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中青年经济学家文库:中国新型城镇化下的消费增长动力研究

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中青年经济学家文库:中国新型城镇化下的消费增长动力研究

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《中青年经济学家文库:中国新型城镇化下的消费增长动力研究》在研究方法上,以定性分析为主,将实证定量分析与规范定性分析相结合,并加以比较分析法,跨学科的研究方法。全书分为理论、实证、实践、政策和建议四大部分,共7章,具体内容如下:
第1章导论。指出本课题的研究背景和研究意义;对重要概念和范畴进行阐释;简单介绍《中青年经济学家文库:中国新型城镇化下的消费增长动力研究》的结构和主要内容、研究方法、特色和创新。
第2章文献综述。分别从与本课题相关的国内外城镇化以及新型城镇化理论研究、国内外消费理论研究、国内外城镇化与消费增长关系研究三个层面,对国内外相关的主要文献进行综述和评点。
第3章新型城镇化拉动消费增长的理论基础。首先阐释了政治经济学框架下的新型城镇化的概念与内涵特征,指出新型城镇化和传统城镇化的区别;其次,分析了传统城镇化和新型城镇化两种不同发展阶段对消费增长的影响;再次,不同角度分析了消费增长对城镇化的反推动作用。
第4章消费增长与城镇化关系的实证分析。从居民消费支出的增加引起的消费水平的提高和消费结构的变化两个方面,对消费增长与城镇化之间的协整关系和Granger因果动态关系进行实证分析。
第5章国外城镇化拉动消费增长的经验教训。经验总结方面,如日本、美国、英国、德国等发达国家的城镇化对消费增长的推动。教训总结方面,如巴西、印度等发展中的人口大国出现的城市化拉动消费增长效果不明显的现象。
第6章我国城镇化促进消费增长动力不足的表现和原因。从居民消费和城镇化建设两个方面分析持续增长动力不足的表现,并从宏观政府层面、中观城镇化层面、微观居民层面探究其动力不足的诸多原因。
第7章新型城镇化拉动消费增长的思路建议。从微观、中观、宏观三个层面,提出了两种思路:消费增长目标下的新型城镇化路径选择,以及新型城镇化质量提高下的消费增长途径。
Author Description

胡若痴,女,中国人民大学经济学博士、财政部财政科学研究所博士后,现对外经济贸易大学国际经济研究院副教授、副研究员,研究生导师。主要研究领域为社会主义市场经济、消费经济、城市经济。曾在国家级权威报刊和CSSCI来源期刊、北大核心期刊等发表论文五十余篇;其中多篇被其它期刊网站转载。主编或参编多部“t五”、“十一五”、“十二五”国家级规划教材。主持或参与国家社会科学基金、教育部人文社会科学基金、北京市哲学社会科学基金、商务部、农业部、财政部等参项国家级、省部级课题的研究工作。
Catalogue

第1章 导论
1.1 研究背景
1.1.1 我国拉动经济增长的主要动力变动
1.1.2 我国消费需求不足的现状
1.1.3 新型城镇化道路的探索
1.2 研究意义
1.2.1 理论意义
1.2.2 现实意义
1.3 研究目标与研究方法
1.3.1 本课题的研究目标
1.3.2 研究方法
1.4 研究结构和主要内容一、
1.5 特色和创新

第2章 文献综述
2.1 关于消费增长理论的研究
2.1.1 国外关于消费增长理论的确究
2.1.2 我国关于消费理论的研究
2.2 关于城镇化理论的研究
2.2.1 国外关于城镇化的研究
2.2.2 我国关于新型城镇化的研究
2.3 关于消费增长与城镇化的研究
2.3.1 国外关于城镇化与消费增长的研究
2.3.2 国内关于诮费增长与城镇化的研究

第3章 新型城镇化拉动消费增长的理论基础
3.1 政治经济学框架下的新型城镇化概念与
内涵特征
3.1.1 关于新型城镇化与有中国特色城镇化的提法之争
3.1.2 政治经济学框架下的新型城镇化的内涵特征
3.1.3 新型城镇化和传统城镇化韵区别
3.2 消费增长与城镇化的关系
3.2.1 城镇化消费增长的影响
3.2.2 消费增长对城镇化的推动作用

第4章 消费增长与城镇化关系的实证分析
4.1 分析方法
4.1.1 格兰杰(Granger)因果关系和平稳性
4.1.2 协整
4.1.3 误差修正模型(ECM)
4.2 居民消费水平和城镇化的关系的实证分析
4.2.1 居民消费水平和城镇化的统计描述
4.2.2 序列平稳性的单位根检验
4.2.3 协整分析
4.2.4 误差修正模型(ECM)
4.2.5 因果关系检验
4.3 居民消费结构和城镇化的关系的实证分析
4.3.1 居民消费结构和城镇化的统计描述
4.3.2 序列平稳性的单位根检验
……

第5章 国外城市化拉动消费增长的经验教训
第6章 我国城镇化促进消费增长动力不足的表现和原因
第7章 新型城镇化拉动消费增长的思路建议
参考文献
Book Abstract

《中青年经济学家文库:中国新型城镇化下的消费增长动力研究》:
产业基础是工业,尤其是传统工业化的发展,注重机械化和自动化,属高消耗、高成本、低产出、忽视环境污染型的粗放型经济,容易出现较严重的失业问题;并且城镇化滞后于工业化的发展。而新型城镇化的产业基础是新型工业化,尤其是以服务业为主导的第三产业的发展,注重工业化与信息化并举,注意处理好资本技术密集型与劳动密集型产业的关系、高新技术产业和传统产业的关系,能较好地扩大和保障就业,属低消耗、低成本、高产出、环境污染少的集约型经济;并且新型城镇化进程与新型工业化进程同步,共同协调发展。另外,传统城镇化中城乡产业绝对分离、形成城市大工业和农村小农经济分割格局,且三大产业的产业链区分明显、互不衔接。而新型城镇化中城乡产业相互关联,城乡作为区域共同体进行合理分工,且三大产业的产业链界限不分明、相互渗透并相互促进发展,共同获得“发展红利”,如农村产业经济中出现观光农业,农村旅游业等农业现代化模式等。
三是两种发展道路的指导思想和出发点、目的不同。传统城镇化的指导思想是追求城市经济增长、城市数量与人口数量的增加以及城市土地面积和区域的增加;其出发点、立足点和目的都是人的一切欲望满足,是城市的发展和城市利益的实现,而新型城镇化的指导思想是科学发展观和可持续发展观;其出发点、立足点和目的是人的全面发展,是城乡、区域协同发展,人口、资源等各要素和环境协调发展。
四是两种发展道路的动力机制不同。我国传统城镇化的动力机制主要是以政府为主导、以公有经济为基础,由政府发动和包办实施的自上而下的城镇化,制约了工业化的进程、阻碍了城乡要素的流动,城镇化进程很缓慢;另外,传统城镇化主要靠区域内的诸如自然资源条件、生产力水平、地理位置、区域内的政府、企业等各种自然和人文因素组成的内生型动力机制推动。新型城镇化的动力机制是市场为主导、政府引导为辅,由公有经济、民营经济等社会力量共同推动的自下而上的城镇化,国家颁布了鼓励城镇化发展的一系列政策和举措,尤其是党的十五届五中、六中全会,提出了将城镇化作为促进经济结构调整和国民经济健康持续发展的重要战略以后,使城镇化进程迅速提升;而且,新型城镇化在靠内生型动力机制推动的基础上,还会结合实际情况,运用区域外的诸如引进区域外投资、宏观政策、建设重大工程项目、变更行政中心和行政区划等各种因素组成的外生型动力机制来推动。
五是两种发展道路的要素流动不同。传统城镇化的要素流动一般是单向流动,即人口、资源、信息、货币、技术等要素向城市聚集,城市的极化效应被强化,城镇化表现为集聚的单一特征,乡村经济发展能力被逐步削弱;而新型城镇化的要素实现了双向流动,城市的涓滴效应被强化,城镇化表现为集聚和扩散并举的特征。
六是两种发展道路产生的效应不同,包括环境效应、社会效应、经济效应的不同。传统城镇化所产生的社会效应表现为城乡二元结构加剧、贫富悬殊和区域差异逐渐加大,形成农村和城市的社会对立;环境效应表现为污染问题在城市集中、污染物向农村转移,生态系统遭到破坏、城市生存空间日益狭窄;经济效益表现为财富分布空间不平衡。而新型城镇化所产生的社会效益表现为城乡二元结构逐渐消除,贫富差距和区域差异日益缩小.最终实现城乡一体、共同富裕;环境效应表现为统一规划城乡环境、绿色城市和绿色家园逐步建立,实现生态文明;经济效益表现为财富的空间均衡分布。
七是两种发展道路的空间结构和区域联系不同。传统城镇化的空间结构是功能区过于集中的内向式,但同时又是城区范围摊大饼式的、外向扩散型结构,导致较严重的城市病出现;并且城际间各自独立、缺乏联系,不同规模城市却结构雷同、易形成恶性竞争。而新型城镇化在空间结构上寻求时间和空间压缩能力的提高,力求各种要素配置优化能力的提高和成本的节约,同时功能区又因区域均衡发展需求和物质、能量、信息等要素畅通流动要求而有所分散,以克服城镇化的产生;并且大中小城市协调建构,形成城际联
……

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Jingdong book