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Jingdong book

北京市印花税收入能力估算

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北京市印花税收入能力估算

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《北京市印花税收入能力估算》内容有如下特点:
·系统阐述了各种税收收入能力估算方法的产生背景、基本原理、适用条件、数据需求和输出结果,建立了较为全面的税收收入能力估算方法体系。
·通过应用多种公开统计数据采用直接法、应用内部申报数据采用机器学习方法,分别测算了北京市印花税主要税目的流失额、流失率,在此基础上,估算出北京市印花税税收收入能力。
·对直接法和机器学习方法估算结果进行互相验证并结合北京市印花税征管实际,提出了进一步改善数据质量、强化税收征管等政策建议。
·开创性地把机器学习方法应用于印花税收入能力估算,这一方法的普适性面对微观数据、复杂数据、大数据分析具有广阔的应用前景。
·研究过程逻辑严密、方法适当、数据翔实,研究结论对印花税风险管理具有较强参考价值。
Catalogue

1 税收收入能力估算相关理论研究
1.1 税收收入能力相关概念
1.1.1 税收收入能力
1.1.2 纳税能力
1.1.3 征税能力
1.1.4 三者关系及本书对税收收入能力概念的界定
1.2 税收收入能力衡量指标
1.2.1 税收努力
1.2.2 征收率、征收力度
1.2.3 纳税人遵从度
1.2.4 税收流失率
1.2.5 几个指标之间关系
1.2.6 本书采用的衡量指标
1.3 税收收入能力估算的目的和目标
1.3.1 目的
1.3.2 目标
1.4 税收收入能力估算的原则
1.4.1 科学的原则
1.4.2 客观的原则
1.4.3 全面性和重要性相结合的原则
1.4.4 从实际出发的原则
1.4.5 循序渐进的原则

2 税收收入能力估算的国内外经验借鉴
2.1 估算的总体思路
2.2 估算的常用方法
2.2.1 国外主要估算方法
2.2.2 国内主要估算方法
2.3 估算的主要成果
2.3.1 增值税税收收入能力估算
2.3.2 营业税税收收入能力估算
2.3.3 企业所得税税收收入能力估算
2.3.4 个人所得税税收收入能力估算
2.3.5 房产税税收收入能力估算
2.3.6 印花税税收收入能力估算
2.4 启示
2.4.1 思路的启示
2.4.2 方法的启示
2.4.3 数据的启示
2.4.4 开展估算工作的启示

3 税收收入能力估算主要方法
3.1 分税种法
3.1.1 企业所得税税收收入能力的估算:因素法
3.1.2 个人所得税税收收入能力的估算方法
3.2 投入产出法
……
4 印花税基本情况及估算模型选择
5 印花税收人能力估测:直接法
6 印花税收入能力预测:机器学习模型
7 若干建议
附录
后记
Book Abstract

《北京市印花税收入能力估算》:
在估算营业税税收收入能力时,以“代用税基”为标准税基,并调整法定税率,将调整的法定税率作为标准税率并适用于标准税基上进行营业税税收收入能力的测算。在核定营业税标准税基时,具体方法是对于可直接获取营业收入或销售额的税目,直接以该税目的营业收入或销售额作为标准税基,对无法取得直接数据,假定总产出即等于营业收入,以该税目的增加值作为“代用”税基,利用总产出与增加值之间的关系,计算该税目的营业收入;对于一些税目,直接用人库税收收入作为该税目的收入能力,主要是考虑对营业税税收收入能力不产生较大影响。梁季博士对交通运输、仓储和邮电业,金融保险业、餐饮业、社会服务业采取投入产出法核算营业收入,对建筑业和房地产业直接使用统计年鉴的收入数据进行测算。
辛浩(2009)采用代表性税制法对营业税税收收入能力进行了估算,其认为,营业税的9个税目共同形成营业税税收体系,在采用代表性税制法进行税收收入能力测算时,应根据营业税不同税目进行分税种分税目分别测算税收收入能力,分别确定其标准税率与标准税基。其对营业税的9个税目的标准税率均直接采用营业税各税目的法定税率,根据不同税目的征收范围选择营业税重点税税目进行测算。在测算时,根据数据来源和营业税税目所包含的范围对数据进行区分或合并处理。在标准化税基时,其主要采用从《中国统计年鉴》《中国税务年鉴》,同时采用《中国金融年鉴》《中国房地产年鉴》《中国交通年鉴》的数据,并对《中国统计年鉴》中不合理的数据进行了修正。2.3.3企业所得税税收收入能力估算
一般认为,企业所得税税收收入能力来源于经济发展和企业经营能力。企业所得税税收收入的增长在宏观上表现为经济发展和企业经济效益的提升,在微观上表现为企业的应纳税额的增加。在进行企业所得税税收能力分析时,如果能够对全国企业的经营情况进行调查分析,取得较为翔实的全国企业应税收入的明细情况,就能够更准确地进行企业所得税收入能力的测算。事实上,国家税务总局和财政部分别对全国重点企业的所得税税源进行调查或进行全国经济普查,这些都相应取得了相当一部分企业的经营数据。国内对企业所得税税收能力研究基本上还处于起步阶段。梁季(2007)提出对企业所得税税收收入能力进行估算时应该采用要素法,就是说在测算企业所得税税收收入能力时,选用与税收收入能力的影响因素间关系来估算税收收入能力,是税收因素法在具体税种上的应用。其认为影响企业所得税税收收入能力的因素有直接因素和间接因素。应纳税所得额、税率和税收收入因素为直接因素,而利润为间接因素。在无法获取直接因素的情况下,采用直接因素分解为间接因素而对税收收入能力进行估算。
……
Introduction

为全面贯彻落实党中央、国务院关于“四个全面”的总体部署,以及国家税务总局关于实现税收现代化的战略部署,提高税收治理能力,实现治理体系现代化,北京市地方税务局作为首都税收行政主管部门,深入思考、直面问题,与中国人民大学财政金融学院金融与财税电子化研究所组成联合课题组,以印花税为突破口,开展了“北京市印花税收入能力估算”课题研究,力图从宏观层面把握印花税税源,识别税收流失风险。
此课题是实践性、实务性较强的研究,研究成果用于指导具体工作,要经得起税收管理实践的检验,内在的要求较高。印花税兼有凭证税和行为税性质,征收范围广泛,税源税基分散,再加上北京具有明显的总部经济特征,课题研究难度较大。不论是宏观统计数据,还是微观数据,与印花税各税目税基的对应关系薄弱,数据制约较大。此外,国内外关于印花税收入能力估算的研究成果较少,可借鉴的模型方法不多。
面对各种困难,联合课题组坚持科学、负责的精神,攻坚克难,圆满完成研究任务,形成“北京市印花税收入能力估算”研究报告。研究报告不仅得到了相关领域专家的高度评价,而且在工作实践中取得了明显效果。为此,我们将研究报告辑录成书,以利于其成果的推广使用。本书内容有如下特点:
·系统阐述了各种税收收入能力估算方法的产生背景、基本原理、适用条件、数据需求和输出结果,建立了较为全面的税收收入能力估算方法体系。
·通过应用多种公开统计数据采用直接法、应用内部申报数据采用机器学习方法,分别测算了北京市印花税主要税目的流失额、流失率,在此基础上,估算出北京市印花税税收收入能力。
·对直接法和机器学习方法估算结果进行互相验证并结合北京市印花税征管实际,提出了进一步改善数据质量、强化税收征管等政策建议。
·开创性地把机器学习方法应用于印花税收入能力估算,这一方法的普适性面对微观数据、复杂数据、大数据分析具有广阔的应用前景。
·研究过程逻辑严密、方法适当、数据翔实,研究结论对印花税风险管理具有较强参考价值。
由于编者知识结构、实践经验所限,数据采集、方法使用和印花税征管的复杂性等多方面因素制约,本书内容不当之处,敬请读者指正。

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