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谁也逃不掉的经济大动荡 泡沫大破灭,你该怎么办

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★中国投资有限责任公司原副总经理兼首席风险官汪建熙
《财经》杂志原主编、《新世纪》周刊总编辑胡舒立
香港证监会原主席、中国银监会首席顾问沈联涛
联袂推荐
★我们是不是该股市抄底?
我们是不是该狠狠心去买房?
我们是不是该看好升值的人民币?
我们是不是该投资黄金白银?
谁是绑架房价的帮凶?谁是操纵经济的幕后黑手?
中国经济会崩溃吗?谁能看清泡沫本质?谁是洗劫财富的杀手?
我们应该如何应对乃至利用危机?如何才能不仅保卫财富,还能实现几何级增长?

Content Description

毋庸置疑,我们正处在经济大危机、大动荡之中,每个人都无从选择,也无法逃避。
然而,大危机也意味着大洗牌,意味着社会资源、社会财富的重新分配。能够站在“金字塔”顶端的永远只是少数人。谁能看清趋势、看准时机,谁就能不仅“存活”下来,使既有财富得以保存,还能进一步实现财富的几何级增长。
在书中,作者根据自身的丰富经验与深刻洞见,给出了明确的投资建议,以及系统而具体的应对方法。谁能得其三昧,谁就能出奇制胜,成为最后的赢家。

Author Description

吴学军,四川安岳人,1990年获中国人民大学经济学硕士学位,早年在大学任教,后下海经商,同时从事学术研究,涉足多个行业,是中国改革开放后早期参与推动资本市场、艺术品市场、房地产市场发展的专业人士之一,也是资深的会计金融人士、企业管理者和职业经理人。著有《中国证券市场研究》《会计核算与财务管理》等书,公开发表文章50余篇。其事迹曾刊登于《人民日报》上,并收录在《人在华南》一书中。中国人民大学编著的《人民共和国的建设者》也有专题记录。

罗世滨,原名罗世兵。1993年获中国人民大学经济学硕士学位,曾留校任教,也曾在知名金融机构、大型投资公司从事管理工作,现以写作为主,在报刊、杂志发表过多篇文章。


Catalogue

自 序
第一章 逃不掉的泡沫大破灭
第一节 逃不出的金融投机
金属货币的进化
金属货币下的投机游戏
投机的最高境界——货币成为掠夺工具
第二节 无处不在的泡沫迷幻
郁金香泡沫
南海泡沫
华尔街大崩溃
硬通货虚化为不靠谱的信用
现代金融幻术
第三节 疯狂、惊恐与崩溃
识别投机狂热
崩溃时刻的到来
疯狂、惊恐、崩溃
第四节 泡沫破灭的导火线
泡沫导火线探秘
泡沫可以杜绝吗
第二章 流动性泛滥与中国泡沫
第一节 泛滥的流动性
超发的货币
繁荣与泡沫共生
与泡沫共舞
隐蔽的滞胀
财富的“乾坤大挪移”
第二节 隐蔽的吸金黑洞
“看空”中雄起
泡沫黑洞
国企黑洞
炫富的时代
第三节 泡沫的制度基础
日本泡沫的制度基础
东亚泡沫的制度缺陷
金融自由化与泡沫
计划体制下的“短缺”与“泡沫”
中国泡沫的制度基础
再读明斯基
第四节 中国房地产泡沫
房地产发展历程
调控声成为涨价的协奏曲
房地产泡沫的国际比较
房地产泡沫刚性的制度成因
第三章 激荡30年的喜与忧
第一节 高歌猛进的30年
30年发展神话
令人称赞的五大成就
第二节 30年神话的背后
寻找坐标
历史的选择
异化的GDP
倾斜的天平
第三节 “国富民强”的玄机
国富与民强
分配功能的异化
隐性收入与灰色收入
高发的腐败
贫富悬殊如云泥
夹板中的中产阶级
走向民富国强
第四节 脆弱而孤独的大国
踌躇于身份的认同
脆弱的社会结构
曾经的主流日益边缘
受制于人的外向型经济
孤独的行者
第四章 繁荣背后的动荡隐忧
第一节 增长与破坏共生
环境污染
资源消耗
沉重的“地耗”
第二节 断裂的城乡关系
扭曲的城市化
房地产绑架城市化
凋敝的乡村
第三节 经济发展模式背后的隐忧
效法“东亚模式”
“东亚模式”拐了一个弯
被误读的“中国模式”
“中国模式”背后的陷阱
“北京共识”与“华盛顿共识”
第五章动荡中的生存之道——我们将走向何方
第一节 房地产泡沫破灭的路径猜想
警讯与预期的变化
慢撒气还是“砰”的一声
日本步入“失去年代”的启示
中国会崩溃于房地产泡沫破灭吗
第二节 未来经济的路径选择
危机是转型经济的成人礼
误入渐进式改革陷阱
“软着陆”是大势所趋
制度创新奠定未来
第三节 自求多福——危机中如何生存
泡沫破灭终将到来
高手死在抄底里
金银靠谱吗
外币与本币的纠结选择
大宗商品还会持续看涨吗
紧抓住农产品与土地
警惕中国股市
回归实业与高科技

Book Abstract

自从有了货币,人类疯狂与贪婪的“动物精神”注定了投机会随之出现,货币与投机因此成为连体兄弟。而投机的过度导致了泡沫的产生。
早期的货币投机发生在政府与民间,这时候的政府刚从“丛林”中走出不久,崇尚弱肉强食的“丛林法则”,游戏就不免带有掠夺的成分。集权政府毫无顾忌,因此也就自然将货币投机游戏演变成赤裸裸的财富抢劫。与此同时,民间也开始了互玩,民间的智慧丝毫不逊色于官方,所以民间的投机游戏玩得更是有声有色,不断出现五彩的泡沫迷幻。
最早有记载的经济泡沫是1636年荷兰出现的郁金香泡沫,大约因为玩郁金香确实有些过分、有些傻气,经济学上于是有了所谓的“博傻”理论。说是博傻,其实参与的都是聪明人,但比的却是谁更傻。真正的傻子和真正的聪明人是不投机的。
什么是泡沫?西方经济学界很早就有了明确的定义,泡沫就是任何高度投机的不良商业行为。而高度投机的原因是投资者相信明天他们能够以更高的价格卖出自己所购买的商品。至于资产是什么,在泡沫中根本就无关紧要,可以是金属货币本身、花草、农作物、矿山、金属、铁路、运河、债券、新的公司形态、新的技术运用、土地、房屋,以及衍生的金融工具等,也可以是“确保女人贞洁”、“经营和承揽巨大好处,但没人知道它是什么”的公司。
历史上所有泡沫经济的兴起,无一例外都是货币太多、流动性泛滥的结果。郁金香泡沫背后是私人信贷的扩张,南海事件背后是索沃德银行,密西西比泡沫背后是皇家银行。现代金融制度下的信贷扩张、金融创新工具等更是催生泡沫的利器。
现代金融几乎已经渗透到公众生活的每一个角落,泡沫已成为经济生活的一部分,我们绝大多数人,被动也好,主动也好,都是泡沫的共舞者。
很多时候,泡沫会发生在一个国家或地区经济转型及出现重大技术创新时,“咆哮的20年代”指北美地区20世纪20年代。是如此,日本泡沫、东南亚泡沫,19世纪英美的铁路泡沫、20世纪末的互联网泡沫依然如此,包括中国现在的泡沫也是如此。在经济转型和重大技术创新推动下的泡沫,很可能被当成新时代的开始。因为自以为是新时代,老的规则就不再有用,人们也不屑于用现有的经验和数据推测未来,人们需要偏执,相信“只有偏执狂才能生存”。
很可惜,只要是泡沫,最终都会一一破灭在人们面前。如果是曾经以为的泡沫但最终却并未破灭,那泡沫其实是经济结构性转变过程中出现的一个快速而激烈的自然反应。奇怪的是,即使是在重大技术革命出现后的所谓新时代里,泡沫最终也不得不归于寂灭,铁路投机狂热如是,“?COM”公司狂热依然如是。对于泡沫而言,似乎从来就没有什么新时代。
很多研究者认为,适度的投机与泡沫是经济增长的润滑剂。少数学者更是认为超大型泡沫甚至可以改变一个民族的特性,法国在18世纪不到一百年的工夫,政府和民间互动玩出了超豪华的密西西比和“指券”两个泡沫,搞得法国人从此都有些神经质了,比世界上任何民族都更为浪漫;而日本泡沫过后,日本民族似乎也更加含蓄和热爱储蓄了。
第一节 逃不出的金融投机
货币是我们每天都会接触到,也是绝大多数人向往的好东西。上至总统,下至平民百姓,无不趋之若鹜,唯恐其少。对于什么是货币,我们一般人倒是搞懂了,那就是钱嘛,但经济学家似乎还没搞懂,因此,经济学上的货币概念五花八门,有说货币是金属的,有说货币是特殊商品的,有说货币只是一个名目的,还有浪漫主义者认为货币是一层美妙的面纱,遮掩在商品之上,后来又形成了作为一种经济变量或政策变量的货币定义。
这就玩得有些深沉了,搞得我们连货币还是不是钱都有些怀疑了,而这正是经济学家的高深之处,说的都是你搞不懂的。那正是我要说的,我说的如果你都懂,我就不如不说。
我们一般人也不要因为搞不懂货币究竟还是不是钱,就自认智商低下,以为自己真是没学问,其实“在研究货币本质中受到欺骗的人,比谈恋爱受欺骗的人还要多”,看来经济学家们也没怎么搞懂。如果真是搞懂了,这个世界也就变成他们家的了,国王都只好做他们的仆役。他们绝大部分和你我一样,都在为饭钱发愁,只不过咱操心的是面包钱,他们操心的是血燕之类。好点的、搞过一些大萧条研究的都已经出任中央银行行长或者美联储主席了,其实也是天天为钱犯愁。
金属货币的进化
货币的进化是一个从简单到复杂,到最后谁也搞不清楚为什么会这么复杂的一个过程。
原始社会,人们采用以物易物的交易方式。这种方式受限太多,需得是双方正好需要彼此的东西方可达成,且一般无法找零,吃亏或者上当大约是免不了的。好在原始人质朴,也就不太往心里去,但终归是感觉不顺,回去可能还得受到族人或者不定是哪个老婆的唠叨。于是聪明人开始寻找一种能被交换双方接受的中介物,这种中介物就是最原始的货币。牲畜、盐、稀有的贝壳、珍稀鸟类羽毛、宝石、沙金、石头等不容易大量获取的物品都曾经作为货币被使用过。
作为交易中介物的货币,首先得稀缺,如果是用空气做中介,说,这一堆空气是你的了,你把那群羊给我,这个买卖肯定就黄了;其次是易于保管,时间久了也不会腐烂;最重要的是得有一群人认同。因为金银铜等贵金属稀少,看起来还闪闪发亮,大家就很稀罕,因此它们在很多国家和地区相继成为货币。马克思说“金银天然不是货币,但货币天然是金银”。这话听起来有点费解,但在他那个时代是真理。因为是真理,所以就没必要俯身以就,高高在上就足矣,不需要一定让你搞明白,你搞不明白它也是真理。这就是货币本质的金属论,货币也就等于金属,货币的价值取决于贵金属的价值。
早期的金属货币是块状的,使用时需要先测其成色、称重量,很麻烦,后来就有权威机构站出来铸造成色、重量统一的硬币,这样在使用的时候,既不需要测试成色,也不需要称重量,无疑方便得多。货币的统一推动了交易的发展,但同时也为投机和泡沫的产生创造了条件。
中国最早的金属货币是商朝的青铜币。青铜那时属于高档奢侈品,非一般人家可以使用,主要功能就在于盛“三牲鱼腊”、“四时之和气”以供祖先晚上享用。当时最主要的货币还是天然海贝。
到春秋中期,出现了包金铜贝,也就是在普通铜币的外表包一层薄金,彰显其华贵,但流通并不多,更大的作用是养眼。战国时期黄金与铜铸币并行,但黄金似乎更多地用于离间和行贿。
秦始皇统一中国后,规定黄金为上币,一般用途是赏赐;铜币为下币,以秦国的铜钱为标准,外圆内方,这就是后来我们尊称为“孔方兄”的那个“兄长”。自此之后,铜钱的式样基本定型,历代相沿。铜钱作为我国历史上最重要的货币一直流通到清朝末年。外圆内方这种形状其实是为了浇铸方便,后来被我们赋予了很多象征性的神秘主义色彩,比如,圆形代表天,方孔代表地,追求天地之间的和谐,等等。也难怪,钱这个东西就是神秘。
西汉承袭秦制,黄金仍为法定货币,但主要集中于皇家手中,用途依然是赏赐和馈赠。东汉至隋朝,黄金愈加贵重,主要用途已经不是货币,和平期间则用来炫耀和礼佛,战乱时则被窖藏。这样,黄金就逐渐退出了市场流通。
……
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Yami Ships from United States

Shipping

  • United States

    Standard Shipping is $5.99 (Excluding Alaska & Hawaii). Free on orders of $49 or more.

    Local Express is $5.99 (Available in Parts of CA, NJ, MA & PA). Free on orders of $49 or more.

    2-Day Express (Includes Alaska & Hawaii) starts at $19.99.

Return Policy

You may return product within 30 days upon receiving the product. Items returned must be new in it's original packing, including the original invoice for the purchase. Customer return product at their own expense.

Sold by JD@CHINA

Service Guarantee

Yami Cross-store Free Shipping over $69
Yami 30-days Return

Yami-China FC

Yami has a consolidation warehouse in China which collects multiple sellers’ packages and combines to one order. Our Yami consolidation warehouse will directly ship the packages to your door. Cross-store free shipping over $69.

Return Policy

You may return products within 30 days upon receiving the products. Sellers take responsibilities for any wrong shipment or missing items. Packing needs to be unopened for any other than quality issues return. We promise to pack carefully, but because goods are taking long journey to destinations, simple damages to packaging may occur. Any damages not causing internal goods quality problems are not allowed to return. If you open the package and any quality problem is found, please contact customer service within three days after receipt of goods.

Shipping Information

Yami Consolidation Service Shipping Fee $9.99(Free shipping over $69)

Sellers in China will ship their orders within 1-2 business days once the order is placed. Packages are sent to our consolidation warehouse in China and combined there. Our Yami consolidation warehouse will directly ship the packages to you via UPS. The average time for UPS to ship from China to the United States is about 10 working days and it can be traced using the tracking number. Due to the pandemic, the delivery time may be delayed by about 5 days. The package needs to be signed by the guest. If the receipt is not signed, the customer shall bear the risk of loss of the package.

Sold by JD@CHINA

Service Guarantee

Free shipping over 69
Genuine guarantee

Shipping

Yami Consolidated Shipping $9.99(Free shipping over $69)


Seller will ship the orders within 1-2 business days. The logistics time limit is expected to be 7-15 working days. In case of customs clearance, the delivery time will be extended by 3-7 days. The final receipt date is subject to the information of the postal company.

Yami Points information

All items are excluding from any promotion or points events on Yamibuy.com

Return Policy

You may return product within 30 days upon receiving the product. Items returned must be new in it's original packing, including the original invoice for the purchase. Customer return product at their own expense.

Yami

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About the brand

Jingdong book

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About the brand

Jingdong book