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Jingdong book

哈佛大学的博弈论课

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Jingdong book

哈佛大学的博弈论课

Name: 哈佛大学的博弈论课
Brand: Jingdong book
SKU: 3102012271
Price: 25.37 USD
Availability: OutOfStock

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《哈佛大学的博弈论课》根据哈佛大学教授、诺贝尔经济学奖获得者，托马斯·谢林的博弈论课程撰写，尤其适合大学生、研究者、教师等人士阅读。

Content Description

博弈论是一种决策理论，在实际生活的方方面面中都有应用，当两个人、两个企业、两个国家就某一件事做决策而要考虑对方的反应时，就形成博弈。对博弈论的专业定义是“理性决策者之间冲突与合作的数学模型的研究”。
专业的博弈论著作中会有很多数学模型，较难理解，但本书中去掉了这些专业的内容，而是用生活中的例子（比如两个班的体育比赛）和历史上的故事（比如古巴导弹危机之中的美苏斗争）讲述博弈论的精髓。
《哈佛大学的博弈论课》是哈佛大学教授托马斯·谢林的博弈论课程教案的精华，同时结合了作者在新加坡美国学校讲授博弈论的教学经验。2005年谢林因在博弈论领域的贡献获得诺贝尔经济学奖，是该领域的权威人物。

Author Description

罗伯特·道奇（Robert Dodge）在新加坡美国学校高中班教授社会研究，其间他到哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院攻读公共管理硕士学位，正值诺贝尔经济学奖获得者托马斯·谢林在此讲授博弈论，也因此成为谢林的学生，还著有谢林的传记《战略家：托马斯·谢林的生平与时代》。

Catalogue

第1章托马斯·谢林与其独特的战略思维课程

第一部分战略思维与决策方面的谢林方法
第2章战略思维入门
第3章换位思考
第4章博弈论
第5章二阶矩阵

第二部分战略与战术
第6章策略界定与说明
第7章战术
第8章自我控制

第三部分用模型表现决定的作用
第9章互动模型
第10章美元拍卖
第11章抢座游戏和无法避免的数学

第四部分囚徒困境、竞争与合作
第12章囚徒困境
第13章合作
第14章协调

第五部分个人决定和集体结果
第15章集体选择和投票
第16章公共资源与均等的分配
第17章案例分析：战胜职业篮球的公共困境

第六部分将人口混合与分类的决定及随机决定
第18章关键多数理论（critical mass）和引爆点
第19章个人决策和集体结果
第20章决策的随机性

第七部分案例研究和回顾
第21章案例研究：古巴导弹危机

Book Abstract

第二章战略思维入门

这是一本有关决策的书。书中涉及了解各种选择的结果，并怀着这种先见之明在多种选项之间做出理性决策。本书所概述课程的名称是描述性的：“冲突，合作与战略”，包含一系列互动。三者都离不开选择。以战略眼光审时度势并做出明智选择显然十分重要，但常常并非易事。本书将通过讲解并借助案例和问题介绍提升做出明智选择能力的方法与技巧。这是一项理论研究，探究有关下述方面的图式结构分析：冲突与合作；协商、谈判与集体决策；激励与信息；规则与执行；保密与欺骗；威胁与承诺；相互影响、相互依赖的行为。

通常，一些介绍性内容之后会紧跟一个抽象性问题。在这一问题得到研究或解决、并且抽象概念获得探讨之后，下一步就是找出与此抽象概念结构一致的活动与实际问题。我们的目的是发现并开始识别重复出现且普遍存在的情况、行为和问题。敲诈勒索的技巧在犯罪领域、家庭管理、核大国之间和执法领域有所不同，但有不少共同之处。威胁孩子说作业做不完就没有电视看与威胁一国说如果它出口核技术就会面临贸易抵制利用了同样的分析。与有类似偏好、自有理由的其他人的决定相结合时，个人对于居住在种族隔离社区还是种族融合的社区所作的决定可能得到事与愿违的效果。一场简单的谢林博弈与分析有助于我们了解这一看似与直觉不符的结果。我们力求实际了解这些问题。

战略分析对此阐述十分关键。当我们试图影响或适应其他人已经采取或预计将会采取的行为时，就需要用到战略。战略分析关乎形势，而非个性。我们可以撇开个人及其个性而对形势展开分析，因此分析中并不涉及有关善恶的内容。形势分析是中立且公正的，保持分析重点突出、不偏不倚对于成功十分关键。

虽然有关战略分析的研究常常非常专业，并且涉及高等数学，但谢林的方法以推理与清晰的逻辑为基础。解释常通过类比或对现象和历史事件的审视展开。凯撒在高卢的经历、热核对决、抚养小孩的经历都同样能为谢林的战略洞见提供材料。某些数学技巧和工具也包括其中，某些阐释涉及代数，但数字运算常常仅需要简单的算术。本课程设计者的工作体现在身价过亿的投资者沃尔特·巴菲特（WalterBuffett，请编辑注意，原文是WalterBuffett，但经查证说这句话的应该是WarrenBuffett沃伦·巴菲特）的一句话中：在2008年的经济衰退后，巴菲特在对股东所作的年度报告中评论道：“我们的建议是：谨慎对待数字的影响。”

……

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