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Jingdong book

中国:走向2015

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中国:走向2015

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一个伟大的国家需要伟大的梦想,“富民强国”就是我们的“中国梦想”。到2015年,将是一个什么样的中国?如何设计这个目标?又如何实现这个目标?对此,《中国:走向2015》作者进行了系统性、战略性的国情研究,独立地、专业化地进行了精心的设计,前瞻性地、务实性地给出了实现“富民强国”目标的路线图。
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概述
第1章 引言:如何构想与设计中国
1.1 分析框架
1.2 研究方法
1.3 研究特点
1.4本书的创新点
第2章 “十一五”时期发展总体评价
2.1 主要规划目标实现进展评价
2.2 发展初步纳入科学发展轨道
2.3 对“十一五”时期发展诊断
2.4 小结:初步纳入科学发展轨道
第3章 “十二五”时期国际背景
3.1 全球进入后金融危机时代
3.2 后危机时代的国际趋势
3.3 中国面临的历史性机遇
3.4 中国和平崛起面临外部挑战
3.5 小结:中国与世界关系的重大转变期
4.2 中国处于黄金发展期
4.3 向科学发展模式转变的关键时期
4.4 小结:纳入科学发展轨道的关键时期
第5章 “十二五”规划总体思路与指导方针
5.1 新时期的“十大关系”
5.2 “十二五”规划总体思路
5.3 “十二五”规划的基本原则
5.4 小结
第6章 “十二五”发展主要目标与指标
6.1 “十二五”目标制定原则
6.2 “十二五”主要发展目标
6.3 其他量化指标
6.4 凸显绿色发展指标
6.5 小结
第7章 主要任务与政策取向
7.1 经济建设
7.2 生态建设
7.3 社会建设
7.4 政治建设
7.5 文化建设
附录1 五年计划(规划)发展指标历史演变
附1.1 五年计划(规划)指标构成的演变
附1.2 五年计划(规划)指标延续性与创新性
附1.3 指标完成情况评估
附录2“十二五”时期发展指标的含义说明
附2.1 主要量化指标
附2.2 其他量化指标
主要参考文献
图目录
图1-1 “新五化”的福利效应:国民经济发展综合分析框架
图1-2 本书总体分析框架
图2-1 各地区真实人均CDP相对差距(1952-2008年)
图2-2 中国重工业产值占工业总产值比重(1952-2008年)
图4-1 中国、世界、西欧人均GDP比较(1950-2015年)
图4-2 中国劳动报酬占国民总收入比重变化(1978-2007年)
图4-3 中国和印度农村人口比较(1978-2020年)
图4-4 中国社会冲突指数(1985-2006年)
表目录
表1-1 “十二五”规划总体战略框架
表2-1 “十一五”经济社会发展主要指标进展(2005-2008年)
表2-2 中央政府公共服务财政支出占总支出比例(1993-2008年)
表2-3 三大需求对CDP(支出法)增长贡献率(2003-2008年)
表2-4 资源、环境主要指标情况对比(“十五”-“十一五”)
表2-5 安全生产死亡率主要指标(2005-2008年)
表3-1 三大机构对世界主要经济体GDP)曾长率的预测(2007-2011年)
表3-2 全球公共产品的供给与需求情况
表3-3 中国主要指标居世界位次(1978-2015年)
表4-1 中国HDI及在世界排位变化(1950-2015年)
表4-2 城乡居民家庭恩格尔系数变化(1978-2015年)
表4-3 中国人口主要指标(1970-2030年)
表4-4 中国经济增长及其来源(2006-2015年)
表4-5 中国工业化主要指标(1952-2008年)
表4-6 中国主要科技指标占世界比重与排名(2003-2015年)
表4-7 中国能源生产、消费主要指标占世界总量比重(1980-2030年)
表4-8 中国与世界气候变化受灾人口(1990-2007年)
表4-9 中国城乡五等分收入组收入差距(2000-2008年)
表4-10 不同时期的经济增长率与就业增长率(1980-2008年)
表6-1 “十二五”规划主要指标(24个)
表6-2 “十二五”规划其他指标(23个)
附表1-1 各五年计划(规划)不同类型量化指标比例(“六五”-“十一五”)
附表1-2 相对于前一五年计划指标保留与更新比例(“六五”-“十一五”)
附表1-3 十个五年计划的目标完成情况评估
专栏目录
专栏1-1 中国“新五化”
专栏2-1 老问题、新挑战:中国经济增长模式的转变
专栏4-1 中国要避免落人“中等收入陷阱”
专栏4-2 气候变化对中国的影响
专栏5-1 从“可持续发展”到“绿色发展”
专栏7-1 五大现代化基础设施网络建设
Book Abstract

第2章 “十一五”时期发展总体评价
2.1主要规划目标实现进展评价
“十一五”时期我国社会主义现代化建设取得重大进展,经济平稳快速增长,人民生活水平和质量再上新台阶,与发达国家发展差距明显缩小,向全面建设小康社会总目标更进一步;对外开放进入新阶段,全方位外交取得重大成果,综合国力大幅度提升,国际地位和在世界上的影响显著提高。
我们对“十一五”规划前三年的进展给予如下详细评价:
1.经济增长提前完成
“十一五”的前三年(2006-2008年),是经济社会发展取得突出成就,也是国际形势复杂多变,国内各种矛盾进一步凸显的三年。2006年国内生产总值增长率为11.6%,2007年更是攀升到13%,前两年国内生产总值年均增长12.3%,大大高于7.5%的预期目标。
到2007年后半年,出现了国际石油价格、矿产价格、粮食价格飞涨,国内价格水平上涨过快等经济过热的势头。到2008年下半年,受国际金融海啸的冲击,中国宏观经济形势急转直下,出口快速下滑。根据海关总署的数据,2008年11月中国出口出现负增长,并持续扩大,到2009年1月,已经达到-17.5%。2008年GDP增长率下降到9.6%。但即便如此,也已提前实现了经济增长的规划目标。按不变价格计算,国内生产总值三年累计完成五年规划目标的95.7%,人均国内生产总值已经累计完成五年规划目标的96.3%。对外贸易前两年快速增长,2008年下半年以来出现了出口和进口增幅双双回落,11月份开始出现负增长,2008年货物进出口总额达到2.56万亿美元,完成率相当于规划中2010年预期指标(2.3万亿美元)的111%。此外,外汇储备继续大幅度增加,从2005年末的0.8万亿美元,增加到2008年末的1.9万亿美元,超过日本跃居世界第一。

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