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Jingdong book

中国农户经济行为与乡村治理

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中国农户经济行为与乡村治理

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本书从分析中国农户家庭的经济行为入手,比较了恰亚诺夫非市场条件下的小农理论、舒尔茨完全市场条件下的理性小农理论以及黄宗智的中国特殊国情下小农理论的异同及各自对于中国现状的适应性,并在此基础上提出了自己从家庭出发理解当代中国农户经济行为的全新理论,对中国目前的乡村治理提出了自己的看法和建议。
Author Description

刘怀宇,经济学博士,博士后,现为中国传媒大学文化发展研究院香港籍研究员,曾任及兼任亚洲开发银行生态保护项目生态经济专家、中国社会科学院调查与数据中心专聘研究员。主要研究方向包括劳动力问题、复杂经济系统演化及文化经济发展等。
Catalogue

第一章起点
一几个问题
二两个派生问题的讨论
三概念界定
四两个主要假说体系评述
五当代中国国内学者研究的简要综述
六小结
第二章农村土地、劳动力和金融
一土地要素情况简析
二劳动力要素情况简析
三农村信贷要素市场和保险市场的失灵
四结论
第三章农户家庭要素配置——人力资本的视角
一一个猜想——农户家庭人力资本配置方式
二一个假定——中国农户家庭生产和消费的不可分性
三猜想成立的几个必要条件
四农村家庭风险规避问题
五农户家庭的人力资本配置方式对土地问题的含义
六非农就业问题
七结论
第四章农户家庭劳动力配置决策机制的讨论——一个多主体模型的视角
一研究的理论基础及假定
二模型
三模型仿真计算结果及分析
四劳动力依然是决定粮食产量的主要因子——一个实证研究
五五个阶段不同土地产权制度下劳动力生产效率的实证研究
六一些延伸讨论
七结论
第五章农户家庭人力资本配置与劳动力市场
一农业劳动力机会成本对农民闲暇选择和粮食生产率影响的机制分析
二模型建构
三“用工荒”、本书与城乡劳动力市场
四一个延伸讨论——通过提高农产品价格来提升农民收入的一个困境
五“刘易斯拐点”假象及其对“人口红利”释放的冲击
六结论
第六章农户家庭要素配置与村社、政府的相互作用
一背景
二相关概念内涵及理论假说
三村社与农户间的作用机制——基于贝克尔模型的理论框架
四村社集体理性对中国工业原始资本积累的作用
五村社与政府的交易:村社精英是农民与政府合作成败的重要因子
——基于纳什议价博弈模型
六农村家庭劳动力配置方式与村社集体理性——对乡镇企业衰败的一个讨论
七结论
第七章乡村治理与新型城镇化
一乡村治理(历史)
二新型城镇化
三新型城镇化与乡村治理
四乡村治理
第八章总结
致谢
Introduction

在当代中国的农户家庭经济行为研究中,两个貌似对立却都是基于理性的边际主义经济理论进行分析的假说——恰亚诺夫的“生产—消费均衡”假说和舒尔茨的“利润最大化”假说,一直是我们进行农村经济研究的主要理论框架。在本书作者看来,这两个主要假说体系之所以互相区别,根本原因在于不同时期和不同国家的不同经济和制度背景,恰亚诺夫假说体系是基于劳动力市场和土地市场缺失的极端条件下的要素市场背景;而舒尔茨假说体系是基于完全市场的另一个极端条件下的要素市场背景。
中国在经历了60余年的经济发展后,整体经济制度经历了从新中国成立初期以工业化积累为目标的计划经济制度体系向以西方新自由主义经济体系为方向的市场经济制度的转型。在此转型期间,中国农村的要素市场既不是完全缺失的也不是完全竞争的,具体表现为:劳动力市场已经形成并蓬勃发展,但主体依旧是城乡二元分割的劳动力市场;通过革命而非交易取得的村集体内部均分的体现农户成员权的农村土地产权制度也不可能形成完全竞争的土地要素市场;在信贷资本方面,由信息不完全、交易成本过高等导致的正规金融机构撤出,非正规金融机构仍旧以高利贷为主流的市场局面使农户依旧处在风险较高的不完全信贷市场中,而农户家庭和市场风险的管理机制几乎缺失。本书就是基于这样的不完全要素市场的背景,区别于两个不同市场背景的假说体系,对中国农户家庭生产要素的配置方式进行研究。
一般来说,农户家庭的效用函数是生产和消费决策不可分的预期效用函数,在新家庭经济学中单一模型的基础上,农户家庭利用仅存的人力资本和土地资本形成资产投资组合,以期在加入风险规避因子的前提下实现家庭预期效用最大化。此时,在外出打工越来越成为家庭获取现金收入的主要方式的影响下,土地成为农户对冲外出就业机会成本增加的外部风险的主要无风险资产因素,而人力资本在非农就业及土地部分非自给自足且非粮食补贴范围内的其他农产品方面获得的收入成为风险资产回报。在土地愈益成为农户无风险资产这样的理论假说前提下土地使用权长期转让式的流转愈发困难,原因在于除了土地,农民无法轻易获得其他形式的无风险资产。由于非农收入的存在,农户家庭在农业生产要素配置方面显示出低效率,但在家庭整体的生产要素配置方面却是高效率的,福利水平也能得到相应的提高。
据此,当农户体现出投资人的理性时,外部不完全市场作为制度环境对其经济行为产生制约作用,使农户可以根据情况对家庭人力资本配置进行最优组合。由国家工业化和资本化的“非常规”发展模式导致的生产关系变化迅速压低了农民劳动时间的社会价值,结果是,或者农民的收入更低,或者农民为维持原有收入水平而劳动更多,客观上导致了农民人力资本投资在农业和工业雇佣劳动收益的不平衡,最终影响了农户人力资本投资的方向选择。
正是在这样的家庭生产要素配置条件下,农户家庭得以形成内部化处理外部性问题的机制,农户经济的外部效应是正的。本书指出:这种农户与社区借助血缘地缘关系形成的产权共享,以及奠基于此的非契约性的集体行动形成的风险规避和家庭资本积累机制所体现的经济理性,可因农户家庭人力资本配置的内部化方式而被称为家庭理性。正是这种理性的农户行为产生了区别于恰亚诺夫假说的家庭资本的积累,使农户整体经济得到了“发展”。
在当今中国城市快速市场化的条件下,乡土社会的农民作为农业劳动力投入的主体,其成本意识也在城乡收入差距扩大和过高的城市生活成本导致的劳动力市场非竞争均衡的条件下出现了重要变化:劳动力农业投入的机会成本异化于农业劳动投入的收入,而对应于预期的城市打工收入,从而使农村居民为了追求收入和闲暇的效用最大化而选择本书提出的人力资本投资行为;向往城市居民生活的农民工由于城市生活成本高,即使获得了高于农业生产收益的城市制造业打工收入也仍无法支付城市生活的基本成本,因此也会出现选择本书提出的人力资本投资行为的可能,在城市形成与农村相似的“用工荒”和失业并存的局面,最终在导致农业投入不足的同时,出现城市就业形势严峻的困局。
由于农业生产的特性,个体农户的要素配置受到农田水利灌溉等公共品供给的约束,同时由于传统村社千丝万缕的血缘关系等伦理特征和中国农村村社土地共有的产权制度安排,个体农户的效用势必受到村社社会环境的影响,此时村社集体的福利水平成为个体农户家庭预期效用最大化的约束条件,因此个体农户家庭可能会在传统村社范围内进行合作以提高村社整体福利水平来放松约束条件并减少系统风险。在这样的背景下,传统村社内部会形成类似于家庭理性的村社内部成员间部分风险共担、部分收入分享的内部化机制,可称之为村社集体理性。自1960年代以来,以工业化积累为目标的计划经济体制到当代以新自由主义经济为主体的经济制度的演变导致的中国土地产权制度的变迁体现的是政府在非交易取得的先天残缺的土地产权中根据不同需要进行介入的过程;同时与这种介入力量持续抗衡的不是农户个体的土地产权,而是村社产权边界清晰、体现内部农户“成员权”的传统村社村民小组的集体产权。本地村社精英的双重代理身份使政府与农民之间的信息交换通常可以形成多次博弈的纳什议价均衡,实现最优的效率产出。
家庭理性与村社集体理性构成了农村社区通过内部化来缓解系统风险的基础,也降低了农民组织化的交易费用;在这两种机制下,村社有条件在技术水平较低的劳动密集型产业中形成剩余。
然而随着中国工业化和现代化的发展,特别是在中国东部沿海地区已经进入后工业化时代的背景下,这些非正规制度性安排也给中国农村带来了更为严重的不确定性问题,继而衍生出更加复杂的“三农”问题。现时的中国,农村劳动力外移愈发严重,而城市却出现用工荒,人口红利渐失;农村金融资本继续净流出,农村金融问题至今未破题,本来为解决农业金融问题批准设立的村镇银行、小额贷款公司几乎全线“脱农”,正规资金互助社经营惨淡,非正规资金互助社遍地开花、缺乏监管、非法集资现象严重;农村土地非法征占严重,农民利益难以保障,18亿亩耕地红线难保。面对今天的这些问题,如果我们还是唱着昨天的歌谣,忽视农户的基本经济行为准则和家庭真实需求,将我们诗人般的农村建设情怀构建在真实的乡村治理方面,只会将问题掩盖和堆积,最终引发更严重的乡村治理危机。笔者认为,中国的理性农户家庭经济行为及以血缘和宗族为纽带形成的自然理性村社的形成基础,在于血缘地缘关系及土地产权的共有属性,因此家庭及自然村社得以实现内部化系统风险的风险规避及具有强烈发展特征的资本积累的合作生产,才实现了工业化和现代化的“发展”。从乡村治理角度来看,是长期小农经济和近代战乱频仍的社会环境造就了以抵御风险为基本出发点的熟人乡土社会和村社精英自治的传统中国乡村治理体系。在国家经济高速增长的同时,城市部门依然可以利用这种村社集体理性机制在经济产生波动时将危机转嫁到农村而不至于产生显著反弹,因此,村社“集体产权”这种得以与村社集体理性相结合的非正规制度安排,是中国得以迅速发展和缓解危机的重要的比较制度优势之一。但,这种优势和治理体系对当今全球化经济条件下已经步入工业化和现代化社会的中国来说已经完成了历史使命,今后的中国乡村治理模式需要在工业化和现代化社会的正规制度安排下进行设计,进行制度创新,彻底摆脱对旧式非正规制度安排的路径依赖。
本书是笔者在这方面研究的初步成果,这些研究对农户家庭经济行为从复杂经济演化系统的角度切入,通过实证数据来支撑逻辑和研究结论。当然这些研究和模型还相对比较粗糙,但笔者还是不揣冒昧奉献给大家,请大家批评指正,如能够对您未来的研究和思考有所帮助将是笔者最大的荣幸。

刘怀宇
2015年12月19日初稿就于北京大山子寓所

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欣叶 御大福 芋头麻薯 180g

周销量 600+

$1.66 $1.99 83折
Yami
欣葉
2种选择
欣叶 御大福 芋头麻薯 180g

周销量 600+

$1.66 $1.99 83折
Yami
欣葉
2种选择
欣叶 御大福 芋头麻薯 180g

周销量 600+

$1.66 $1.99 83折
Yami
欣葉
2种选择
欣叶 御大福 芋头麻薯 180g

周销量 600+

$1.66 $1.99 83折

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