来。
处于相同时期的人们会作出相似的判断，部分原因是由于他们是在对相同的信息（大家都能获知这一消息）作出反应。但是，我们将在这一章看到，人们的思维方式存在着相似性，这并不一定是由于他们对公共信息作出了理性的反应。而且，公共信息也总是得不到适当的运用或合理解手为。
社会影响与信息
备受推崇的寉心理学家所罗门·阿什（Solomon Asch）在1952年公布过一个实验。对于这个实验，他的解释（这个实验还被其他许多人解释过）是：它表明了社会压力对个人判断的影响十分强烈。当他的论文发表时，公众正对一些问题普遍感到迷惑不解，比如德国纳粹竟有能力让人服服帖帖地去执行对犹太人和“其他不受欢迎”的人种进行大规模种族灭绝的命令。各媒体广泛引用阿什的发现，把它作为人们不能作出完全独立判断的科学依据。直到今天，他的实验结果还被人引用。
……

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