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Jingdong book

中国A股市场异常波动报告

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Books Economy China Economy

Jingdong book

中国A股市场异常波动报告

Name: 中国A股市场异常波动报告
Brand: Jingdong book
SKU: 3110228661
Price: 43.01 USD
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2015年6—8月间，中国股市经历了“异常波动”，持续性的“暴涨”“暴跌”对市场信心的影响，乃至对实体经济的冲击都不可小视。杠杆的过度无序应用、金融产品监管不完善、市场机制多空不协调、交易机制设计缺陷、投资者结构散户化问题、新股发行制度与上市公司行为规范的漏洞，以及媒体扮演的牛市思维助推器，这些都是造成本次A股市场异常波动的原因，也暴露出我国在资本市场制度建设方面改进完善的迫切需求。
痛定思痛，我们更需要科学客观地总结本次股市异常波动带给我们的深刻“教训”，完善制度设计，提升市场信心，建立起长期健康稳定发展的中国资本市场。

Content Description

2015年6—8月中国股市经历了“异常波动”，经过政府的有效应对，股市的风险已基本释放，逐步进入恢复调整期。本报告对本轮异常波动从杠杆、市场机制多空不协调、交易机制方面的设计缺陷、投资者结构、新股发行制度等方面进行了分析，并提出了建立市场健康发展的长效机制，提升市场信心的政策建议。

Author Description

吴晓灵，中国人民银行原副行长、国家外管局原局长。经济学硕士学位，研究员。全国人大财经委副主任委员。

Catalogue

主报告
完善制度设计提升市场信心建设长期健康稳定发展的资本市场
报告摘要
一、本次股市异常波动集中表现为“暴涨”和“急跌
二、本次股市“暴涨十急跌”深层次原因分析
三、政策建议

子报告
子报告1：A股配资发展现状、影响及政策建议
报告摘要
一、场内、场外配资是导致本轮股市异常波动的原因之一
二、股市配资渠道及作用机制
三、股市配资存在的问题及影响
四、规范配资业务的政策建议
子报告2：股市资金杠杆的规模、配资软件系统及压力测试
报告摘要
一、股市资金杠杆规模测算
二、场外配资软件系统的特点和机制
三、压力测试
四、监管建议
子报告3：2015年股市异常波动成因分析与股指期货所起的作用
报告摘要
一、股市异常波动过程分析
二、股指期货在股市异常波动中的作用
三、政策建议
子报告4：A股衍生品的作用及其在本次股市异常波动中的表现特征
报告摘要
一、A股衍生品的市场概况和功能
二、股市异常波动期间境内股指期货市场运行特征
三、股市异常波动期间境内股指期货市场功能发挥情况
四、股市异常波动期间境外A股相关衍生品市场情况
五、平稳发展境内股指期货市场的政策建议
参考文献
附录多国交易所抢推中国股指期货
子报告5：市场策略一致性问题研究
报告摘要
一、机构投资者行为研究
二、影响因素分析
三、政策建议
子报告6：量化投资与高频交易对市场的影响
报告摘要
一、高频交易的特点及市场影响
二、高频交易监管的国际经验
三、量化投资与高频交易对国内市场的影响
四、我国高频交易的监管政策建议
子报告7：关于我国交易机制设计的制度建议
报告摘要
一、总论：交易机制监管框架与研究框架
……
附录
后记

Book Abstract

2015年6月中旬至7月初，中国股票市场出现了“异常波动”。从事后来看，这次股市异常波动对市场信心的影响、乃至对实体经济的冲击都不可小视，同时它也凸显了我国在资本市场制度建设方面亟需改进完善的迫切需求。
痛定思痛，我们不应该忘记这次股市异常波动，更需要科学客观地总结本次股市异常波动带给我们的“教训”。从国际经验来看，也正是各国对股票市场历次剧烈波动的分析与反思，才促使资本市场交易与监管制度的日趋成熟与逐步完善。从这个角度上来说，我们需要以客观的视角、使用科学的分析方法对本次股市异常波动进行总结与反思。也正是基于这种背景，清华大学国家金融研究院在本次股市异常波动之后迅速组织研究力量，完成了本报告。
在本次报告的写作过程中，我们一直把握着如下两个特点：
首先，本报告核心关注于资本市场制度建设层面，而不仅仅是某类投资者的市场交易行为或某类市场参与者在股市异常波动中所起的作用。虽然本次股市异常波动所暴露的问题颇多，但是撰写本报告的目的主要在于通过理解本次股市异常波动发生的深层次原因，从资本市场制度建设层面提出我们的观点，并就此给出相关的政策建议。因此我们的报告从内容上来看，主要包括引发股市前期“暴涨”和之后“暴跌”的市场制度设计缺陷，导致市场参与者一致性预期形成与投资策略趋同化的交易与激励机制因素，政府在市场统一监管、系统性风险监测与应对、舆情监督中应发挥的作用等。另一方面，我们的子报告也尽量针对本次股市异常波动暴露的热点问题进行一定的分析，例如场外配资规模的估计，股指期货在股市异常波动中的作用，市场投资者结构分析，我国股票发行与交易制度的影响等。不可否认，很多市场参与者与监管者的关注点和本报告会有所不同，例如，部分人士可能更关注本次股市异常波动背后的市场情绪与市场走势，不同投资者的行为与产生的后果等，但是这些并不是本报告分析的核心内容。
其次，尽量科学客观地总结本次股市异常波动的经验与教训。“横看成岭侧成峰，远近高低各不同”，当我们从不同的视角看待事物的时候，事物给我们的感受可能不尽相同——看山如此，看本次股市异常波动也会如此。股市异常波动的背后涉及了较多利益相关者，当回头反思这段历程的时候，利益相关者的观点往往受自身利益的影响。这种情况下，我们需要客观地总结经验教训。清华大学国家金融研究院作为一个学术机构，与市场无实际利益关联，我们力争有独立客观的表述。
当然，本次股市异常波动的所有成因和对未来我国资本市场可能产生的深层次影响远非本报告所能全部涵盖，所有的经验教训也很难在如此短时间之内全部总结。基于我们报告的研究视角与核心关注点，本报告可以看作是抛砖引玉。对于尚处于发展建设阶段的中国资本市场而言，我们可能需要更多的、持有不同立场、具有不同背景的市场参与者对本次股市异常波动进行更充分的讨论与分析，也需要在未来几年、十几年、乃至更长的时间里不断地对本次股市异常波动进行总结与检验。
本报告发布之后，引起了社会各界的广泛讨论，我们也听到了各种声音。如此大的反响，是我们未曾预料的，却是我们欣然看到的。在这里，我们无法也无意对各种声音做出一一回应。如果能够通过本报告促进各界人士思考本次股市异常波动，进一步地能为我国资本市场制度建设建言献策，我们的初衷也就达到了。
……

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