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Jingdong book

丁兴良讲工业4.0:一本书读懂工业4.0

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德国提出的工业4.0风靡全球,成为全世界制造业共同关注的热点,中国也不例外。为了进一步探讨工业4.0,本书结合德国工业4.0和中国制造2025战略,从多个角度对此话题进行了解读和分析,并着重阐述了中国在工业4.0方面的机遇和挑战。指出了我国工业制造业存在的问题、努力的方向、实现的方法和途径。阅读本书,就会对工业4.0有一个更直观、系统的认识。对于想轻松了解工业4.0的读者来说,本书是一个很好的选择。
Author Description

丁兴良,中国工业品实战营销创始人,工业品营销研究院院长、咨询顾问。工业品营销管控系统创始人、卡位战略营销理论的开创者,中欧国际工商管理学院EMBA。
2004年荣登中国人力资源精英榜“十大杰出培训师”;2009年中央电视台《财富里外理》栏目特约专访;2009年著作《营销突围策略》获登2009年中国营销杰出著作榜;2012年荣获“金典奖—中国工业品营销咨询服务具影响力杰出领军人物”16年潜心致力于工业品营销的专业培训与咨询,300多家工业品营销咨询项目经验,3000多场的营销培训经验,出版工业品营销专业书籍70本持续畅销。对工业品营销战略、品牌战略、组织设计、薪酬绩效、业务管控、渠道管理、人才压模建设、服务营销、大客户营销、项目性营销等领域有独到的研究和深厚的咨询经验。
Catalogue

第一章 工业4.0大背景
梳理工业制造业的发展脉络
第四次工业革命真的到来了吗
工业4.0,德国为什么
再工业化:金融危机敲醒了美国
市场需求反逼工业升级
制造业信息化革命大趋势
不能指望靠规模降低成本了
德国工业4.0发展现状
第二章 工业4.0的概念和实质
工业4.0的基本特征、主题和支柱
两个基点:物联网和服务网
工业4.0实现的先决条件
智能化:信息化和自动化的高度集成
新工业革命的核心技术
工业4.0本身就是一个产品
客户定制消费的时代
工业4.0时代的商业模式

第三章 工业制造业的未来
现在与未来的合作
虚拟与现实结合
从定性模拟到定量数字化
价值链数据无缝连接
数字化企业平台解决方案
产品指挥机器的时代
云安全网络及多模式交互
机器与机器对话
第四章 工业4.0将会带来什么
工业4.0改变生活方式
改变生产模式和产业形态
催生全新的价值链
电商会因工业4.0 而消失
去渠道化:服务业将何去何从
工业4.0 会消灭那些行业
工业4.0使产品高质、员工高薪
工业4.0 带来的投资机会
第五章 中国面临的机遇和挑战
世界工业制造的.X时代
行走在通往4.0的路上
工业4.0面临的挑战
网联之后,下一步做什么
将逐渐告别微笑曲线
沿着智能制造的方向前进
即将到来的机器人时代
启动工业4.0的标准制定
4.0是工业革命的终点吗

第六章 工业4.0,中国怎么办
世界工业4.0中国的位置
工业4.0对中国意味着什么
中国工业4.0的萌芽
工业4.0与中国制造2025
谁是中国工业的前沿创新力
中国工业4.0的两个障碍
行走在正确的道路上
中国工业4.0路线图
Book Abstract

有人大声疾呼第四次工业革命到来了,真的到来了吗?答案是没有。目前工业制造仍然处于工业3.0阶段,最多可以认为是处于“后3.0时代”。如此定性的依据是,目前还尚未出现像蒸汽轮机、电、计算机那样的具有划时代意义的技术产品,不足以带动工业制造进入下一个发展阶段。
德国是世界上顶尖的工业制造强国,德国的工业制造发达程度没有谁能够比得上,之所以提出工业4.0,是忧患意识的表现,也是为了继续保持制造业的领先地位而启动的战略性举措,也并没有说已经进入4.0阶段了,而是在为工业4.0做准备。对于美国而言,中低端的工业制造业本来就大多数外迁,2008年金融危机之后,认识到实体经济比虚拟经济更可靠,开始呼吁“再工业化”,这样的状况下,不可能被认为已经进入4.0时代了。中国目前的工业制造水平甚至连3.0的程度都没有实现,甚至有人认为必须得补上2.0的功课,就更谈不上已经进入4.0时代了,只能说是制造大国,离制造强国的距离还很遥远。
德国提出未来的工业制造将在云计算和大数据的支持下,依托物联网实现工业的智能化,是继蒸汽机、电气化、自动化之后的又一次大变革。这种判断是正确的,但在吸收这一概念的同时,也要保持头脑清醒,不要一听到新名词就随风而去,不要被忽悠了。我们要正确判断自己的实情,制定符合实际的发展策略和路子,不能驴学马走,在尚未完成3.0的摊子上,向4.0大跃进并不是明智之举,稳扎稳打是良训。
德国人之所以上心,把工业智能化升级纳入国家发展计划,是因为人家有优秀的工业3.0的底子。德国确实朝着智能化方向急速前进了,在2010年的《高技术战略2020》中,就已经将工业升级计划列入未来十大项目,而且建立了示范共产,开始先行试验,在各项技术标准上做先行探索。我国也在青岛建立类似的试验基地,试验肯定没有错,但要认清我国工业制造的大背景,认识到工业发展是一个渐进的过程,虽然在某些方面也可以跨越式发展,但总体上必须得一步一个脚印地往前走,欲速则不达。我国的工业发展路子不能完全跟着德国和美国这样的制造强国走,要走有自己特点的发展路子,先静下心来把信息化的工作做好做扎实,然后再琢磨4.0的事情。可以让国内信息化程度比较高的企业先行试验,慢慢摸索出一套好的方法,为将来推广普及做准备。
工业制造智能化不是简简单单就能实现的,需要诸多技术条件,管理思想也得转变,而且不同的企业有不同的情况,需要因企业制宜,许多难题需要慢慢解决,不能急于求成,好奇心要有,但不能把好奇心当作驱动力。
前三次工业革命可以分别概括为机械化、电气化和信息化,如果将第四次工业革命定位为智能化未尝不可,建立在彻底信息化基础上的工业制造完全可以实现智能化制造的目的。
工业4.0时代的工业制造无异于是智造——智能化的制造,在工业网的支持下,整合所有链条上的生产和营销要素,使生产过程更加顺畅,更加高效低碳。有些比较先进的企业的生产过程已经很“智能”,开始采用完全不同于传统模式的可视化的生产方式,对产品的生产过程实施定量管理。每一件产品都有唯一的识别特征,通过网络,纵向无缝连接,与生产链的各个环节相互衔接进行数据交换,横向可以初步实现对于一些衍生的价值进行有效管理,使整个生产过程成为一个高度智能化的体系。
这样的模式到底是不是4.0的模型,谁也不敢肯定,只能说是一种很有价值的试验。嵌入式的工业系统肯定是未来发展的方向,但最后能够达到什么样的程度则只能边试验边改进。工业革命无法预知,必须依赖科技的进步。在有蒸汽机之前,谁都无法预测到会在将来某个时候能发明蒸汽机,电也是一样,在发明电之前,无法预知。对于现在被热炒的4.0来说也是一样,只能坚持朝前走,肯定在某一个节点会顺其自然发生质变。
现在设想中的4.0是高度智能化的制造过程,能够精确满足所有客户个性化的要求,也就是产品定制化生产,而不是批量生产。从这个意义上讲,似乎是对产品规模化生产的回归。生产线上出来的产品一模一样,没有区别,而智能化生产的其中一个内涵就是满足客户个性化要求,不是按照厂家的设计而是按照客户的要求生产产品。工业生产要达到这样的要求绝非易事,不但生产硬件要高度数字化,而且对于产品与客户之间的流通距离要实施精确化管理,目前的物流及客户管理系统离这样的要求显然差得很远。不说其他,单就是客户管理系统一个环节就有无数难题。比如供应商,对于业务的动态把控提出了相当高的要求。根据当下人们对于4.0的理解,假如真的达到那样的生产状态,那么如今的超市也似乎没有存在的价值了,因为客户需要的商品都是直接从工厂里定制的,淘宝也会倒闭。假如真有4.0,也需要相当长的时间耐心等待,现状离这样的要求差得很远。
从目前工业企业的管理现状看,决策科学化、数字化虽然在不断提升,但离完全智能化决策的水平差得很远。目前的决策完全靠人脑进行判断,而将来的产品决策则完全是智能化决策,依靠的是大数据和云计算。4.0时代的工人的全部任务是处理各种信息,具体的生产过程不是由人来指挥和操作,而是机器指挥机器的过程。看看现在的生产过程,离这样的要求差得很远。
……

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