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Jingdong book

比较·2016年第1辑(总第82辑)

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当前,我国经济面临“三期叠加”和“四降一升”的严峻挑战。面对这些挑战,必须着力推进供给侧结构改革,推动经济的持续稳定发展。从供给侧来说,有三个因素,即投资、劳动、效率。现在的情况是,我们的人口红利逐渐消失,新增劳动力正在减少;多年以来由于加大投资已经带来一系列问题,不能继续;经济运行中出现的问题往往归因于效率太低。由此,主编吴敬琏教授早在几年前就一直强调,我国经济增长方式和发展方式要转轨,要找到新的动力,只能依靠经济增长的动力从增加投资转向增加索洛余值,也就是要创新,要提高全要素生产率(TFP),也即提高供给的效率。《比较》第82辑以此为主题,为读者们提供了若干文章。


Author Description

吴敬琏,现任国务院发展研究中心研究员,中欧国际工商学院(CEIBS)宝钢经济学讲席教授,北京大学、中国社会科学院研究生院教授,《比较》辑刊、《洪范评论》主编,国家信息化专家咨询委员会副主任、国家规划顾问委员会副主任,国际经济学会(IEA)荣誉主席,北京乐平基金会发起理事,阿拉善生态基金理事会理事长。吴敬琏倡导并努力推进市场化、法治化、民主化的改革,是“整体改革学派”的主要代表人物之一。他的研究成果,对中国改革和经济发展转型的实践产生了重要影响。


Catalogue

经济增长:快与慢 安德鲁·霍尔丹

产业政策和竞争 菲利普·阿吉翁等

产业政策和发展:政治经济学视角 詹姆斯·罗宾逊

过早去工业化 丹尼·罗德里克

就业保护法的经济学分析 J.H.韦尔克尔克

资本主义和社会主义:评科尔奈的《动态变化、竞争和剩余经济》 许成钢

欧盟排放交易体系的结构性改革 斯特凡·施莱歇 安德烈·马尔库等

澳大利亚医疗卫生体制研究 余晖 何静


Introduction

安德鲁·霍尔丹的文章“经济增长:快与慢”探讨金融危机后全球经济的增长前景和增长源泉。他把考察全球经济增长的时点追溯至公元前1000 年,用各种不同的经济增长指标来分析三千多年来的增长态势。这些分析表明,人类社会长期缺乏经济增长的加速器,处于停滞状态,直至工业革命才走出停滞,步入历时两百多年的创新和增长通道。他着重从经济学、历史学、社会学和心理学等视角,综合剖析了工业革命得以产生的技术和社会根源。在霍尔丹看来,在促进增长方面,社会因素的变化,如社会中的合作和信任、制度和基础设施、政府角色、耐心等,支持了技术变革或领先于技术变革,因此,社会因素的变化至少发挥了和技术变革同样重要的作用。对于未来的经济增长,他认为,“技术进步对经济增长具有强大的促进作用,同时阻碍经济增长的社会因素也不容忽视,在这两股力量的共同作用下,未来的增长将徘徊在平凡与神奇之间。”

2015 年底中央经济工作会议将“产业政策要准”作为推进结构性改革的五大政策支柱之一。我们特意选取了两篇论述产业政策的文章,也许可以为实施“准”的产业政策提供启发。新经济增长理论的领军人物菲利普·阿吉翁等人的文章“产业政策和竞争”以中国为背景,讨论什么样的产业政策可以提高生产率,进而推动增长。作者们使用1998—2007 年中国工业企业数据库大中型工业企业数据,从实证角度研究补贴、税收减免、(低息)贷款和关税等产业政策对企业生产率增长的影响。实证研究的结果表明,在竞争性部门实施的产业政策(补贴或税收减免)、旨在维持或者促进竞争的产业政策(比如引导企业进入或者鼓励新企业发展),对生产率增长具有更显著的促进作用。在初始竞争更为激烈的部门实施补贴和免税这样的产业政策,能够改善企业的表现,而实施(低息)贷款和关税补贴这样的产业政策,则不能改善企业的表现。作者们还指出,为了使产业内的利益集团对产业政策施加的影响最小化,应以更分散、更有利于竞争的方式实施扶持型产业政策。詹姆斯·罗宾逊的文章,从政治经济学的角度探讨产业政策对经济发展的作用。在国际上,产业政策不乏成功和失败的案例。这些案例一方面说明产业政策可以是社会所需要的,并有可能促进经济增长和发展;另一方面,与任何对社会有益的政策一样,产业政策也受制于具体社会的政治均衡特征,比如哪些利益团体能被动员,关系到怎样的利益,处于怎样的政治体制环境中。在这些政治因素的影响下,即使能推出产业政策,也未必会采取理想的形式。因此,仅仅提出好的产业政策是不够的,我们还必须考虑这些好建议如何能被掌握政治权力的群体自愿采纳。

在一国经济实现增长、从低收入国家向高收入国家转型的过程中,工业化是最重要的推动力。然而,发展中国家近年来却出现了过早去工业化的现象。在“过早去工业化”一文中,罗德里克利用三个工业化测量指标——制造业就业占比、按当前价格计算的制造业增加值占比、按不变价格计算的制造业增加值占比,详细描述了不同类别的国家之间的去工业化格局,并根据这些指标和收入之间的关系,界定了发展中国家相对于发达国家的过早去工业化现象。他进一步阐释了发展中国家去工业化现象的成因,其中全球化是一个重要因素。罗德里克认为,过早去工业化对发展中国家并非好事,它踢走了经济借以快速上升的“梯子”,还可能产生不利的政治后果。对尚处于向高收入国家转型的中国经济来说,工业化仍然至关重要,罗德里克的分析值得我们加以重视。

“法和经济学”栏目是美国弗吉尼亚大学法学教授韦尔克尔克的文章“就业保护法的经济学分析”。这是一篇综述性文章,较为全面地梳理了法学界和经济学界对这个领域的研究文献,包括从国际比较的视角研究就业保护法如何影响劳动力市场,用企业层面的数据研究就业保护法的改革对经济产出和经济行为的影响,以美国各州就业保护法的不同变化来研究就业保护法对劳动力流动、就业、雇员人力资本投资等方面的影响,从政治经济学角度研究就业保护法的渊源和政治动力机制。这些研究为全面认识就业保护法的影响提供了有益的参考。

“新书架”栏目是许成钢为匈牙利经济学家科尔奈教授的新书《动态变化、竞争和剩余经济》而作的书评。这篇书评从一般均衡和方法论,资本主义和社会主义的基本特点,资本主义和社会主义动态变化的政治经济学,以及资本主义、社会主义和列宁式国家资本主义等方面,分析并归纳了科尔奈著作的主要观点和软预算约束这样的重要概念。许成钢认为,科尔奈著作的创新之处在于通过资本主义和社会主义的比较研究阐释了资本主义的特点。

斯特凡·施莱歇和安德烈·马尔库等人的“欧盟排放交易体系的结构性改革”一文分析了欧盟现行排放交易体系中存在的问题,提出了改进该体系的三个一揽子改革方案,并评估了这三个改革方案的可行性。作者们还简要介绍了韩国、美国、中国等国家的排放交易体系,比较了它们与欧盟排放交易体系的不同特点。

比较之窗栏目是余晖等人的“澳大利亚医疗卫生体制研究”一文。文章较为详细地介绍了澳大利亚的国民医疗照顾制度、卫生服供给方的制度安排、卫生体系的行政管理体制、卫生资金的筹措和支付制度,并对中国的医疗卫生体制改革提出了建议。


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