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Jingdong book

中国宏观经济丛书：我国中长期经济发展重大变化研究（2011）

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Jingdong book

中国宏观经济丛书：我国中长期经济发展重大变化研究（2011）

Name: 中国宏观经济丛书：我国中长期经济发展重大变化研究（2011）
Brand: Jingdong book
SKU: 3110196271
Price: 44.32 USD
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《中国宏观经济丛书：我国中长期经济发展重大变化研究（2011）》共分十章，第一章至第四章主要关注人口与劳动力问题，分别研究了劳动力无限供给时期的结束及其对经济的影响，“人口红利”向“人口负债”转变的挑战及应对策略，人力资本增长对经济的影响及加快人力资本增长的制度和政策建议，人口、劳动力城乡分布的变化及其效应；第五章主要关注融资结构，研究了间接融资和直接融资比重变化趋势及其对提高金融效率和防范金融风险的作用，并就如何促进融资结构调整提出了建议；第六章主要关注产业结构，研究了三次产业结构调整趋势，在预测和交叉节点分析基础上提出了相关对策建议；第七章主要关注技术进步，分析了我国技术进步的现状、趋势及其对经济增长的作用，并提出加快技术进步的政策建议；第八章关注需求结构，从国际经验透视我国内外需结构、投资和消费结构的趋势，并对提高消费率提出了建议；第九章关注低碳化，研究了长期低碳化战略与短期经济增长之间的关系，从低碳化发展路径、手段、体制和政策等层面提出应对策略。第十章关注区域经济结构，研究了CDP空间分布格局的现状和趋势，并对该分布从“非均衡状态”向“相对均衡状态”转变的路径和条件提出建议。

Catalogue

第一章劳动无限供给时代的终结——人口数量和结构变化对经济的影响
一、人口数量变化趋势和特征
二、人口结构变化趋势和特征
三、人口增长和结构变化对经济的影响

第二章 “人口红利”转向“人口负债”
一、“人口红利”与“人口负债”的理论解释
二、我国劳动适龄人口增长与“人口红利期”拐点的判断分析
三、“人口红利期”拐点对未来经济社会发展的挑战与影响
四、世界主要国家“人口红利”的比较分析
五、我国应对“人口红利期”拐点的对策建议

第三章劳动力供给减少与人力资本增长
一、问题描述
二、我国劳动力供给变化分析
三、我国人力资本探析
四、我国2011-2020年人力资本加速增长的时间序列预测
五、未来人力资本加速增长对我国GDP增长质量提高的效应
六、适应人力资本加速增长的经济增长战略和政策框架建议

第四章我国城乡人口结构变动的新特征与对策研究
一、我国城乡人口结构变动进程的基本判断
二、我国城乡人口越过交叉点前后的变动新特征
三、我国城乡人口结构转变的基本趋势及其主要挑战
四、促进城乡人口结构有序高效转变的对策建议

第五章我国融资结构变化趋势与对策
一、我国融资结构现状和发展趋势
二、融资结构变化对经济发展的作用
三、融资结构改善面临的突出障碍
四、加快改善融资结构的相关政策建议

第六章改革开放以来我国产业结构变化趋势研究
一、改革开放以来我国三次产业结构调整概述
二、我国三次产业结构存在的问题和原因分析
三、主要国家产业结构变动的总体趋势比较和启示
四、我国三次产业的变化趋势分析和预测
五、大力发展服务业，实现产业协调发展的政策建议

第七章技术进步对经济增长的贡献率研究
一、现有研究述评
二、技术进步内涵的界定
三、我国技术进步现状分析及国际比较
四、技术进步对经济增长贡献率测算

第八章 “十二五”及2020年我国降低出口依存度与提升国民消费率相关问题研究
一、我国出口依存度变动相关问题
二、提升国民消费率相关问题

第九章国民经济发展逐步走向低碳化
一、全球经济低碳化的背景和趋势
二、中国经济发展长期低碳化战略和短期增长之间的平衡
三、中国经济低碳化发展的路径、手段、政策和体制条件
四、中国经济低碳化发展的政策建议

第十章 GDP空间分布格局的趋势性调整
一、GDP空间分布的历史、现状和变化趋势
二、GDP分布格局调整预测
三、从非均衡状态向相对均衡状态转换的可能路径和利弊分析
四、实现GDP区域均衡分布目标的政策和体制条件

Book Abstract

三、人口增长和结构变化对经济的影响
（一）人口减速增长终结无限劳动供给时代
从前面对人口的数量增长以及年龄和生育结构变化，经济发展阶段、城市化、孩子养育成本以及妇女受教育程度、工作和竞争压力等经济因素对育龄妇女生育观念和行为的影响分析看，家庭人口数量选择，育龄妇女是否生孩子，生多少，受政策影响越来越弱，受市场影响越来越强，新生人口的变化越来越受“自觉、自主性内生因素”影响。“自觉、自主性内生因素”又促使育龄妇女集中生育年龄推迟，由20一30岁推迟到20一35岁，从而使年度人口增量由1999年前1000万人以上、2009年以前600万人以上减少到2010年以后的500万人以下这个“可承受区间”，并使人口的数量增长在减速后转入均衡增长轨道。在这种形势下，下一步人口政策要做的主要工作，既不是促使人口进一步减少，也不是大幅度放松人口控制，而应该保持稳定、中性的人口政策取向。在具体措施操作上，双方为多姊妹的夫妇继续坚持“一对夫妇生一个孩”，双方为独生子女的夫妇实行“可生两个孩”的做法。在此政策环境下，育龄妇女的生育行为实现自主选择，自由决定。
（二）快速老龄化抑制长期消费需求
人口增长由加速转为减速、然后转入降中趋稳，将产生两个重要效应：一个效应是劳动力供给由总量过剩转为结构性过剩，人口红利逐步消失。这将对未来生产过程的要素供给环境产生直接影响，其突出表现是工资水平上升，劳动力价格提高，这既会在微观层面增加企业生产成本，降低企业利润预期，在一定程度上限制企业资本再生产能力的形成，又会在宏观层面制约经济增长的空间，相对提高物价总水平，增大长期通货膨胀压力。另一个效应是居民消费倾向受到抑制。一方面，人口增量减少使得居民消费人群规模扩大速度放慢；另一方面，老年人口增加使得老年抚养比提高并促使消费能力较低的人群规模扩大（见图1—9）。
……

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