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Jingdong book

金融开放的风险及其经济增长效应

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《金融开放的风险及其经济增长效应》在已有的研究成果基础上以金融开放带来的风险为主线,对与金融开放风险密切相关的金融开放水平测度和协调性、金融开放外源性风险、金融开放与金融危机、金融开放的增长效应、金融开放与金融监管等有关问题展开了研究。
Author Description

张小波,男,1980年,四川宜宾人。2011年12月毕业于重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,获管理学博士学位。现任教于西南政法大学经济学院,讲师。研究领域涉及国际金融、金融经济、金融监管等。
Catalogue

1 绪论
1.1 研究背景与意义
1.2 金融开放的内涵和理论基础
1.2.1 金融开放的内涵
1.2.2 金融开放与资本账户开放
1.2.3 金融开放与金融发展、金融结构
1.2.4 金融开放与金融深化、金融自由化
1.2.5 金融开放与国际资本流动理论
1.2.6 金融开放与金融服务贸易自由化
1.3 研究内容与研究方法
1.3.1 研究的逻辑思路
1.3.2 研究内容
1.3.3 研究方法

2 国内外研究现状
2.1 金融开放水平测度
2.1.1 官方承诺的金融开放水平的测度
2.1.2 现实金融开放水平的测度
2.1.3 金融开放水平测度方法的评述
2.2 金融开放与经济增长
2.2.1 金融开放与经济增长的理论
2.2.2 金融开放与经济增长的实证
2.2.3 金融开放促进增长的条件
2.2.4 金融开放与经济增长研究的评述
2.3 金融开放风险与危机
2.3.1 金融开放风险与预警
2.3.2 金融开放与国际收支风险
2.3.3 金融开放与危机
2.4 金融开放与金融监管
2.4.1 金融监管与金融监管体制定义
2.4.2 金融监管模式
2.4.3 金融开放与金融监管
2.4.4 金融开放与金融监管的文献评述
2.5 本章小结

3 中国金融开放的进程与现状
3.1 中国金融业开放的进程和现状
3.1.1 中国金融业开放的第一阶段(1979~1993年)
3.1.2 中国金融业开放的第二阶段(1994~2001年)
3.1.3 中国金融业开放的第三阶段(2002~2006年)
3.1.4 中国金融业开放的第四阶段(2007年至今)
3.1.5 中国金融业开放的现状
3.2 中国资本与金融账户开放的进程和现状
3.2.1 中国资本与金融账户开放的第一阶段(1979~1993年)
3.2.2 中国资本与金融账户开放的第二阶段(1994~2001年)
3.2.3 中国资本与金融账户开放的第三阶段(2002年至今)
3.2.4 中国资本与金融账户开放现状
3.3 本章小结

4 金融开放水平的测度及协调性分析
4.1 研究背景
4.2 金融开放水平的测度方法
4.2.1 金融开放界定与结构体系的构建
4.2.2 金融开放水平测算公式
4.3 金融开放的协调性测度与判别方法的建立
4.3.1 金融开放协调性的定义
4.3.2 金融开放的协调性测度及评价方法
4.3.3 金融开放协调性区间的划分
4.4 实证分析
4.4.1 样本的选取及指标数据来源说明
4.4.2 实证结果及其分析
4.5 本章小结

5 金融开放外源性风险的评估、影响及预警
5.1 研究背景
5.2 金融开放外源性风险评价指标体系及风险评估方法的建立
5.2.1 金融开放的外源性风险体系结构
5.2.2 金融开放的外源性风险指标体系
5.2.3 风险评估方法
5.2.4 金融开放外源性风险对经济稳定与安全影响分析方法
5.2.5 金融开放外源性风险的预警模型
5.3 中国金融开放外源性风险的评估与预警
5.3.1 样本选取及数据来源说明
5.3.2 中国金融开放外源性风险的评估
5.3.3 中国金融开放外源性风险对经济金融的稳定与安全影响分析
5.3.4 中国金融开放外源性风险预测
5.4 本章小结

6 金融开放的潜在国际收支风险研究——基于长期外国直接投资的行为变迁视角
6.1 研究背景
6.2 长期外国直接投资的行为变迁对国际收支影响分析构架
6.3 FDI的行为变迁对中国国际收支影响的实证分析
6.3.1 参数测算及其数据来源
6.3.2 实证分析结果
6.4 本章小结


7 新兴市场国家的金融开放与危机——基于国内发展战略选择的视角
7.1 研究背景
7.2 基本模型
7.2.1 基本假设
7.2.2 金融未开放条件时经济体行为
7.2.3 金融开放条件下经济主体行为
7.3 数值模拟及实证分析
7.3.1 数值模拟分析
7.3.2 实证分析
7.4 本章小结

8 金融开放对经济增长的效应分解及评价——基于中国1979~2010年的实证分析
8.1 研究背景
8.2 金融开放对经济增长的效应分解框架
8.3 中国金融开放对经济增长效应的实证分析
8.3.1 变量设计和数据来源说明
8.3.2 检验结果及其阐述
8.4 本章小结

9 基于金融开放的发展中国家宏观审慎监管制度——框架及其选择
9.1 研究背景
9.2 金融开放对金融监管提出的挑战
9.3 宏观审慎监管制度框架
9.3.1 宏观审慎监管的目标
9.3.2 宏观审慎监管的主体
9.3.3 宏观审慎监管的客体
9.3.4 宏观审慎监管的框架
9.4 发展国家建立宏观审慎监管的必要性
9.5 中国金融监管体制的选择与建议
9.5.1 建立适合中国国情的宏观审慎监管的主体
9.5.2 建立适合中国金融系统性风险独特性的系统风险监测分析系统
9.5.3 选择和设计适合中国系统重要性机构独特性的宏观审慎监管的政策工具
9.5.4 建立显性存款保险制度
9.5.5 强调宏观审慎政策与宏观经济政策的配合
9.5.6 保持宏观审慎政策与微观审慎政策的有机融合
9.5.7 建立与世界其他国家宏观审慎监管的协调机制
9.6 本章小结

10 结论与展望
10.1 主要结论
10.2 政策建议
10.3 展望

参考文献
附录
后记
Book Abstract

9.4发展国家建立宏观审慎监管的必要性
(1)建立宏观审慎监管是金融开放必然要求
金融全球化是未来的发展的必然趋势,任何一国或地区都将不可避免地卷入金融不断开放浪潮中,正如前文所述金融开放带来系统性风险等问题必然会给开放国的监管带来困难,导致自身金融体系不稳定的同时也容易遭受国际金融风险的传染与冲击造成金融经济体系的不安全。而当前以微观审慎监管的机制体制是不具备对系统性风险等问题形成有效监管进而化解的能力。2008年的金融危机的爆发就是最好例证,而发达经济体的金融监管体制改革的实践也在不断在证明建立宏观审慎监管的重要意义。因此,发展中国家在应对金融开放、金融市场化、金融全球化的挑战中,建立宏观审慎监管是必然的要求。
(2)建立宏观审慎监管是发展国家自身金融经济发展的需要
相对于发展的国家和地区,很多发展中国家或地区在短期内,不具备由于系统性风险引发金融困难甚至危机的条件,但很多发展中国家的金融发展模式都是政府主导型,政府机构身兼金融资产持有者、经济金融政策制定者和金融市场管理者等多重角色于一身,这种金融体系的设置本身已经成为产生系统性风险隐患的之一。与此同时,相比发达国家和地区的宏观调控政策与金融监管政策的协调性,发展中国家或地区的国内宏观调控政策和金融监管政策的不稳定、不连贯以及二者的不协调与统一的现象更为严重,这都会给金融体系带来冲击,金融体系的不稳定进而又反馈到实体经济中导致经济发展波动甚至下滑。因此建立宏微观审慎监管相互融合的金融监管模式,对自身金融经济持续平稳健康的发展有着重大意义。
(3)建立宏观审慎监管是加强国际金融监管合作共同全球金融秩序的需要
金融经济的全球化,导致系统性风险在各国的传导蔓延,给各个金融经济发展带来了巨大的冲击。建立宏观审慎的监管有利于加强国际金融监管合作,也是今后金融全球化必然趋势,共同维持良好金融秩序、减少经济波动和下滑有着巨大作用。
……

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