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Jingdong book

2020:走向全面小康社会

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2020:走向全面小康社会

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《2020:走向全面小康社会:“十三五”规划研究报告》是由中国社会科学院一批知名专家学者配合国家“十三五”规划的制定,就国家实施“十三五”时期经济社会发展重大问题进行专题研究形成的研究报告集,书中深入分析了未来五年以及更长时间我国经济社会发展的环境、趋势和问题,提出了未来发展的思路和对策,有利于于我们思考我国在经济新常态下的发展战略和发展路径选择,更深刻领会党的十八届五中全会的精神和战略部署。
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李培林,男,1955年5月生,山东济南市人。现任中国共产党十八届中央委员会候补委员、中国社会科学院副院长、党组成员、中国社会科学院学部委员、学部主席团成员、中国社会科学院社会学研究所所长、中国社会科学院哲学社会科学创新工程社会学研究所首席管理、研究员、博士生导师。1972年在山东师范毕业大学附中高中毕业。1977年考入山东大学哲学系,1982年毕业后考取出国留学生,到北京语言学院集中学法语。1983年赴法留学,1984年获得法国里昂大学硕士学位,1987年获法国巴黎大学(索邦大学)社会学博士学位。1988年与夫人一起回国,到中国社会科学院社会学研究所从事研究工作,在城乡社会学研究室。1989年晋升副研究员,1990年任工业社会学研究室主任。1992年破格晋升研究员,并被授予“国家有突出贡献专家”,1993年起担任博士生导师并享受政府特贴。1993年任中国社会科学院社会学研究所副所长兼研究生院社会学系主任。2011年3月当选为中国社会科学院学部委员。2012年11月,当选为中国共产党中央委员会候补委员。主要研究领域为社会发展、社会结构、企业组织和社会政策。

蔡昉,男,1956年9月生于北京。现任中国社会科学院学部委员、副院长、党组成员。1982年毕业于中国人民大学农业经济系,获经济学学士学位,研究员。1985年毕业于中国社会科学院研究生院,获经济学硕士学位,1989年获经济学博士学位。1985年以来,曾任中国社会科学院农村发展研究所助理研究员、副研究员,并任研究室主任,1993年被评为研究员后,调任中国社会科学院人口研究所副所长并兼任中国社会科学院研究生院人口学系主任,1998年起任中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所所长,博士生导师,并任《中国人口科学》杂志主编。2008年3月任全国人大常委、农业与农村委员会委员。兼任中国人口学会和中国农业经济学会副会长、农业部软科学委员会委员、劳动与社会保障部专家委员会委员等。主要研究领域包括:劳动经济学、人口经济学、中国经济增长、收入分配等。近年获张培刚发展经济学优秀成果奖、中国软科学奖、中国发展百人奖、中华人口奖、孙冶方经济科学奖和中国出版政府图书奖等。
Catalogue

践行五大发展理念全面建成小康社会(代序言)
“十三五”时期我国经济社会发展的主要趋势和重大思路
“十三五”时期全面建成小康社会的目标及2030年展望
“十三五”时期全面建成小康社会的机制问题及对策
“十三五”时期农业、农村、农民发展改革研究
“十三五”时期中国工业转型升级研究
“十三五”时期我国服务业发展改革研究
“十三五”时期我国财税改革与发展
“十三五”时期我国金融体系改革
“十三五”时期及未来中长期创新驱动发展战略研究
“十三五”时期坚持和完善社会主义经济制度及其对策研究
“十三五”时期提高对外开放水平研究
“十三五”时期资源环境发展战略研究
“十三五”时期城镇化和区域发展战略研究
“十三五”时期就业发展战略研究
“十三五”时期收入分配问题及对策研究
“十三五”时期社会保障制度改革前瞻
“十三五”时期中国人口发展战略及应对人口老龄化对策
“十三五”时期全面推进依法治国若干问题研究
“十三五”时期我国文化发展环境和重大问题研究
“十三五”时期社会心理和舆论引导研究
“十二五”发展规划实施情况的总体评估
后记
Introduction

践行五大发展理念全面建成小康社会(代序言)
蔡昉
党的十八届五中全会通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十三个五年规划的建议》(以下简称《建议》)从全局性、根本性、方向性和长远性着眼,确立了“十三五”时期我国经济社会发展新理念,即创新发展、协调发展、绿色发展、开放发展和共享发展五大理念。这五大发展理念,认真总结了国内国外发展的经验和教训,凝聚了各个方面的发展共识,有助于破解我国发展中存在的不平衡、不协调和不可持续的问题,回应了广大人民群众对发展的新期待,是助推“十三五”时期全面建成小康社会决胜阶段经济社会发展的科学理念。
制定背景:发展阶段新变化
人类关于发展的理论和实践经历了长时间探索,形成过不尽相同乃至大相径庭的认识及其理论概括。特定发展阶段的主要矛盾决定了主流发展理念和主攻方向。在较早的发展阶段上,发展往往局限于经济领域,尤其强调经济总量扩大,造成以经济增长替代更广义发展的理论和实践倾向。这种倾向在特定发展阶段上一经形成,则导致发展目标的狭隘性、发展模式的偏倚性和发展结果的局限性。在资本稀缺、劳动力相对过剩和居民收入普遍低下的发展阶段中,以国内生产总值(GDP)增长为导向的发展,无疑有助于扩大经济总量、增加就业、提高居民收入,是增强国力和改善民生的必要前提。
随着发展进程的不断变化,发展条件和发展环境也必然发生变化,不仅在以往的发展理念及其所指导的实践中,长期存在的问题会逐渐积累、日益凸显,而且一些曾经行之有效的理念和实践,也会随时间的变化而趋于失效。因此,发展理念不应该也不可能是一成不变的,而需根据变化了的发展环境和发展条件,通过回应发展的目的是什么,发展不可以且不应该承担的代价是什么,发展应该以何种方式、路径和手段实现,发展的着力点需要放在哪里,发展绩效应该如何衡量,以及发展的成果如何得到共享等问题而与时俱进。
我国发展阶段变化的突出特点及对它的准确概括,是经济发展进入以增长速度换挡、结构调整加速和增长动力转换为特征的新常态。在我国经济发展进入新常态之际,虽然同时遭遇了一定的周期性冲击,如全球贸易增速减缓,为政策应对增加了复杂性和难度,但是,周期性因素不是新常态的本质特征。单纯强调外部因素或周期因素,而不能抓住造成经济下行压力的主导性的结构性因素,政策就容易偏向采用刺激性手段,形成政府越俎代庖配置资源,或者用补贴引导企业投资的现象。这样刺激出的增长速度,由于没有伴随着企业竞争力的提高、财政能力的增强从而公共产品供给的扩大,不能达到增加有效供给、改善民生的目的,甚至会贻误调结构和转方式战机。因此,对经济形势的判断要统一到新常态特征上来,促进发展必须把五大理念贯穿始终。
五大理念:目标导向与问题导向相统一
创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享的发展理念,充分反映了党的十八大以来我们党治国理政的新理念、新思想和新战略,对关于发展的目的、方式、路径、着力点、衡量和共享等方面的问题做出了全面回应,具体体现了目标导向与问题导向的统一。
创新发展着眼于培养新常态下经济增长新动力。改革开放后我国经济实现长达34年平均9.8%的高速增长,主要依靠体现在劳动力和土地的低成本优势与技术后发优势上的供给因素,以及居民收入提高、基础设施建设和对外开放带来的巨大需求因素。随着2010年我国成为世界第二大经济体,人均GDP进入中等偏上收入国家行列,同时,15~59岁劳动年龄人口总量达到峰值,人口抚养比抵达从下降转而上升的拐点,经济发展阶段发生了根本性的变化,支撑高速增长的传统动力相应式微。

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