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Jingdong book

中国重要农产品价格波动与调控新机制

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中国重要农产品价格波动与调控新机制

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《中国重要农产品价格波动与调控新机制》从重要农产品与主要农产品的概念差异出发,界定了重要农产品及价格调控机制的基本内涵,分析了中国重要农产品价格调控面临的新形势,回顾并系统评价了储备吞吐、进出口等现行价格调控政策效果,针对粮、棉、油、糖、生猪和部分蔬菜,围绕价格调控机制关键要素,进行了价格调控机制框架的系统设计。
《中国重要农产品价格波动与调控新机制》在以下几方面拓宽了现有研究:一是系统提出了重要农产品价格调控的综合性思路,按对外依存度将重要农产品分为自给型和外向型两类,分别对粮食、生猪、棉、油、糖等重要农产品价格调控进行了前瞻性研究,同时对蔬菜价格调控问题进行了探索性研究。二是首次对重要农产品、重要农产品价格调控机制的内涵进行了理论界定,通过与主要农产品概念的比较分析,对概念性问题进行了廓清。三是对重要农产品价格变化的新形势提出了一些新判断。如,部分重要农产品需求价格弹性下降;“区域性生产”、“全国性消费”放大价格波动风险等。四是基于全国生产者、消费者和经营者约600份调查问卷,定量评价了储备吞吐、进出口调控等重要农产品价格调控政策效果。五是设计了重要农产品价格调控机制框架,明确了重要农产品价格调控的主体结构、手段体系和合理波动区间,并提出了粮棉油糖定量收储与差价直补相结合、滑准税向食糖延伸、生猪调控先启动、后备案等新的政策建议。六是采用计量分析和定性分析方法剖析了重要农产品价格波动的原因、调控政策效果,改进了现有文献主要采用定性方法的不足。
Catalogue

第一章 总论
第二章 中国重要农产品价格调控面临的新形势及
第三章 近年来中国重要农产品价格波动特征及原因
第四章 中国粮食、 生猪价格波动及调控机制研究
第五章 中国棉花、 油料、 食糖价格波动及调控机制研究
第六章 中国重要蔬菜价格波动及调控机制研究
第七章 重要农产品价格调控的国际经验及启示
第八章 重要农产品价格调控机制研究综述
第九章 中国重要农产品价格调控的微观主体意愿分析
附录1: 四川、江西、北京重要农产品价格调控调研
附录2: 调查问卷
Book Abstract

《中国重要农产品价格波动与调控新机制》:
一方面,居民收入迅速提高,消费结构的升级使得以基本生存需求为目标的粮食等农产品需求减少,高端农产品需求开始井喷,新一轮农产品价格波动特征将更多表现为高端农产品价格的波动,并进一步带动整体农产品的价格波动。另一方面,在城镇化推动下,农村人口减少,相应地其农产品消费从“自给型”转变为“商品型”,整体农产品需求增长较快,进一步拉低了重要农产品需求价格弹性,由此强化了农产品的价格波动。
(二)农业生产要素成本刚性上涨,重要农产品价格从“低位”调控走向“高位”调控
中国已经进入工业化中期向后期过渡的阶段,成本上升和产量波动使得农产品开始进入价格上涨阶段,在短期内加剧了农产品的价格波动。一方面,工业化进程在带动劳动力、土地等要素成本的上升,再加上能源、原材料的上升,对农产品成本形成全面的推力。另一方面,由于农业对工业品的使用达到饱和,劳动效率提升缓慢;同时,由于比较效益的问题,部分农业生产要素向工业转移,尽管这其中有机械代替人工因素,但农民对农业的依赖明显降低。这些都内在的强化了农产品产量的波动,进而造成农产品价格的频繁波动。生产要素成本上升,使得农业生产机会成本加大,直接导致农业生产要素大进大出,由此引发造成产量大增大减,使得农产品价格呈现出较为频繁的波动性。同时,在农产品要素价格高企引致农产品价格高位运行的条件下,重要农产品价格调控从“低位”调控走向“高位”调控,社会的关注度和敏感度不断增强,调控的成本不断上升,难度不断增加。
……

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