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Jingdong book

汉译世界学术名著丛书:风险、不确定性与利润

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我馆历来重视移译世界各国学术名著。从20世纪50年代起,更致力于翻译出版马克思主义诞生以前的古典学术著作,同时适当介绍当代具有定评的各派代表作品。我们确信只有用人类创造的全部知识财富来丰富自己的头脑,才能够建成现代化的社会主义社会。这些书籍所蕴藏的思想财富和学术价值,为学人所熟知,毋需赘述。这些译本过去以单行本印行,难见系统,汇编为丛书,才能相得益彰,蔚为大观,既便于研读查考,又利于文化积累。为此,我们从1981年着手分辑刊行,至2004年已先后分十辑印行名著400余种。现继续编印第十一辑。到,2010年底出版至460种。今后在积累单本著作的基础上仍将陆续以名著版印行。希望海内外读书界、著译界给我们批评、建议,帮助我们把这套丛书出得更好。
Catalogue

初版前言1
再版前言4
1940年重印增记27
1948年版前言29
1957年版前言42
第一篇 导论
第一章 经济学理论中利润与不确定性的地位3
经济学推论的特征及必要性-与物理学的相似之处-强调假设之抽象性的必要性-思想意味着分析以及分析的抽象性-完全竞争假设-不存在利润的情况-完全竞争尤其包括完全知识的条件,以及用不确定性解释的利润一本书的计划

第二章 利润理论,与利润相关的变化与风险21
对经济学文献中利润分析的历史概述-动态理论与风险理论的具体思考-动态理论对变化的结果和与变化相关的不确定性的结果的混淆-风险理论因不能对可量度的概率风险与不可量度的不确定性风险进行区分而陷入的混淆-按已知规律发生的变化,不能产生利润,如果可量度,也不会产生风险,因为风险可以用保险和某些类似的手段排除

第二篇 完全竞争
第三章 选择理论与交换理论51
欲望,以及作为为满足欲望活动之机制的经济秩序-欲望的冲突-资源,以及资源在满足多种欲望中的用途-效用和效用递减-简单的选择;男孩和草莓;鲁滨逊与鲁滨逊经济;简单社会条件下商品的生产和交换-将多种选择结合的问题-愉悦与痛苦的相对性-成本是一种作出牺牲的选择-资源和资源成本的真实意义-曲线和均衡的函数关系的系统阐述

第四章 合作生产与资本化92
不同商品生产中多种资源的使用以及由此导致的组织化问题-收益递减规律与效用递减规律的相似性-归于资源或耗费品的生产价值,由此引出的最大化耗费品收益的结果-对生产力理论的评论-从需求与供给看生产服务的价值-生产诸要素分类为“要素”可能没有道理一时间在生产中的作用以及时间偏好的谬误

第五章 在缺失不确定性条件下的变化和进步136
静态条件的含义及进步的诸种形式-按传统的三分法分类生产要素的问题-生产品的供需变化和分配份额中的变化-趋向于均衡水平的进步问题一所有的进步模式都代表了为未来收益而投资于现在资源的可供选择的方法-在缺失不确定性条件下,回报率在所有这些领域将会均等-与当前情况的对比-作为收入的一种特别形式之利息的本质,与租金的区别

第六章 完全竞争的小前提条件166
对缺失不确定性的完全竞争必要条件的简要思考-调整中的诸要素的可分性-缺乏道德内涵的“生产力”一词-经济学意义上的生产,多种形式的垄断一竞争体制的垄断趋向和普遍僵局的趋势

第三篇 因风险与不确定性而导致的不完全竞争
第七章 风险和不确定性的含义189
知识理论的概况一行为中意识的作用-行为是有预见性的,知识的问题是预测-未来的知识取决于一种事实,即经验可按维持其同一性的物体的行为进行分析一但这里有太多需要我们动脑筋掌握的问题,所以我们主要是从一种行为模式推断出另一种,即取决于与资产相关的恒久性,一般来说,进行全面彻底的量化分析是不可能的,因此我们进行“估计”-通常,在我们指出的可能的行为模式中存在多样性,我们用不同结果的“概率”一词进行论证一先验概率与统计概率一判断的错误通常不受任何客观评价的影响,虽然我们是将它作为概率来估计的一产生利润的“风险”,主要具有偶然会判断错误的性质,由于过于独特,难以分类,因此无法测度

第八章 应对不确定性的诸种组织结构和方法224
对不确定性的态度-可变诸要素-自由企业-靠减少不确定性或专门化应付不确定性的职能来处理不确定性的经济组织-减少不确定性的主要方法是靠合并,虽然重要的结构存在于完全信息和对未来的直接控制之中-合并的主要手段是保险-投机专门利用风险,但与合并的手段同样重要-大规模经营,尤其是公司-企业的建立

第九章 企业和利润253
在完全均衡的静态社会中引入不确定性-管理职能的专门化和风险假定-固定收入和剩余收入-控制利润份额的诸条件,主要是企业家的胆怯和乐观,尤其在他们估计自己实力的时候-企业家能力的供给与需求

第十章 企业和利润(续)支薪经理人279
知识和控制的间接性-我们一般要评估别人评估我们的能力,而不是评估问题本身~同样,我们用让别人去做事的方法来解决事情-经理人的特点就是对人进行评判-最终的控制是对商业组织中掌权者的选择,这与责任是分不开的-现代工商界里权威和责任的分配

第十一章 不确定性与社会进步300
不确定性的主要根源,变化才是控制问题的根源-资源投资中的不确定性是投资职能与储蓄职能分离的原因-利息理论-与进步变化的不同形式相关的不确定性因素-由于利润的资本化而产生的复杂问题-利润的长期性;摩擦及流动性

第十二章 不确定性和利润的社会诸方面332
减少或再分配涉及成本的不确定性的所有方法-这些方法可应用的范围依这种不合要求的不确定性的程度而定-财产所有者及少数人对自由企业的集中控制及责任-自由企业和自由的对比-仅从效益的角度就十分清楚,人们为一笔不确定性的收益工作比为一笔确定的收益工作更有兴致而且更有效益-利润总量的问题-所有的证据表明它是负的一偏好某些其他制度而废除自由企业的问题-对经济活动进行控制并感受独立创造精神的问题-超出人的生命期限进行控制的大难题,社会的连续性和家庭问题
索引360
Book Abstract

用一种略为不同的方式来考虑相同的问题,将会使我们对个人动机的概念更为清晰,并且揭示出价值一成本思想的含义。如果我们从另一个方面来考虑,或者将轴线换一个角度,需求曲线实际上就成了生产成本曲线。任一价格水平上产出的量(单位时间的生产率),就是在该价格水平上所能生产的既没有利润也没有亏损的量。因为,如果任一给定价格条件下产生了利润,资源将被转入这种物品的生产;如果有了亏损,资源将会从这一物品的生产转出。因此利润的真实含义非常简单,即用于生产其他物品(以及其他价值)的资源的使用,将比该物品原来的生产产出更多;同理,损失意味着,用于当前物品生产的资源,在其他用途上的(它们的价2值由最优使用的价值决定)所值更多。根据这一观点,需求曲线表明的是不同供给水平的可能销售价格,均衡的条件是指成本和销售价格的均等。曲线的交点表明了一个轴线上生产和消费的均衡比率,以及另一个轴上的均衡价格。不用进一步的详细解释,这种根据选择法则进行推论的完整分析方法的特征,就很清楚了。
限于篇幅,我们不能对这些重要原理作更多的考察,我们必须允许保留上面这种简洁的、或许在富有争议的问题上多少带点教条化的分析方法。
Introduction

本书基本上没有什么新的内容,只是试图比以往更准确地阐述传统经济学说的基本原则,并更清楚地揭示其含义。这就是说,本书的目的在于改进而不是重建,是一种“纯理论”的研究。这种表达的背后动机有两个。第一,面对当前这个时代讲求实用和平庸的趋势,特别是我们这个国家思想上的特点,笔者本人希望,在社会问题领域中进行缜密的思考,对人类的福祉终究会有些意义。第二,笔者有种感觉,这个时代的“实用主义”只是一个过渡阶段,在某种程度上甚至只是一种姿态而已,即还存在一股对粗疏和浅薄思想的强烈不满的暗流和一种完全出于知识自尊的、对表述思想的流行学理与术语有更清晰的理解的真实渴求。本书会在合适的地方首先对这些假定进行适当的阐述或辩说。
一般经济学研究的“实用性”理由是,相信通过改善满足欲望活动的组织形式,人类生活质量也有改善的可能。更具体地说,多数社会改良的规划,都涉及到更有意识地用社会的或政治的控制形式,来替代私人财产和个人契约自由。当前这些研究所暗含的假设是,如果这种性质的变化对被提出要进行修正或替换的制度之本质和发展趋势有一个清楚的了解的话,那么,将为真正的改善提供更大的机会。

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