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安倍经济学的妄想

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安倍经济学究竟为日本经济带来了什么?它是否是日本进入下一个失去的十年的窗口?《失去的二十年》作者池田信夫全景解读

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Content Description

《安倍经济学的妄想》旗帜鲜明地批判了安倍的量化宽松政策,认为这只是一时打鸡血的“安慰剂”,不能解决日本经济的现实问题。逐条地批判了安倍经济政策的三驾马车:

大胆的金融政策:日元大幅贬值,能源进口价格飙升,依赖能源进口的日本将陷入严重的物价上涨。

机动的财政政策:推高利率,让日本的财政体系难以为继,最终摧毁国债泡沫。

唤醒民间投资的增长战略:雷声大雨点小,没有实质性的内容,无法唤醒实体经济的复苏。

因而安倍经济政策带来的只是股价的短暂上升,不过是虚妄的回光返照。

最后,作者提出了自己对于日本经济走出困境的中肯建议。

Author Description

池田信夫 ,

股份公司Agora研究所所长,SBI大学院大学客座教授。

1953年生于京都,东京大学经济学部毕业后加入NHK,1993年离开NHK,先后任国际大学GLOCOM教授、经济产业研究所高级研究员。庆应义塾大学学术博士。

著有《何为创新》《“空气”的结构》等书,并与他人合著《“日本史”的终结》。

著有日本经济领域的畅销书《失去的二十年》。

Catalogue

作者简介
译者序
序言
第1章安倍经济学是一剂安慰剂 / 1
让日元贬值就等于是“卖日本” / 2
使股指上涨、下跌的主力是海外资金 / 5
不负责任的通胀政策 / 8
日元贬值是好事么 / 10
输入型通胀的风险 / 12
不会再回到贸易立国的老路上去 / 14
通缩有何弊端 / 16
把不景气与通缩搞混的人们 / 19
是否存在“通胀缺口” / 22
日本银行是否造成了尔必达的倒闭 / 25
专栏ECONOMIX-1:日美的量化宽松没有效果 / 27
第2章黑田火箭炮的反喷 / 31
“不同层次的量化宽松”造成的冲击 / 32
非常规金融政策的风险 / 35
刹车油门一起踩 / 37
央行无法对长期利率进行调控 / 39
央行无法对于“预期”进行调控 / 42
时间轴政策之创举 / 44
不留退路的量化宽松 / 47
金融政策会议的大本营发表 / 48
黑田将军的“英帕尔战役” / 51
本来的目的是财政融资 / 53
为什么中央银行要保证其独立性 / 55
专栏ECONOMIX-2:克鲁格曼的“流动性陷阱” / 57
第3章通缩的全球化 / 61
货币数量说的亡灵 / 62
再通胀教派 / 66
僵尸经济学 / 69
股价高涨不会引发通胀 / 73
单凭金融政策无法刺激就业 / 75
通缩的原因在于工资的下降 / 78
全球化的竞争压力迫使工资水平下降 / 80
论资排辈制度的终结 / 84
专栏ECONOMIX-3:负利率 87
第4章金融危机引发财政危机 / 89
不同层次上的量化宽松带来的尾端风险 / 90
“国债泡沫”破灭时 / 92
利率风险逐渐显现 / 94
不增税能否实现财政再建 / 96
财政通胀的风险 / 100
安倍首相的道德风险 / 102
抑制小的波动会招致极大的风险 / 104
民主主义衍生的不对称性 / 106
“安乐死”还是恶性通胀 / 109
马克思的预言 / 111
20世纪80年代的泡沫经济的教训 / 114
泡沫还会再现么 / 118
专栏ECONOMIX-4:尾端风险与期权性 / 122
第5章雇佣制度改革远比发展战略重要 / 127
空洞的经济增长战略 / 128
如何应对劳动人口的减少 / 131
雇佣失衡导致通缩 / 134
消除雇佣失衡的两个方法 / 136
日本企业全都是“血汗工厂” / 138
让劳动者摆脱企业自立 / 141
为精英的横向移动创造条件 / 144
专栏ECONOMIX-5:劳动生产率差异性通缩 / 147
第6章日本经济的复苏究竟需要什么 / 150
扫清能源供给的障碍 / 151
储蓄过剩是一种慢性病 / 154
日式经营者资本主义的极限 / 156
企业的新陈代谢不足 / 159
重要的是人力资源 / 162
企业退化导致大学退化 / 165
经济增长战略的TPP / 169
撤销关税是为了让农业“转守为攻” / 171
人口必须要向大城市集中 / 173
从主权国家到城邦国家的转变 / 177
专栏ECONOMIX-6:北欧模式是否值得借鉴 / 180

Book Abstract

《安倍经济学的妄想》:
那么通缩到底有什么弊端呢?所谓的通缩,就是指“物价不断下跌的现象”,日本到底是否已经出现通缩了呢? 从图1.6中我们可以看出,世界各国都出现了物价增长率下降的情况,即反通胀。通胀目标一般指的是为平抑物价而制定的目标,日本近年来的通胀率以每年0.1%的速度递减,可以说是比较稳定。那么人为地制造通胀,到底是为什么呢? 认为“之所以不景气,就是因为通缩”的人,以为只要制造通胀就能恢复繁荣。
从图1.6中可以看出通胀最严重的是英国,虽然通胀率接近3%,但其失业率为7.8%,这几乎是日本的两倍。有人认为“英国制定了2%的通胀目标,所以经济才顺风顺水”,那么就让这些人去问一下英国人,“物价和失业率都高过日本,你们幸福么?” 战后,几乎看不到因为物价水平下降而引发的通缩了。那是因为经济发展了,总需求超过了总供给。
但是当总需求小于总供给时,就有可能导致通缩。从图1—6可以看出,即使是欧美各国,物价上涨的现象也有所缓和。 与人们想象的恰好相反,由于通缩而导致经济萧条的情况是少之又少。日本的年通缩率不到1%,发展缓慢且呈常态化,区一切又都是在人们的预料之中的,并没有陷入所谓的“通缩旋涡”。通缩只是经济不景气的结果,而并非其原因,所以说为了“摆脱通缩”而制定的政策简直是毫无意义。 很长一段时间以来,通缩与经济不景气并存,人们就误以为通缩与经济不景气之间的关系是因果关系,以为是“通缩直凄导致了经济萧条”。
如果物价水平下降,工资水平不变的话,消费者就会有更多实惠。比如说一条6 000日元的牛仔裤,如果3 000日元就可以买到的话,那么同等收入的条件下可以买两条,由于通缩导致实质上资产的增加从而产生“庇古效应”,消费也会增加。事实上,参看GDP(国内生产总值)的构成,我们可以发现,处于通缩状态的2l世纪最初lO年,日本的个人消费呈增长的态势。通缩对于消费者而言,是非常有利的。
对经营者来说,如果名义销售额下滑,而名义工资不变的话,就会影响企业的收益。就长期来说,这种状况会通过工资的下行调整来缓解(名义工资的下调)。名义债务也一样,通缩时实际债务会增加,同时企业负担变重,但可以通过还旧借新来缓解这一状况,如今就连住房贷款也是1%~2%的超低利率了。
通缩对实体经济产生影响原因是短期存款利率接近于零时产生的流动性陷阱(参看ECONOMIx一2),但其原因在于资金需求的贫乏,而通缩只是其最终结果。存款利率,可以说就是钱的价格,变成零的话,就说明对货币的需求是零。
用香蕉来代替货币就比较容易理解了,香蕉200日元卖不出去,降到100日元就有人买了,对香蕉有需求的人都买了以后,就又卖不出去了,于是又降到了0日元,卖到一定程度以后,就又没有人买了。
零利率就是这种情况。价格为零还是卖不出去的话,是由于绝对供给过剩,就算进再多的货,一样是没有人买。
……
Introduction

2013年的参议院选举以自民、公明两执政党的轻松取胜而告终,持续已久的“较劲国会”亦随之终结。

其中最大的功臣应该算是安倍晋三首相了,是他的新型经济政策使日本经济重获生机。很多人寄希望于他所说的“让日本银行的印钞机日夜不停永无休止地运转下去”,希望借此引发通胀,日本经济也会因此发生戏剧性的转机。

此时正值日本银行总裁白川方明的任期已满,安倍便任命积极主张货币量化宽松的黑田东彦(原财务官)为日本银行的总裁,他提出的“用两年时间使货币基数翻倍,从而实现2%的通胀目标”,确实有很大的心理效应。

股价从2012年11月众议院解散后就开始暴涨,到2013年5月22日,日经平均指数涨到15 627点,半年内上涨了近8成,美元对日元的汇率超过了1∶100,不动产等资产的价格也开始上涨。出口企业的业绩大幅改善,2013年第一季度的实际增长率为4.1%。

如果日本能够就此振作起来的话,的确是不错,但是光靠调动情绪,是无论如何也不会长久的。5月下旬日经平均指数暴跌至12 000点,其后便是时涨时跌,阴晴不定。另一方面,倒是日元对美元的汇率维持在1美元兑100日元的基础上缓慢贬值。但是,第一季度通缩状态依然持续,消费者物价指数(生鲜食品、能源价格除外)下降了0.4%。

安倍如此怪异的经济政策被媒体戏称为“安倍经济学”,这大概是在模仿20世纪80年代美国总统里根的经济政策被叫作“里根经济学”这一典故吧。无论是里根经济学还是安倍经济学,都使用了下面的“三板斧”:① 大胆的金融政策;② 灵活的财政政策;③ 吸引民间资金的发展战略。

头一板斧的金融政策与以往的政权有较大的区别。黑田总裁制定了“大量买入国债等风险资产,从而使长期利率走低”这一方针,另一方面却又提出了“两年后实现通胀率达到2%”这一与前面方针互相矛盾的目标,其结果就是使长期利率上涨,进而导致市场陷入混乱。

安倍组阁不足一年,有些事情尚无法定论,但可以肯定的是,安倍与黑田说的那些豪言壮语,像“日本银行应该做的事情全都没有做”“量化宽松的方法数不胜数”之类的,除了打击了白川前总裁以外,好像并未见到什么出奇的效果。

里根经济学也因为当初大幅降低税收而致使财政赤字的规模进一步扩大,利率上涨而导致大量人口失业而饱受诟病,其结果是从“大政府”路线,转向政府不干预民间的经济活动,从而使美国的经济得以重建。20世纪90年代,美国的IT产业足以引领世界。里根经济学与同时期的英国首相撒切尔夫人实施的经济政策,可以说是改变了历史。

那么,安倍经济学是否拥有改变历史的力量呢。

就现阶段来说,让垂头丧气的日本人精神为之一振,这是好事,但是除了心理效应以外,尚看不出安倍经济政策有任何可以从本质上改善日本经济的征兆。作为“第二板斧”的财政政策的作用,只不过是通过原有大力发展公共事业政策,使财政赤字进一步扩大罢了,而作为“第三板斧”的发展战略却是没有任何实质性内容。

由于宏观经济过于复杂且专业,一般的公司职员恐怕很难提得起兴趣,但本书所述内容,基本上都是常识性的东西(比较专业的问题或是与主题无关的内容会在各章末的ECONOMIX专栏中有所阐述),大部分都是大学经济学系里教的一般性经济学理论,数据也都是互联网上公布的数据。

金融政策方面的内容有些比较专业,在我主办的网站Agora中有许多金融、财政方面的专家,可以与他们探讨交流。在各种研讨会上也有许多自称“再通胀派”的人士,我在听取了他们的意见以后,也在网站上介绍了他们的观点,并指出了其问题所在。在日本以外的国家几乎找不到与他们相类似的观点,我们称之为“加拉帕戈斯经济学”,他们的主张,无论是从理论还是从实践方面,都存在着很大的漏洞。

本书是基于这半年来我主办网站的专栏与博客的内容经过大幅修改,执笔之际再经过Agora的成员池尾和人、小幡绩、小黑一正等人的指点编写而成。此外,还要感谢《东洋经济新报》报社的中里有吾在百忙之中抽出时间,使本书得以顺利出版。希望本书能够帮助迷失在混乱的日本经济中的读者拨开迷雾。

池田信夫

2013年7月



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Jingdong book

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About the brand

Jingdong book