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Jingdong book

冲突的战略

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Books Economy Economic Theory

Jingdong book

冲突的战略

Name: 冲突的战略
Brand: Jingdong book
SKU: 3110062071
Price: 41.30 USD
Availability: OutOfStock

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Content Description

《冲突的战略》一书是为了满足理论需要，而非实际外交决策。主要目的是为了建立一个跨学科领域——该领域曾被人们称之为“讨价还价理论”、“冲突理论”或“战略理论”。作者托马斯·谢林想向人们证明，一些横跨经济学、社会学和政治学，甚至是法学和哲学或者是人类学的基础理论，不仅对从事理论研究的学者大有裨益，而且也有助于人们解决实际问题。与此同时，作者最初认为博弈论（the theory of games）在某些领域应该具有更多实用性。

Author Description

托马斯·谢林1951年获得哈佛大学经济学博士学位。后曾在美国哈佛大学的肯尼迪学院教学长达20年，担任政治经济学教授，并获得退休名誉教授的称号。之后他还在美国马里兰大学公共政策学院和经济系担任教授，并获得退休名誉教授称号。他教授的课程除经济学理论外，还涉及外交、国家安全、核战略以及军控等很多方面。谢林重要的理论著作包括《冲突的战略》、《选择与结果》、《武器与影响》等，其中前者是相关领域中具有开创性的理论著作之一。他的理论和思想不仅运用在经济学分析中，而且在外交、军事领域也有很深的影响。2005年瑞典皇家科学院授予托马斯·谢林诺贝尔经济学奖，以表彰他在博弈论方面的开创性贡献。在瑞典皇家科学院颁奖的新闻稿中就特别提到了他的《冲突的战略》一书。毫无疑问，《冲突的战略》是谢林获得诺贝尔经济学奖的最重要的原因。

Catalogue

第一部分战略理论构成要素
第1章缓慢发展的国际战略学
第2章论谈判
谈判实力：自我约束的实力
谈判机制及其结构特点
威胁
允诺
博弈游戏
第3章谈判，沟通与有限战争
默契（利益共同）
默式谈判（利益冲突）
显式谈判
默式谈判和有限战争
前期准备
第二部分博弈论的重新定位
第4章趋向互动决策理论
博弈再分类
协作博弈
混合博弈中的暗示与互动认知
第5章实施、沟通与战略行为
行为
威胁
允诺
主动权的放弃
定位
授权
调停
沟通及其破坏性
博弈矩阵中的行为组合
矛盾的战略优势
“战略行为”
第6章博弈论与实验研究
第三部分战略：充满随机性
第7章允诺和威慑的随机性
失败的风险
威胁意外实施的风险
随机性承诺
第8章产生随机因素的威慑
意外战争威胁
有限战争：风险的根源
有限战争中的危险行为
报复与侵扰
风险行为和“强制性”威胁
边缘政策
不完全决策过程
第四部分突袭：一种互不信任的分析
第9章双方对突袭的担心
概率的无限排序
具有“明确答案”的非合作博弈
重温旧题
不完全预警系统产生的随机行为
参变行为
默式博弈
谈判博弈
多人博弈
第10章突袭与裁军
误解侵袭
有限战争中的误解
互存误解
长期监控
超前机制
附录
附录A 核武器与有限战争
附录B 博弈论的非对称性
附录C 重释“非合作”博弈的决策理念
冲突利益
第三者的影响
释义收益
选手数量
结论
英中文译名对照及索引
译后记

Book Abstract

一个行人也可能临时指挥交通，疏缓堵车。这是因为堵车的司机为了尽快摆脱堵车而愿意将指挥权交给他。虽然指挥权只是建议性的，但是协作需要堵车司机共同承认这种建议权。还有一种情况，或许每一对舞伴都愿意跳自己喜欢的曲子，但是只要主持人拥有一个麦克风，就能迫使他们接受自己的曲子跳舞，不管他们喜欢与否。通常情况下，路中间的白线就是一个调停人，只要它能公平地对待马路两边的行人，并赢得他们的承认。有关夏令时的争议也说明这一问题。如果大部分人希望早一个小时工作，那么他们必须能够控制时钟。当然，即使他们这样做了，那些持反对意见、组织良好的一小部分人，往往不会改变自己的作息时间来适应这一调整。

调停人也可以帮助博弈双方保留某些积极条件。一个调停人可以发挥某种沟通的作用，也可以阻止某些信息的传递。（从这个意义上讲，调停人可以是一台计算仪器。）例如，调停人可以通过比较双方的发盘。然后指出双方存在的差距，但是不用暴露实际的发盘。他也可以是一部扫描仪，将一部分信息压缩其中。但是，调停人只能做出某些博弈双方无法实现的有限比较，因为没有选手专心致志于忘记什么事。

还有一个问题就是，如何解决左手得到右手需要的信息的问题。例如，政府的一些部门需要准确的收入资料用于数据统计分析：但是，政府的另一些部门可能需要这些数据用于增加税收或审查偷税漏税。于是，为了得到第一手资料，有关政府部门就有必要寻找一种方式保证这些资料不被落入有关税务部门手里。类似的情况。一些公司调停人通常只有在某种条件下才能将公司的商业秘密交给统计部门，如税务部门必须保证资料的用途有利于公司并保证使用完后将资料销毁：咨询调查机构必须保证以集体的方式发布信息，不能直接涉及个人隐私。当大宗货物的顾客认为如果物品所有者不知道谁是真实的买主，其即可支付便宜的价格时，调停人就发挥阻止双方身份定位的作用。

如果博弈双方决定将不可更改的权力交给调停人，那么调停人将发挥仲裁者的作用。但是只有当选手双方遭受损失时，允许仲裁者惩罚或给予其某种补偿的时候，仲裁协议才能发挥作用。当然，博弈双方必须相信仲裁者，并对其做出强制允诺。

……

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Jingdong book

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