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Jingdong book

中国经济这些年 关乎你财富的八件事

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这些年,中国经济到底发生了哪些事情?

聚焦物价、债务、税负、汇率、房产等热点,透过经济运行水面上八分之一表象,深挖水面下被忽略的八分之七,解读中国经济这些年关乎百姓财富的内、外“帐”。


Content Description

百姓开门七件事——“柴米油盐酱醋茶”,件件都是花钱的事。吃穿住行要花钱,收入不够要借钱,钱没花完要存钱,享受公共服务要缴钱、与老外打交道要兑钱……

本书沿着“钱”这条主线,勾勒出中国经济这些年与百姓财富生活息息相关的八个故事:价事、钱事、债事、税事、汇事、房事、城事和策事。通过对物价变动、货币流通、债务危机、税收改革、人民币国际化、房价上涨、宏观调控的具体分析和解读,描述这些年我们的经济发展中所遇到的危机与挑战,为思考未来财富生活新的增长点提供新颖视角。


Author Description

张涛,笔名简容、中国卒子。毕业于财政部财政科学研究所,现就职于中国建设银行总行。金融四十人(CF40)青年论坛成员、sohu财经年度经济学家成员、经济观察报经济学家调查组成员,路透中文网、FT中文网、财新网、财经网、澎湃、搜狐财经、和讯财经网、《中国证券报》、《上海证券报》、《经济观察报》、《21世纪经济报道》、《东方早报》专栏作家和经济评论员。已经公开发表的评论和研究数百余篇,曾出版《思考中国——美元逻辑下的中国角色》。


Comments

张涛博士对物价、债务、税负、汇率、金融环境、房地产、城镇化、宏观政策选择等热点问题分析,正是本着理论联系实际、历史与逻辑统一的原则,为我们进一步理解中国经济运行内涵提供了有益参考,其分析有很多不同于流行观点之处,他对于中国经济运行的一些似是而非概念的厘清、规律的重新解读也颇具新意,为我们思考中国经济的未来发展,提供不少新的视角,对于当前的政策实践也具有较强的现实意义。

——王洪章 中国建设银行股份有限公司董事长

我国经济总量世界第二,但人均收入却仅为发达国家的七分之一;城市化率还不到55%,但却出现了“民工慌”和“鬼城”;国民储蓄率极高的情况下,负债率却成为一个问题……如何读懂中国是个巨大的挑战。张涛博士在运用正统经济学分析中国现实经济问题并提出建设性政策建议方面表现出色。本书是所有关注中国经济人士的必读之书。

——屈宏斌 汇丰银行大中华区首席经济学家

经济学家常说好书的标志是“深入浅出”。但真正做到却不容易。张涛博士这本《中国经济这些年:关乎你财富的八件事》我以为是做到了。这本书显示出作者深厚的经济学功底和和对现实宏观经济和发展问题的敏锐观察,并把两者很好地结合起来。例如,作者运用中国央行在2010年开始公布的社会融资总量数据,分析2013年两次“钱荒”的悖论,揭示了以影子银行为代表的非传统类融资在中国经济运行中的重大作用。这对于我们理解2015年6月中到7月初的股市危机也颇有启发。

——崔之元 清华大学公共管理学院教授

Catalogue

前言

致谢

中国价事

通货膨胀真的远去了吗?

为什么我们的吃穿住行是这样的?

二师兄的肉比师傅的贵

被留下的另一半任务

中国钱事

“不差钱”的中国

“脱媒”下的“不差钱”

不差钱的环境下,钱为什么反而更贵了?

出来混,迟早都要还

事外话:“钱荒”的因果

中国债事

1. 中国债务的三个比例关系

2. 虱子多了不咬人吗?

3. 南橘北枳

4. 化债需用混合运算

事外话:债务置换背后的故事

中国税事

税收修补术

水涨船高

中央和地方的草料博弈

鸟笼思维

事外话:减税!全面减税!

中国汇事

正在进行的第三次突围战

人民币汇改的快慢之争

人民币的日元之鉴

人民币国际化的路线图

事外话:人民币自由化,行百里者半九十

中国房事

上下不得的房子问题

左右摇摆的房政

一生只能参与一次的周期

毒药还是良剂

事外话:人口红利之后,消费能成为主引擎吗?

中国城事

“葫芦难题”逼“流民落脚”

人粮矛盾下的“市民返乡”

人口红利的秘密是“起早贪黑”

两个方式的断裂

事外话:中国经济转型的显微镜观察

中国策事

央行的逻辑

财政和货币的“连裆裤”

没有财政的“四两”,何来货币的“千斤”

结构调整的引导者究竟是谁?

事外话:“珍珑棋局”

后记

Book Abstract

二师兄的肉比师傅的贵

在上篇中,笔者和大家分析了过去的十余年间,我们在吃、穿、住、行四个方面的物价变化情况及其背后的原因。由于在我们的CPI篮子构成中,食品价格的权重占到30%以上,所以当我们对于未来物价水平作预测时(物价预测始终是宏观层面的调控、微观层面的投资等最为重要的考量因素之一),对于食品价格的预判就显得格外重要。而观察近年来食品价格的变化,猪肉价格恐怕最让人印象深刻。说到此,笔者不禁想起了2008年广为流传的一个段子,当时针对猪肉价格的快速大幅上涨,坊间流传着一则笑话——有一天,沙僧火急火燎地对孙悟空说:“大师兄,大师兄,不好了,现在二师兄的肉都比师傅的贵了!”

其实,如果按照5%的涨幅为标准来划分(因为从2001年至今,CPI涨幅的历史均值是2.5%,5%就是历史均值的2倍),21世纪以来我们大致经历了三次物价水平的快速增长,用经济学的语言讲就是经历了三次明显的通货膨胀。而在这三次通货膨胀当中,我们总能看到猪肉价格的影子。例如,2004年8月份CPI涨幅升至5.3%,同月猪肉价格涨幅超过25%;2008年第一季度,CPI涨幅接近9%,同期猪肉价格涨幅接近70%;2011年7月,CPI涨幅升至5.3%,同月猪肉价格涨幅接近60%。可见在我们的“价事”当中,确实存在“猪肉周期”。

不知大家是否还记得,就在我们热议“二师兄肉贵”期间,还经历了“豆你玩”“姜你军”“蒜你狠”“糖高宗”“盐王爷”……但为什么只有猪肉出现了周期性的变化?

说到其中原因,笔者先给大家看几个数据:

第一个数据就是,2003年中国人均GDP刚刚突破1000美元,而到2006年就已突破了2000美元,而按照国际通行的标准,中国经济已经从人均GDP 2000美元以下的经济起飞阶段迈入2000~10000美元的加速发展阶段。目前中国人均GDP已经接近8000美元,可见中国经济在加速发展阶段所花的时间较发达国家的历史大大缩短了,相应中国人的膳食结构也出现了史无前例的变化。例如,国家统计局数据显示,2012年中国城镇居民人均粮食年消费量较2000年减少了4公斤,同时猪肉的年消费量增加了5公斤、水产品和鲜奶均增加了4公斤;同期农村居民的人均粮食年消费量较2000年减少了86公斤,同时肉禽的年消费量增加了5公斤、水产品和鲜奶分别增加了1公斤和4公斤。

第二个数据则是,以2012年的数据为例,城市居民人均粮食年消费量是农村的一半(城市是79公斤,农村是164公斤),但城市居民猪肉的人均年消费量是农村的15倍(城市是22公斤,农村是15公斤)。

仅此两个数据已经说明,城里人的膳食结构明显要好于乡下。而在过去十余年间,我们的城镇化率提高了多少?提高了18%。换句话,就是大约有近3亿的乡下人变成了城里人。

若大家觉得上面的数据看着有些晕,那么笔者归纳一下,这两组数据实际上就是说:从纵向看,无论是城里人,还是乡下人,近十余年来我们吃得越来越好,粮食吃得少了,肉、鱼、奶吃得多了。从横向看,吃得好的人群比重还在不断提高。

好了,说到这儿,咱们回过头来说说,为什么只有“二师兄的肉”形成了周期?蔬菜、鲜果类的食品在CPI中的权重和猪肉是一样的,由于生产周期短,基本多追一把肥、多撒一把种、多支一座大棚,就能很快把此类食品的供给增加出来,虽然这一类食品受季节性影响较大,但大家千万别忘了笔者在前面说过的,“行”方面的改善是这些年咱们“价事”中的一大亮点,因此便捷、覆盖面广的交通网络就可以很好地消除季节性的影响。但是猪肉却不行,因为从能繁育小猪的母猪入栏,到幼猪出生,最后到鲜猪肉上市,期间大致需要50个月,也就是说对于猪肉而言,从增加供给到最终显效,中间存有一个时滞。

也正是由于这50个月的时滞,产生了猪肉价格的周期性波动,有关此点还有一个经济学的经典理论与之对应——蛛网理论。笔者在这里把这个理论简单翻译一下:当猪肉价格上涨后,养殖户开始惜售存栏猪,同时增加补栏数(即依据当期的价格决定后期的供给量),而供给的增加最终会导致猪肉价格下跌,相应的养殖户开始减少供给,直至猪肉价格重新上升,如此不断循环反复,所以猪肉价格呈现出周期性的变化——由于从增加供给到最终实现供给存在较长时滞,导致在当期价格决定后期供给的决策机制下,出现供需由均衡到不均衡再到均衡的循环。

......

穿插这一段美国的小故事,笔者无非是想说,未来“二师兄肉贵”的问题是否还会重演呢?目前猪肉的平均价格在每公斤23元左右,已经持续四年多低于上一次的价格高点(2011年9月猪肉的平均价格在每公斤30元左右)。这表明在经过十余年间的三次大波动之后,相当一部分散养户已经被淘汰出局,规模化养殖户占比不断提高,那么此前存在的“蛛网理论”的实际影响已经相当弱化了,所以即便是猪肉价格已经开始进入回升期,“二师兄的肉”也很难比师傅的贵了。

……

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Jingdong book