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人民的选择:选民如何在总统选战中做决定(第3版)

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《人民的选择:选民如何在总统选战中做决定(第3版)》作为美国学术史上里程碑式的作品之一,为大众传播研究在研究方法和研究设计上做出了开创性贡献。本书通过对1940年美国大选中的民意进行研究,深入浅出地阐释了媒介效果、人的社会属性和选战期间的人际联系,提出了在今天新媒体时代越发受重视的“两级传播流”和“意见领袖”等概念,从而成就了本书的学术价值,奠定了主要作者拉扎斯菲尔德作为“工具制造者”的传播学先驱地位。
Author Description

保罗·F·拉扎斯菲尔德(1901—1976),美国社会学家,哥伦比亚大学应用社会研究所创办人。他的研究范围相当广泛,涉及大众传播、选举与选民心理、市场研究、民意测验、失业、教育心理、数理社会学等领域。他对社会研究方法颇有贡献,被誉为“现代经验社会学创始人”。不仅如此,还提出了传播学中的“两级传播流”、“意见领袖”等概念。

伯纳德·贝雷尔森(1912—1979),美国行为科学家,以研究传播和大众媒介而闻名。1941年后开始从事公众舆论研究,1944年加入哥伦比亚大学应用社会研究所。1952年成为行为科学高级研究中心主任,此后担任人口委员会主席。

黑兹尔·高德特(1908—1975),美国舆论研究学者。她是哥伦比亚大学广播研究室成员之一,此前,参加普林斯顿广播研究项目。离开广播研究室以后,曾和社会学家C·赖特·米尔斯(C.WrightMills)合作研究过劳工领袖。1947年离开学术领域投入现实政治生活。1961年后一直运用调查研究法从事舆论研究。“
Catalogue

第一章 导论
一种新的研究方法
读者指南
第二章 1940年的俄亥俄州伊利县
该县的经济
该县与政治
研究设定
第三章 共和党人与民主党人的社会差异
社会一经济地位的作用
宗教关联与年龄
政治既有倾向指数
第四章 共和党人与民主党人的意识形态差异
经济和社会态度
政治的“外向性”
欧洲战事
党派性与党争
第五章 参与大选
谁对大选感兴趣
对选战的最低程度的参与——不投票者
对选战的最高程度的参与——意见领袖
第六章 做出最后决定的时段
兴趣与做出决定的时段
多重压力与做出决定的时段
多重压力的影响
兴趣与多重压力
第七章 转变的类型
做出最后决定的时刻与转变者
兴趣、多重压力和转变者
转变者的个性特征
转变者的易变性
对转变者的描述
第八章 激活效果
激活过程
激活的四个阶段
宣传唤起注意
兴趣提高引致接触增多
注意是选择性的
选意确定
关于激活的一些例子
第九章 强化效果
党派性、党派性接触与党派性的强化
被强化者描述的强化
第十章 倒戈效果
倒戈效果举例——第三任期议题
威尔基——穷人的斗士
“怀疑者”
第十一章 选战的整体效果
1936年11月—1940年5月与1940年5月—10月比较
选战效果评估
第十二章 赢家预测
预期的变化
“从众”效应
第十三章 选民被告知什么
党派性:在什么程度上支持谁
主体:重心和论旨
选战的中心:罗斯福
选战的目标:历史、金钱和保障
手段:少说为妙
情感性术语:选战的标签
第十四章 广播与印刷媒介
接触的集中点
谁曾经阅听政治
广播与报纸:何者更有影响?
广播与报纸作为转变的缘由
两党各自的媒介
杂志——专门化的传播媒介
第十五章 社会群体的政治同质性
社会分层与政治同质性
家庭的政治结构
正式社团的角色
使意见一致
作为一种社会经验的投票决定
第十六章 个人影响的性质
人际交往触及未做决定者
两级传播流
人际交往的无目的性
反击抵制时的灵活性
顺从的回报
对亲密消息来源的信任
无信念的劝说
实际意蕴
注释
附录 指数的构造
政治既有倾向指数(IPP)
政治活跃度指数
意见广度指数
围绕选战的杂志阅读指数
围绕选战的报纸阅读指数
围绕选战的广播收听指数
对选战的总体或整体接触信息指数
政治接触偏向指数
认同某一方论点的指数
Book Abstract

选战的中心:罗斯福 在美国有这样的政治说法:总统选战开展了,但总统选举只决定支持和反对其中一位候选人,而不是两个。因此,1928年的选战据说定位于支持或反对艾尔?史密斯的基调上,1932年的焦点人物应该是胡佛,1936年则为罗斯福。无论在何种程度上,这种说法在这几次以及早年的大选中都被证实了,至少就选战宣传而言,1940年大选的状况就给出了一些证据。不过,首先要对一般性概括进行小心翼翼地求证。如果说最近的哪次选战可以支持这种说法,那么当属1940年大选,在这次大选中,已经度过了两个富有历史意义的任期的罗斯福带着自己争议颇多的政治履历准备再次参加选举。他的对手,一个政治上的新手,没有任何自己的履历可依,差不多是被迫参照现任者掌握的行政方式进行自身定位。选战的情况从表面上看支持这种说法——对于每次大选来说这几乎是确定无疑的。在报刊和广播的选战材料中,支持威尔基的素材比例略微超过2:1,但是以罗斯福为焦点的这一比例却达到了3:2,故而党派性与聚焦程度远远不同。无论是支持共和党还是民主党的材料,对罗斯福的关注均超越其对手。换句话说,前者反对罗斯福甚于支持威尔基,后者支持罗斯福甚于反对威尔基。选战的目标:历史、金钱和保障 政治选战的主要目标在于赢得选举。然而,为了实现这一目标,候选人必须给选民提供一些诱因来获取选票。上文中显而易见的是,大多数选战宣传含有显示“我们的政策”好而抨击“他们的政策”糟的意图。但是,为什么这些政策被认定为好或糟?被认为正当的政策、计划、决策、信念、行为、(未来)目标和(过往)成果是什么?选民用他的选票能换取什么?答案暗示了候选人及其选战经理认为哪些是对美国选民最有效的诉求。

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