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诺贝尔经济学奖获得者丛书:养老金改革反思

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全球性的老龄化对落后的养老金供给的迅速冲击是困扰全世界的一个重要问题。对老龄化趋势的认识引发了关于确保老龄人口退休后生存条件衡量标准的广泛而又深远的争论。《诺贝尔经济学奖获得者丛书:养老金改革反思》为全球所关注的社会保障问题提供了有关养老金管理的独特学术和实务视角。作者为决策者设计了多种基本体系,他们可以从中开发一个可以达到其任何目的的体系。《诺贝尔经济学奖获得者丛书:养老金改革反思》考察了拉丁美洲社会保障体系改革中存在的缺点,及这些改革的真实成本和影响这些成本的因素;还讨论了美国和西班牙的社会保障改革是如何能够执行包含了很多完美特征的健康体系的;最后检验了一些所提议的混合选择,展示了这些混合的有益特征是如何通过设计优良的单只基金而被获得的。
Author Description

佛朗哥·莫迪利亚尼( Franco Modigliani), 985年诺贝尔经济学奖得主,曾是麻省理工学院经济学和金融学教授,他的学术贡献主要是在金融市场功能和家庭储蓄行为分析方面的开创性工作。他的著作大多与社会保障、资本市场、货币供给、欧元和失业有关。主要著作有《稳定政策之争论夺》(The Debate over St曲ilization Policy)和自传《经济学家的探险》(Adventures of anEconom ist)。他的学术论文被编为五卷,于1980年至1989年出版。

阿伦·莫拉利达尔( Arun Muralidhar) ,现为FX概念公司(一家私募基金管理公司)的执行总裁,以及Mcube投资技术有限责任公司(该公司通过创新技术协助养老金进行资产管理)的董事长。在此之前,莫拉利达尔博士为位于华盛顿特区的世界银行投资部研发中心的负责人和投资委员会成员,并进而成为J.P.摩根投资管理集团执行总裁和流动性研究中心主任。他是《养老金管理创新》(Innovations in Pension Fund Management,2003 )一书的作者,并在一系列核心期刊上发表了多篇论文。
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《养老金改革反思》一书的问世及其在养老金管理方面开创性的建议是不可超越的。伟大的佛朗哥·莫迪利亚尼在其遗著中与本书的第二作者阿伦·莫拉利达尔重新评估了我们真正乐于承受的风险,解释了一般退休投资建议中的关键性瑕疵,并且对养老金改革给出了一个具有建设性的可供选择的提议。无论是决策者还是一般读者,均可从中受益。
——罗伯特·C·默顿(诺贝尔经济学奖得主,哈佛大学)

佛朗哥·莫迪利亚尼——一个伟大的经济学家——留给了处于人口变革时代的我们一部必读的防止美国社会保障制度毁灭的读物。乔治.W.布什及我们所有人有太多需要从莫迪利亚尼的鲜活数据中认真研究的东西。
——保罗·A·萨缪尔森(诺贝尔经济学奖得主,麻省理工学院)

本书提供了社会保障制度的概览和当前有关养老金改革争论的指导。这是应有的全部理念和评论,不是单纯的口号。这也是一个年轻作者和我敬爱的同事佛朗哥·莫迪利亚尼这两代人的成果。
——罗伯特·M·索洛(诺贝尔经济学奖得主,麻省理工学院)
Catalogue

第1章 养老金改革的概述
概念
养老金体系的案例
小结
附录1.1 养老金缴费、期望回报和替代率之间的关系

第2章 养老金改革问题的分类
引言
社会保障:定义、必要属性和设计特征
“完美模型”(与其他计划的比较)
小结

第3章 养老金改革的评估
智利的革命及其对拉丁美洲和世界银行的征服
基金积累制与现收现付制的比较
对赤字PAYGO体系过渡的融资
从DB到DC的社会保障体系转变
转向“私营”基金管理的问题
管制与政治风险
小结

第4章 固定缴费计划的福利成本
目标的重要性
分析的框架
模拟的有关假定
分析的结论
小结
附录4.1 经济变量间的相关系数
附录4.2 以情景分析的方式获取经济不确定性
附录4.3 全部结果概览
附录4.4 养老金计划中40个参与者的特征

第5章 从PAYGO到普通投资组合积累的转变:美国的实践
从PAYGO到部分或完全积累转变问题:值得干吗?假如值得,如何干?
一个一般化的转变机制
改革的需要与对美国的提议
金融问题
小结
附录5.1 零增长率条件下有关转变的动态细节
附录5.2 完美模拟与克林顿政府建议的比较
附录5.3 我们的计划中有关转变的细节
附录5.4 回报率的选择

第6章 西班牙的社会保障改革
西班牙的社会保障体系改革
西班牙的社会保障体系
缴费性社会保障体系的财务预测
……
第7章 “两养老金”定理
第8章 混合体系的案例及不定额缴费:提升养老金体系的业绩
参考文献
译后记
Book Abstract

用于支付以往债务的最常见的形式是由智利人发行的这种认可债券。其主要向政府要求偿还,且只有到退休时才能够进行交易,有可能被赋予一个场外利率,并以向年老的参与者发行作为特色。
在美国,在试图延长社会保障体系寿命的努力中,有学者(Feldstein and Samwick,1997)提出一项建立个人退休账户的建议,该账户的缴费率为2%,其60%投资于股票,40%投资于债券。这些缴费可能是12%的社会保障缴费之外的部分,计划获得实际5.5%的收益率,并且通过向个人提供美元对美元的——为他们打算在其个人账户中存人数量——个人所得税抵免,从而为发行提供便利。该账户与简化社会保障养老金的组合——与年老等因素造成的收益减少相一致——应该将社会保障目前的12. 4%的缴费率无限地扩大。让人欣慰的是,该计划依靠的是来自市场中证券储备——而不是政府债券——投资回报更多释放的预期,就像在信托基金(trust fund)的储备所做的那样。
在1997年就曾预期这些抵免可以通过预期未来的预算盈余(大约为国内生产总值的0.8%)进行补偿。Modigliani and Modigliani(1987)认为,个人应该使用这些盈余为这类过渡埋单,而不应支付高额的税收。但是,由于布什政府的减税政策以及自2001年以来的经济增长放缓,这些盈余不会成为现实;因此,美国政府将会最终以举债的方式弥补这些税收抵免。
Corsetti and Schmidt-Hebbel (1997)对债务补偿方式和盈余补偿的过渡进行了评估,并且认为债务补偿过渡对国民储蓄、资本存量和跨期福利分配仅有一个边际冲击,尽管这些结果与Modigliani(1966)的结果存在巨大的差异。很明显,盈余或者税收补偿过渡方式以那些现在纳税人的利益为代价,增加了未来非纳税人的福利。Valdes-Prieto (1997)可能会认为,如果增长效应或者额外储蓄没有被触发,福利不会得到提升。
……
Introduction

困扰全世界的一个重要问题是全球性的老龄化对落后的养老金供给的迅速冲击。对老龄化趋势的认识引发了关于确保老龄人口退休后生存条件衡量标准的广泛而又深远的争论。这个主题催生了在养老金改革领域的专家,他们提出了基于政治、社会或者经济方面的各种建议。因此,在涉及极端立场的养老金改革领域存在激烈的争论,这些立场的支持方通常具有既定的利益。遗憾的是,争论中的严重分歧使得基于价值及政治学习与经济分析问的差距变得模糊(NASI,1999;ACSS,1997;Barr,2000)。除此以外,关于养老金改革值得思考的两个不同问题为:(1)哪种体系将要成为未来的选择;(2)在给定的经济和政治条件下(转型问题),如果未来的模型与现在的不同,我们将如何获得这个模型?分析家们对此持有坚决且不同的观点(ACSS, 1997; Schieber and Shoven, 1999)。
养老金改革问题迫在眉睫。很多国家接受了一种融资性的养老金创新计划。该计划首先由Chancellor Otto von Bismarck在19世纪提出,在20世纪30年代被很多国家接受,这个计划被称为“现收现付制”( pay-as-you-go,PAYGO)。传统的养老金体系是“基金积累性”的,也就是说,养老金的给付来源于有关参与者、雇主或者这两者整个工作期间供款的资金积累。在现收现付制计划下,养老金的给付来源于正在工作的成员的供款。
为什么这么多国家选择了现收现付制计划?简单的原因是:在基金积累性体系下,养老金的支付来源于每个退休人员账户的资金积累。因此,只有那些在整个工作生涯中缴款的参加者才能获得全额的养老金。那些将要退休但没有向养老金体系缴款的人们将得不到养老金。但是,在现收现付制计划下,目前雇员的供款从第一天就被用来支付所有雇员的全额养老金,就好像他们在自己整个工作生涯都进行了缴费。由于这个原因,当普遍的强制性养老金计划推行之后,现收现付制提供了最吸引人的解决方案。实际上,使用现收现付制的决策使得那些没有缴费的人们牺牲了后代的给付而获得了养老金,而后代们则失去了资金体系的资本积累(通常没有意识到有关选择的后果)。
……

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