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Jingdong book

2050：重塑世界的朱格诺

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Books Economy World Economy

Jingdong book

2050：重塑世界的朱格诺

Name: 2050：重塑世界的朱格诺
Brand: Jingdong book
SKU: 3110206021
Price: 43.48 USD
Availability: OutOfStock

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一项实事求是的评估表明，在未来几十年里新兴经济体的增长势头还可能继续，当然是在国际社会减轻诸如气候变化、地缘政治崩溃、金融危机，尤其是贸易保护主义等一系列重大风险的情况。如若这些风险被抑制，接下来的四十年内将可能出现非凡的变化。到2050年，（按平均购买力计算）中国经济的规模将接近美国经济的两倍，印度将成为世界第三大经济体，而欧洲国家将不能跻身世界的前八大经济体。在《2050：重塑世界的朱格诺》一书中，作者尤里·达杜什、威廉·肖通过贸易、金融、移民和全球公地这四条国际经济合作的主线来确定这种变动趋势的影响。

Content Description

朱格诺是什么？是一种搅动格局的强大力量。
朱格诺代表什么？新兴经济体正以前所未有的速度、规模甚至方式，从贸易、金融、移民和全球公地问题的维度全面冲击着旧有的世界格局、考验着现有的国际秩序。
朱格诺意味着什么？2050年，世界发展的主宰力量或将转移，新兴经济体将逐渐接掌未来的全球资源分配。
这一过程怎样开启并将如何推进？在《2050：重塑世界的朱格诺》中，卡内基国际和平基金会宏观经济专家尤里·达杜什、威廉·肖给出了他们的答案。

Author Description

尤里·达杜什（Url Dadush），卡内基国际和平基金会的高级研究员，经济学家智库的会长以及麦肯锡公司的顾问。

威廉·肖（William Shaw），卡内基国际和平基金会的访问学者，世界银行、非洲开发银行等组织的顾问。

Catalogue

序
致谢
缩写表
第一章导论：谁来接管地球
第二章我们是如何走到今天的：一部发展简史
第三章 2050年：世界变了
第四章贸易：发展的大舞台
第五章金融：给马上缰
第六章移民：被忽视的全球化支柱
第七章全球公地：二十一世纪的悲剧？
第八章非洲：这块大陆会有所突破吗？
第九章正视变化：呼唤全球意识
附录支持长期预测的模型
卡内基国际和平基金会简介
译后记

Book Abstract

《2050：重塑世界的朱格诺》：
持续下降的原因已被广泛探讨过了，包括相对于制成品和服务，初级商品的需求弹性低，替代品的增长以及快速的技术进步降低了种植或提取这些材料的成本。
此外，基本制成品的价格相对于知识密集型的产品和服务预计将继续下降。制成品相对于服务的价格下降是经济发展的良性表现。1950～2000年，美国制造业的生产率年增长率为2.8%，而非农产业整体的年增长率为2.0%。1990～2002年，制造业劳动生产率的相对增长速度更是令人印象深刻：年增长率为3.9%，而非农产业整体年增长率为2.3%。这种强大的生产力上的改变，降低了生产制成品的成本，因此它们的价格相对于服务也就下降了。
乍一看，包括中国和印度在内的发展中大国在加速增长中对初级产品的大量需求，会阻挡初级产品价格的下降趋势，因为中国和印度是能源、材料和许多农产品的净进口国。然而需要考虑三个起始效用。
首先，发展中国家在商品的生产和使用上的技术都广泛进步了，这将增加供应而减少需求。例如，联合国粮食与农业组织（FAO）和经济合作与发展组织（OECD）认为农业生产力很可能实现中期增长，而且指明了是在中欧、东欧以及撒哈拉以南的非洲。如果实施现有技术的话，农业生产力将可以显著上升。
其次，对商品的投资也将上升。这在农业上的体现是再清楚不过的了，用更多的土地来进行种植的潜力是巨大的。目前，有14亿公顷的土地用于农作物生产。
……

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