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Jingdong book

新供给经济学:理论创新与建言

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新供给经济学:理论创新与建言

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《新供给经济学:理论创新与建言》集是新供给经济学理论探索中主要在经济学基础理论层面形成的重要成果,也收录了以理论创新支撑国情分析的建设性意见。
Content Description

在世界金融危机带来的全球经济学者对经济学理论的反思之中,新供给经济学研究群体认为,不能沿用仅仅侧重“需求侧”讨论宏观经济调控管理的传统框架,而应对于“供给侧”更为侧重,实施经济学“理论密切联系实际”的创新。《 新供给经济学:理论创新与建言》是一年多以来新供给经济学理论探索中主要在经济学基础理论层面形成的重要成果,同时也收入了以理论创新支撑国情分析和建设性意见建议的代表性成果。我们期待这样的学术理论研究能够避免走“空谈误国”的迷途,而是实实在在地做到胸怀世界、脚踏实地,在“不唯上、不唯书、只唯实”的道路上为中国经济发展、社会进步服务。
Author Description

贾康,现任全国政协委员、政协经济委员会委员,中国财政学会副会长,中国税务学会、中国城市金融学会和中国改革研究会常务理事,北京市、上海市人民政府特聘专家,福建省、安徽省、甘肃省人民政府顾问,西藏自治区和广西壮族自治区人民政府咨询委员,北京大学、中国人民大学、国家行政学院、南开大学、武汉大学、厦门大学、安徽大学、天津财经大学、江西财经大学、西南财经大学、西南交通大学、广东商学院、首都经贸大学等高校特聘教授。1995年享受政府特殊津贴。1997年被评为国家百千万人才工程高层次学术带头人。1988年曾入选亨氏基金项目,赴美国匹兹堡大学做访问学者一年。多次参加国家经济政策制订的研究工作和主持或参加国内外多项课题,撰写和出版多部专著和数百篇论文。多次受中央领导同志之邀座谈经济工作(被媒体称之为“中南海问策”)。担任2010年1月8日中央政治局第十八次集体学习“财税体制改革”专题的讲解人之一。孙冶方经济学奖和黄达—蒙代尔经济学奖、中国软科学大奖获得者。国家“十一五”“十二五”和“十三五”规划专家委员会委员。曾长期担任财政部财政科学研究所所长。2013年,主编《新供给:经济学理论的中国创新》,发起成立“华夏新供给经济学研究院”和“新供给经济学50人论坛”(任院长、秘书长),并积极推动“PPP研究院”(任院长)等交流活动,致力于建设有中国特色的智库和跨界、跨部门学术交流平台。
Catalogue

中国需要构建和发展以改革为核心的新供给经济学
“三驾马车”认知框架需对接供给侧的结构性动力机制构建
理性的“供给管理”与“动物精神”的分析解读:概念与现实
“理眭预期失灵”:立论、逻辑梳理及其“供给管理”矫正路径
探析“供给侧”经济学派所经历的两轮“否定之否定”
供给侧考察:新供给经济学理论“五维一体化”框架与包容性边界探讨
经济学的“新框架”与“新供给”:创新中的重要联通和“集大成”
境界追求
胡焕庸线:从我国基本国情看“半壁压强型”环境压力与针对性能源、环境
战略策略
PPP:制度供给的伟大创新
“理性预期失灵”原理的应用:对我国科技金融服务体系的思考
Book Abstract

一、西方经济学和传统供给学派的核心观点及运用成效
(一)经济学和传统供给学派的核心观点与点评
简言之,西方古典经济学和新古典经济学认为,在既定技术条件和价格具有充分弹性的情形下,长期总供给曲线是垂直的,政府不要试图干预经济,因为那除了会带来通货膨胀之外,于经济产出毫无益处;凯恩斯主义经济学则认为长期总供给曲线是倾斜的,价格调整是黏性的,即客观存在经济运行状态“可塑性”的政策空间,当经济衰退时政府应该干预经济。古典经济学、新古典经济学和凯恩斯主义经济学最根本的共同失误是“假设”了供给环境,强调需求而忽视供给,没有足够地意识到生产力革命带来的人类社会总供给方面的根本性变化。事实上,人类从茹毛饮血时代发展到今天,随着科技革命产生巨大的生产力飞跃,创造了上一时代难以想象的供给能力,然而这些原来让人难以想象的供给,并没有充分满足人类的需求,原因在于人类作为一个适应环境进化的物种来说,其需求是无限的。正因为如此,现实地推动人类社会不断发展的过程,虽然离不开消费需求的动力源,但更为主要的支撑因素从长期考察却不是需求,而是有效供给对于需求的回应与引导。在更综合、更本质的层面上讲,经济发展的停滞其实不是需求不足,而是供给(包括生产要素供给和制度供给)不足引起的。在其中一般而言,要素供给(如生产资料、劳动力、技术供给等)是经济层面的,与千千万万的微观主体相关联;而制度是政治社会文化层面的,直接与社会管理的主体相关联。马克思曾指出:“一个新的历史时期将从这种社会生产组织开始,在这个新的历史时期中,人们自身以及他们活动的一切方面,包括自然科学在内,都将突飞猛进,使以往的一切都相形见绌。”④人类的长期发展过程正是因为不确定性的科技创新产生一次次科技革命,带来一次又一次生产力的提升,也进而推动制度安排的一轮又一轮改革和优化,使总供给能力一次次大幅度提升,促进并保持了经济的长期发展和趋于繁荣。人类的供给能力现实地决定着人类的发展水平,也正是因为这种原因,我们可划分人类社会的不同发展时代:狩猎时代、农业时代、工业时代、信息技术时代,以后随着生物技术的不断飞跃,我们可能会迎来生物技术时代。与之相呼应,人类社会经济形态与制度框架上经历了自然经济、半自然经济、自由市场经济、垄断市场经济和“混合经济”的各种形态,包括我国这个世界上最大发展中经济体正在开拓与建设的“中国特色的社会主义市场经济”。
二战后传统凯恩斯主义曾占据经济学的统治地位,西方国家普遍依据这一理论框架制定政策,对经济进行需求管理,并取得了显著效果。但是在追求经济增长等导向下,凯恩斯主义在实施中一味侧重扩大需求,却终于导致了20世纪70年代西方国家出现失业与物价持续上涨并存的“滞胀”局面。较为典型的情况是美国经济持续出现通胀和失业率同步逐年递增,1980年,即里根上台前,美国通胀率达到13.5%,GDP实际增速则为一0.3%。一些经济学者在这种背景下纷纷向凯恩斯主义提出挑战,研究替代的理论和政策。供给学派就是在这样的背景下兴起,并在里根总统任期内得以付诸实践。
供给学派强调的所谓“供给管理”,与经济学理论框架中的“需求管理”合乎逻辑地形成一对概念,后者强调的是从需求角度实施扩张或收缩的宏观调控,已为一般人们所熟知,而前者则不然。在凯恩斯主义的“需求管理”概念大行其道几十年之后,在20世纪80年代,“里根经济学”时期有过一段“供给学派”引人注目的实践经历,其所依托的是并不太成体系的供给经济学(supply—sideEconomics),也并非强调政府在有效供给形成和结构优化方面的能动作用,而是强调税收中性和减税等“减少干预”、使经济自身增加供给的原则。
供给学派针对传统凯恩斯主义需求管理,复活了古典的萨伊定律,即“生产自创需求”——谁也不为生产而生产,目的是消费。生产、分配、交换只是手段。正如李嘉图所言,“任何人从事生产都是为了消费或销售;销售则是为了购买对他直接有用或是有益于未来生产的某种其他商品。所以一个人从事生产时,他要不是成为自己商品的消费者,就必然会成为他人商品的购买者和消费者”④。因此,从这一角度审视经济运行机制,问题并不在于需求方面,而是在于政策错误等导致供给出现了问题。
……

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