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Jingdong book

中国现实经济热点问题系列：虚拟经济与实体经济协调发展研究

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Jingdong book

中国现实经济热点问题系列：虚拟经济与实体经济协调发展研究

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《中国现实经济热点问题系列：虚拟经济与实体经济协调发展研究》从虚拟经济与实体经济关系的理论基础分析入手，详细探讨了我国虚拟经济发展对实体经济的影响，分析了我国虚拟经济与实体经济的协调发展，研究了虚拟经济扩张过程中的泡沫风险及预警系统构架，为促进我国虚拟经济与实体经济协调发展提出了相应的对策建议。
Author Description

周莹莹，1983年6月生，江苏徐州人，博士、博士后，现供职于中国矿业大学管理学院金融学系。主要研究方向：虚拟经济与实体经济、资产评估。近年来在国内外学术期刊及重要的国际会议上公开发表学术论文20余篇，其中被El核心数据库和CSSCI等检索多篇；主持全国统计科研计划项目、中国矿业大学人才引进项目等纵向项目多项，作为主要完成人参与完成教育部人文社会科学项目、国家统计科学重点规划项目.江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重点项目等课题多项。
Catalogue

第一章 绪论
第一节 问题提出及选题意义
第二节 国内外研究述评
第三节 研究内容及研究目标
第四节 研究方法和技术路线

第二章 虚拟经济与实体经济关系的理论基础
第一节 概念界定
第二节 虚拟经济与实体经济研究范畴界定
第三节 虚拟经济的演化及运行特征
第四节 虚拟经济与实体经济间的关系

第三章 我国虚拟经济发展对实体经济的影响分析
第一节 虚拟经济对实体经济的传导机制与作用机理
第二节 我国虚拟经济领域发展概况
第三节 我国虚拟经济发展对实体经济代表层面的影响
第四节 我国虚拟经济发展对实体经济总量的影响
第五节 我国虚拟经济发展对实体经济影响的综合分析

第四章 我国虚拟经济与实体经济协调发展分析
第一节 虚拟经济与实体经济协调发展机制分析
第二节 我国虚拟经济与实体经济协调状态经验性分析
第三节 基于综合变化协调度方法的我国虚拟经济与实体经济协调度测算
第四节 基于耦合协调度模型的我国虚拟经济与实体经济协调度测算
第五节 我国虚拟经济与实体经济间的溢出效应分析
第六节 我国虚拟经济与实体经济协调发展趋势预测

第五章 虚拟经济扩张过程中泡沫风险分析
第一节 虚拟经济膨胀演化至泡沫经济机理分析
第二节 我国股票市场泡沫分析
第三节 我国房地产市场泡沫分析
第四节 虚拟经济过度背离实体经济预警构架

第六章 我国虚拟经济与实体经济协调发展的对策与建议
第一节 推动虚拟经济的适度发展以促进两系统间的协调发展
第二节 加强金融市场监管及有效发挥其对实体经济推动作用
第三节 我国房地产市场发展与风险防范对策建议
第四节 虚拟经济与实体经济协调监管与预警实施

第七章 本书主要研究结论及展望
第一节 本书所做的主要工作及研究结论
第二节 本书的主要创新及研究展望
参考文献
后记
Book Abstract

（2）如果实体经济系统内部发展失衡，必然会出现结构性供需失衡。在消费者选择的作用下，供不应求时，产品价格将上升，投资收益率将提高；供大于求时，产品价格将下降，投资收益率将降低。此外，在利益机制的作用下，生产者将增加供不应求产品的投资，以进一步扩大供给量；同时，减少对供过于求产品的投资支出，以缩小该种类产品的供应量，直至供求恢复均衡为止。
（3）如果虚拟经济系统内部发展失衡，将导致虚拟经济产品的供求失衡，各类资产风险与收益的均衡状态将被打破，影响投资者改变其投资组合，例如，增加对风险低、收益高的虚拟经济产品的投资，并减少对风险高、收益率低的虚拟经济产品的投资，将导致这两类产品的价格波动发生反向变化。在经济发展规律的作用下，虚拟经济系统发展过程中，将增加（或减少）对价格上升（或价格下降）产品的供给，直至虚拟经济系统中产品的供求达到新的均衡关系为止。
具体来看，虚拟经济与实体经济向协调状态收敛表现在以下方面：
（1）虚拟经济发展滞后于实体经济时。虚拟经济的发展滞后于实体经济发展的需要，将对实体经济发展造成不利影响，如将会降低资产配置效率，导致资源浪费；或导致实体经济的运营效率降低，增加经营成本；或因缺少风险规避手段而导致经营风险增大，实体经济投资收益率降低。然而，虚拟经济系统因供给不足，造成其投资收益率提高。在没有准入限制的情况下，投资者一般将增加对虚拟经济领域的投资，而相对减少对实体经济领域的投资。同时，虚拟经济领域资金流入逐渐增多，将逐步导致虚拟资产价格上升，预期收益率提高。实体经济领域，在过量投资的背景下，导致供给能力超过既定收入水平下的社会消费能力，进而导致产品及服务价格下降。在此情况下，消费者为追求未来收益最大化，将减少消费资金的投入比重，增加对虚拟资产的投资，导致资金由实体经济领域流向虚拟经济领域，促使虚拟经济与实体经济向协调状态收敛。这一情况下，虚拟经济与实体经济向协调状态收敛的过程如图4-2所示。
（2）虚拟经济规模迅速膨胀，导致虚拟经济发展过度时。当资本金过量流入虚拟经济领域，出现虚拟经济的过度发展时，实体经济领域将因资金供给不足而出现萎缩，产品及服务价格因其供给能力低于既定收入水平下消费者的消费能力而上升，实体经济领域投资收益率提高，进而吸引部分资产由虚拟经济领域流向实体经济领域。然而，虚拟经济领域由于资产的过量流人，将导致虚拟资产价格的膨胀，产生经济泡沫。
……
Introduction

正确处理虚拟经济与实体经济的关系，促进虚拟经济与实体经济的协调发展，有效发挥虚拟经济健康发展促进实体经济增长的作用，对维持国民经济的稳定持续快速发展具有重要意义。基于这一思想，本书展开了对促进我国虚拟经济与实体经济协调发展的相关研究。本书在界定狭义虚拟经济研究范畴的基础上，主要分析了金融市场发展及房地产市场的虚拟部分与实体经济间的关系。
实体经济是虚拟经济产生与发展的基础，虚拟经济对实体经济具有反作用。通过虚拟经济对实体经济的传导机理及其与实体经济协调发展机理的理论分析认为，虚拟经济与实体经济的协调发展，有利于发挥虚拟经济对实体经济发展“助推器”的作用；当虚拟经济过度膨胀，出现与实体经济的过度背离时，易导致经济泡沫的累积，并有可能诱发泡沫经济，而泡沫的破裂即可导致金融危机、经济危机的发生。同时认为，虚拟经济与实体经济发展间具有内在协调机制及偏离协调状态的恢复机制。
本书在对虚拟经济作用机理及虚拟经济与实体经济协调发展机制进行理论分析的基础上，进一步对我国虚拟经济与实体经济的协调状况进行了实证分析。通过分析我国虚拟经济发展对实体经济的影响，得出结论：以股票市场、债券市场、基金市场组成的资本市场及金融衍生品市场的发展变动对实体经济整体发展的长期作用程度相对较强，虚拟经济系统中股市的发展对社会财富效应的影响逐步增大，贷款规模及股市规模的扩张在短期和长期内对实体经济投资扩张效应的影响显著。
借助综合变化协调度方法及耦合协调度模型，本书测算了我国虚拟经济与实体经济系统间的静态协调度及动态协调度，得出结论：近年来，尤其2007年开始虚拟经济与实体经济间呈现弱度失调状态，2008年弱度失调相对较明显.2009年失调状态减弱，并且整体系统协调发展的动态趋势呈现进一步向协调状态迈进。2007年以来虚拟经济与实体经济系统间出现的弱度失调状况，可能的原因为这一时期我国虚拟经济整体规模迅速膨胀，导致虚拟经济发展的规模及速度与实体经济发展的规模及速度出现不匹配状况。在此基础上，基于耦合关联预测模型预测了2010～2014年我国虚拟经济与实体经济系统间的整体协调状态，认为未来两系统间协调发展趋势向好。

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Jingdong book