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Jingdong book

经济决策的概率模型

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Jingdong book

经济决策的概率模型

Name: 经济决策的概率模型
Brand: Jingdong book
SKU: 3110073751
Price: 45.87 USD
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《经济决策的概率模型》特色：自始至终讲解如何在复杂的现实情形中运用概率论。
在金融、投资、竞标、激励机制、存货决策、排队模型等多方面应用。
一切分析工作都基于我们熟悉的Execel电子表格。
没学过概率论也没关系，《经济决策的概率模型》已经介绍了概率论的基本思想。
美国西北大学MBA学生对概率分析的理解如此困难，以致作为任课教授的罗杰B.迈尔森曾一度失去信心。但他最终耗费近20年写下该书，真正实现深人浅出，并致力于让全世界的MBA都能够将概率分析，应用于真正有趣的经济问题和案例之中。

Content Description

《经济决策的概率模型》是一本将概率模型用于分析风险和经济决策的入门教材。全书自始至终倾力向读者阐明，如何在复杂的现实情形中运用概率论，并将概率论晦涩的数学运算融入到生动有趣的现实经济生活中。全书的分析性工作都是在Microsoft Excel电子表格中进行的，这种方法有助于读者处理更为复杂的问题。强调电子表格建模的结果是，阅读完《经济决策的概率模型》的读者可从中学到精妙的电子表格技巧，轻松获得概率分析的应用能力。
《经济决策的概率模型》适用于经济管理类专业高年级本科生和MBA学员，也可作为从事概率论、经济决策或数量建模等课程研究的人员参考读物。

Author Description

罗杰·B.迈尔森，1951年出生在美国波士顿，1976年获得哈佛大学应用数学博士学位。现任美国芝加哥大学教授。研究专长包括经济学领域里的博弈论和政治学领域里的投票体制等。20世纪80年代，美国加州的电力改革要打破电力垄断的弊端。迈尔森用“机制设计”理论很好地为此改革设计了方案并运行至今，效果良好。2007年诺贝尔经济学奖授予罗杰B迈尔森。以表彰他在创建和发展。机制设计理论”方面所做的贡献。瑞典皇家科学院声明说，“机制设计理论”有助于经济学家、各国政府和企业识别在何种情况下市场机制有效，何种情况下市场机制无效，帮助人们确定有效的贸易机制、政策手段和决策过程。

Comments

“对于那些学习内容将超出本书之外的学生，我希望大家可以发现：无论对于商业和个人生活中的实践应用，还是对于统计和经济分析中的理论模型，电子表格模拟模型都是一种极为有用的手段，可帮助我们对不确定条件下的决策获得有益洞见。”
——罗杰 B.迈尔森对本书中文版寄语

Catalogue

目录
译者序
教学建议
前言
作者简介
第1章模拟与条件概率
1.1 从Excel中的Simstools开始
1.2 如何在电子表格中掷硬币
1.3 20个销售电话的模拟模型
1.4 用Excel的“数据一模拟运算表”命令进行分析
1.5 条件独立
1.6 来自三角分布的一个连续随机技能变量
1.7 概率树和贝叶斯法则
1.8 电子表格高级技巧：创建一个多重输入表格
1.9 模型运用
小结
练习题

第2章离散随机变量
2.1 不确定性决策中的未知量
2.2 绘制一个概率分布
2.3 模拟离散随机变量
2.4 期望值和标准差
2.5 从样本中进行估计
2.6 样本估计的精度
2.7 决策标准
2.8 多元随机变量
小结
练习题

第3章常风险容限的效用理论
3.1 考虑风险规避：概率下的效用分析
3.2 模拟数据的效用分析
3.3 线性风险容限更一般的假设
3.4 关于效用理论的高技术性注解
3.5 关于常风险容限的高技术性注解
小结
练习题

第4章连续随机变量
4.1 正态分布
4.2 指数函数和自然对数函数
4.3 对数正态分布
4.4 广义对数正态分布
4.5 主观概率估计
4.6 含有离散和连续未知量的决策问题
4.7 正态彩票的确定性等价
4.8 其他概率分布
小结
练习题

第5章多元正态随机变量与相关性
5.1 离散随机变量的联合分布
5.2 协方差和相关性
5.3 几个随机变量的线性函数
5.4 根据数据估计相关性
5.5 用CORAND和NORMINV创建多元正态随机变量
5.6 多元正态资产回报下的投资组合分析
5.7 ExceI求解工具与有效投资组合设计
5.8 相关性的主观评估
5.9 在非正态随机变量下运用CORAND
5.10 随机变量线性函数的深入说明
小结
练习题

第6章条件期望
6.1 随机变量之间的依存性
6.2 估计条件期望和标准差
6.3 离散例子中的期望后验法则
6.4 树图中条件期望的逆向分析
6.5 条件期望关系与相关性
6.6 关于概率的不确定性
6.7 线性回归模型
6.8 最小平方误差和回归分析
小结
练习题

第7章决策变量的最优化
7.1 决策分析中运用模拟的一般技巧
72信息的策略性运用
7.3 决策树
7.4 一个简单的竞价问题
7.5 赢家的诅咒
7.6 竞争行为分析
小结
练习题

第8章风险分担与金融
8.1 常风险容限个人合伙中的最优风险分担
8.2 大量非线性分担规则中线性规则的最优性
8.3 受制于道德风险激励约束的风险分担
8.4 道德风险下的分段线性分担规则
8.5 公司决策制定与股票市场的资产定价
8.6 套利定价理论的基本思想
小结
练习题

第9章增长和到达的动态模型
9.1 净现值
9.2 预测模型
9.3 预测的例子：戈音案例
9.4 布朗运动增长模型
9.5 对数最优投资策略
9.6 指数到达模型
9.7 排队模型
9.8 简单的存货模型
9.9 项目时间长度与紧急任务
小结
练习题

附录与本书一起使用的Excel插件
参考文献

Introduction

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为了更好地帮助广大维修人员，尤其是初学者快速掌堂握手机维修的要点和技巧，达到即学即用，编者在大量收集手机相关维修资料的基础上，精心编排，尽量采用通俗易懂的语言描述而编著了本书。
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