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Jingdong book

流行的国际主义

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流行的国际主义

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1. 《福布斯》推荐75本经商必读书之一

2. 1996年,《流行的国际主义》大胆预言了亚洲金融危机,短短两年内重印了8次,总印数达120万。本书是诺贝尔奖得主保罗·克鲁格曼经典著作《流行的国际主义》全新修订本。

3. 《经济学人》 克鲁格曼可能是他所在年代有创造力的经济学家。

4. 《金融时报》“口号和辩论”“数据和模型”的大师。


Content Description

随着世界经济一体化的加深,各国在全球市场上展开激烈角逐。以增强“竞争力”为幌子施行贸易保护主义的理论学硕甚嚣尘上,被克鲁格曼谑称为“流行的国际主义”。尤其是此次金融危机期间,流行的国际主义再度主导了发达国家的舆论,其政府也出于政治需要,纷纷出台贸易保护政策。

克鲁格曼以缜密的经济学理论为基础,趣味横生地批驳了“流行的国际主义”。他认为,在世界经济这个复杂网络中,国与国之间贸易的目的在于从需求上补弱增强,而非弱肉强食。每个国家都能找到符合出口条件的产品,一国贸易的兴盛与他国生活水平的降低并没有直接关系。因此,欧美等发达国家以此为借口打压第三世界国家的贸易兴起毫无道理可言。而此次金融危机爆发后发达国际的各种贸易保护政策,更是无稽之谈。


Author Description

保罗·克鲁格曼,一个天才式的人物,诺贝尔经济学奖得主、普林斯顿大学经济学教授、畅销书作者、专栏作家。

克鲁格曼是新凯恩斯主义经济学派代表,主要研究领域包括国际贸易、国际金融、货币危机与汇率理论。1991年,他成为麻省理工学院经济系获得克拉克经济学奖的第五人。1994年他成功预言亚洲金融危机,2008年独享诺贝尔经济学奖。

克鲁格曼的文笔清晰流畅,作品深入浅出,不仅是专业研究人员的必读之作,更是普通大众的良师益友。在公众的眼中,他是一位不可多得的大众经济学家,被誉为“自凯恩斯以降,文章写得zui好的经济学家”。

主要作品有《现在终结萧条!》《一个自由主义者的良知》《萧条经济学的回归》《兜售繁荣》。


Catalogue

序言

第一篇零和世界

第一章竞争力:危险的偏执

第二章证明我的观点

第三章贸易、工作和工资(与罗伯特·劳伦斯合写)

第四章第三世界的增长损害了第一世界的繁荣吗?

第五章国际贸易冲突的幻象

第二篇好的和坏的经济理论

第六章美国竞争力的神话和现实

第七章经济外交往来

——评劳拉·泰森的《鹿死谁手?》

第八章大学生应该懂得哪些贸易知识

第三篇新兴世界

第九章挑战传统认识

第十章关于《北美自由贸易协定》令人不安的真相

第十一章亚洲奇迹的神话

第四篇技术和社会

第十二章技术的报复

第十三章世界经济的本地化

注释


Introduction

12月的某一天,当我在小石城听约翰·斯卡利(John Sculley)演讲的时候,我顿悟了。我的顿悟和演讲者所希望的根本不是一回事。斯卡利当时是苹果计算机公司的首席执行官,以谈论数字化未来时旁征博引的演讲而闻名,这些演讲不仅使他获得了“技术幻想主义者”的称号,而且使他有望成为新当选总统克林顿最受欢迎的商界领导人。因此,在克林顿的领导班子即将上任前,他们在小石城举行了一次经济峰会。会上,首先由麻省理工学院的罗伯特·索洛(Robert Solow)致开幕词,然后由斯卡利介绍全球经济的新情况。他将世界描述成这样一种情形:同企业一样,各个国家也在激烈地争夺全球市场。他的演讲博得了雷鸣般的掌声,甚至连克林顿也颔首赞同。

但我不这么认为,我自认为对国际贸易有所研究。我觉得斯卡利的话有点不知所云史蒂文·列维(Steven Levy)在关于Macintosh计算机的《疯狂的伟大》一书中也暗示,计算机界的许多人士赞同这种技术前景,虽然当时我并没有意识到这一点。。然而,最让人担忧的是,并非只有斯卡利存在这种误解。虽然在那次会议上一些了解情况、学识渊博的经济学家也做了演讲,但大部分演讲,尤其是最能迎合听众和政府的演讲,不是他们做的。也就是说,小石城的说教是拙劣地模仿国际经济学,它虽然听起来引人入胜,而且似乎精辟,却远远脱离了事实。事情显得有点奇怪。这里仿佛召开了一次高层会议,宣称会议聚集了世界闻名的人类心理学权威,站在讲台上做重要发言的是约翰·布雷萧(John Bradshow),他正在告诉我如何与我的内心世界沟通。当我思索这种现象时才发现,伪经济学在小石城流行绝非偶然。假设你是一个聪明的美国人,没有学过经济学,想了解时事,亦即你是那类收看《麦克尼尔-莱勒新闻时间》(McNeilLehrerNewshour),阅读《大西洋月刊》(The Atlantic)或《纽约书评》(The New York Review of Books)的人,你想专门研究国际上发生的经济事件。你会读哪些书呢?本书第五章列出了最近出版的7本书,第一本是莱斯特·瑟罗(Lester Thurow)影响深远的《世纪之争》(Head to Head)。这些书有两个共同特点:第一,它们对世界的看法大致与斯卡利一样,把国际贸易看成国家间“非赢即输”(瑟罗语)的竞争;第二,书中很少或没有经济学中关于国际贸易最基本的内容(例如,瑟罗的书在索引中根本没有“比较优势”这个词条)。

换言之,在公共演讲中,几个世纪以来人们对国际经济苦思冥想、孜孜以求、历尽千辛万苦——这个传统可以追溯到大卫·休谟(David Hume)的“贸易平衡论”——才学到的所有知识竟被斥之门外,代之以圆滑的、华而不实的说法。它们迎合了那些不做艰苦、细致的思考,又想表现得深思熟虑的人。这种华而不实的说法在公开的讨论中逐渐占了上风,一

个不读教科书而想了解世界贸易的人,可能从来不会意识到还有比这更好的观点。

在讨论世界贸易时,严肃的讨论被我所说的“流行的国际主义”所取代是谁的错呢?当然,在某种程度上,这是人类的本能所致:懒得动脑筋,即使那些明智、深刻的人也在所难免。这在一定程度上反映了经济学家的影响总体来说在下降:一代人之前,这个职业获得了很高的声誉,这在很大程度上应归功于人们推测凯恩斯主义的宏观经济政策是有效的。随着宏观经济学分崩离析成争吵不休的许多流派,经济学家的声誉受到了极大损害。另外,我们不应该忽视编辑的作用,他们通常唯流行国际主义者马首是瞻,而对那些能看懂国民账户、知道贸易收支也是储蓄和投资之差的人的深奥思想不屑一顾。事实上,很多著名的编辑自己就是流行国际主义者,例如《大西洋月刊》的詹姆斯·法洛斯(James Fallows)和《美国展望》(The American Prospect)的罗伯特·库特纳(Robert Kuttner)。他们有意以自己的刊物为讲台,进行讨伐知识分子的活动。

对于流行国际主义的兴起,国际经济学家应承担主要责任,他们没有尽最大努力与广大公众沟通。对于那些想了解世界经济的聪明的美国人,你会告诉他们读哪些书呢?虽然有几本不错的教材,但趣味性不强。也有些一流的经济学家,如哥伦比亚的贾格迪什·巴格瓦蒂(Jagdish Bhagwati),写专栏文章,在《新共和》(New Republic)上发表文章,在电视上露面。然而,专栏文章或者短文——且不说在电视上露面3分钟——并不适于阐述国际经济深奥的思想,因为国际经济中的任何一件事,都至少以两种方式影响其他事物。不管怎么说,在小石城过完主显节后,我终于明白,大多数撰写普及读物的经济学家都高估了公众的理解力。例如,他们设想读者肯定理解:第三世界国家在吸引大量资本流入的同时还拥有大量贸易盈余,在会计上是不可能的,因而未能与那些容易被貌似权威的人说服并且被他们牵着鼻子走的人保持联系。(据可靠消息,一位著名的流行国际主义者在谈及自己的职业时称:“幸好经济学家不会写作。”)

因此,当我离开小石城时,我有了一个新的认识:就连国际贸易最简单、最基本的真理也已被逐出公开讨论。在此后几星期美国经济学会举行的会议上,我提到了这个新的认识,那次演讲收入了本书第八章。可惜我选错了听众,事实上,一名记者甚至将那次演讲获得的

好评视为经济学家愚蠢和心胸狭窄的表现。在接受《纽约书评》的邀请,评论劳拉·丹德烈亚·泰森(Laura DAndrea Tyson)的《鹿死谁手?》一书时,我又一次试图表示我的担忧。在该评论中,除了溢美之词,我也提出要警惕把对国际贸易理论进行复杂的修订,与无知地摒弃任何系统的分析混为一谈的危险。然而,编辑拒绝发表这篇评论,告诉我:“你是在批评某位非常著名的人士。”(本书第七章是那篇未发表的评论,未予改动。)

后来我才意识到,只有采用一种新的写作形式,才能有效地反驳流行国际主义。我必须为非经济学家写一些清晰、有力甚至妙趣横生的文章,否则就无人肯读。这些文章不能有一点点经济学专业术语,因为它的读者是那些可能认为自己对经济学非常了解而对实际情况一

无所知的人。这些文章要完全自成体系,我必须从最基本的知识出发进行论证,不奢望读者掌握任何基础知识,也不迎合我这一行的权威。最后,文章的观点必须正确,不能在学术上哗众取宠,因为这些文章的宗旨是让世人看看什么是真正的经济学分析。假如我能写出这些文章,又该在哪里发表呢?1993年下半年,机会终于来了。《外交》杂志的执行编辑邀请我对当时争论激烈的《北美自由贸易协定》写篇文章(见本书第十章)。我建议写两篇:一篇关于《北美自由贸易协定》,另一篇关于竞争力。大约与此同时,《科学美国人》《科学美国人》(Scientific American),中文版为《环球科学》。——译者注请我就国际贸易写篇文章。不久,《哈佛商业评论》(Harvard Business Review)也向我约稿。从那以后,好事接踵而至。可见,针对大众的严肃的国际经济学读物还是有读者的。


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