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Jingdong book

财经关键词系列①·关键词里看中国:财经热词背后的中国经济真相

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如果从读者的角度观察,我们可以理解您在阅读本书时的一个困惑,那就是我们所载入的新闻事件,其实都已经成为了“旧闻”。所以,单从时效性上讲,您或许会觉得自己仿佛是在阅读历史,虽然这些历史事件发生的时间并不久远。而这一问题也恰恰是我们撰文成书时的最大困惑,那就是:读者究竟需要阅读什么样的内容?一些已经发生过的旧闻,是否还能对读者具有足够的吸引力?
Catalogue

推荐序一 财经评论不应只会“骂人”/孙立坚
推荐序二 捕捉火热时代的财经关键词/连平
自 序

第一篇 放眼全球,把脉经济格局
第一章 给你一双看懂世界的眼睛
信心逻辑/宽松游戏/悬崖起舞/区域经济/自我修复

第二章 再见,持续高增长时代
经济寒冬/钱从何来/循序渐进/刮骨疗毒/微弱复苏/转型时机

第三章 改革是中国最大的红利
改革红利/金融动力/新城镇化/积改扩容/国地合并

第二篇 解读资讯,诊断投资市场
第四章 股市病了,还有谁敢出手
校花难摘/急病慢医/股市信心/风险控制/丁蟹效应

第五章 理财的馅饼居然是个陷阱
正负利率/银行改革/信用陷阱/基金变革/梦醒时分/火腿理财/信托骗局

第六章 创造真正有投资价值的市场
药看疗效/退市时代/市场话语/主席更替/低调挂牌/回归本源

第三篇 探索真相,剖析行业热点
第七章 iPhone不仅仅是一部手机
苹果难啃/专利大战/科技瓶颈/日企困境/十年新低

第八章 电商大战,笑到最后才算赢
乱世血拼/电商大战/价格噱头/光棍疯狂/电商对赌/在“节”难逃

第九章 白酒的胜利,你永远学不会
暴利面孔/茅台之谜/国酒之争/信誉透支/塑化风波/保价流产/行业拐点

第十章 谁动了大佬们的奶酪?
武钢养猪/石油亏损/光伏困局/家电黑榜/电信格局/央企红利

第四篇 洞察世事,关注社会民生
第十一章 楼市,那是一座围城
诺奖买房/央企地王/楼市出路/房奴松绑/调控加码/地产怪圈

第十二章 如此生活,你幸福吗?
油价超美/蔬菜涨跌/天价物流/养老并轨/医改难题

Book Abstract

一般来说,在金融市场中,大家提到的银行、证券、保险三大巨头都是要有专门的监管机构的。而信托行业则没有直接的监管机构,只能靠银监会来进行监管。事实上,信托行业是最近几年金融行业真正的隐形冠军,赚了很多钱。
信托业很多人的收入远比当年的券商界人士高得多。如果信托行业的人去参加《非诚勿扰》,估计那24盏灯肯定全都亮着。
但是,仔细观察会发现,信托行业的疯狂发展是社会资金收益率整体偏低造成的。信托行业的整个资金规模远远超过基金行业,仅仅落后于保险行业。信托行业的投资越来越多、越来越复杂,连火腿也有理财产品了,从之前的红酒、房地产甚至到如今的墓地等产品,信托产品的种类越来越多,投资方向越来越广泛,行业整顿已经呼之欲出。
据说,2012年10月,监管部门召集了部分在该年度大量发行资金池类产品的信托公司,要求它们规范此类产品。这一举动给近年来在信托业界迅速发展的资金池类信托产品敲响了警钟。
资金池是什么概念呢?“资金池”最早是由跨国公司的财务公司与国际银行联手开发,以统一调拨集团全球资金为目的的现金管理手段。之后逐渐被金融机构发展成为将资金用于投资谋利的资产管理方式。银行理财池、基金都是典型的代表。不过随着银行理财资金池屡屡受到诟病,在银行信托途径受阻、资本市场沉寂、市场利率下行等因素的共同作用下,理财无门的资金催生了信托版本的资金池的大量涌现。
信托公司以前做投资项目是这样的一个流程,先拿出一个项目介绍书,介绍这个项目内容是什么、投资方向在哪里、项目本身盈利有多少等等,最后劝说客户购买。后来,信托公司发现种先有项目然后再去找资金的方式,速度很慢、效率很低、效果不好,于是他们就想了一招,就叫作资金池。
资金池就是不出示具体项目,只是告诉客户,信托公司要募资,客户可以投资,当个几亿、几十亿的资金进来之后,他们就可以做一个资金池,之后再去找投资项目。可见,前后两种投资方法的顺序整个是颠倒的。后一种模式出现以后,马上在业界引发了很大的争论,有人称之为“庞氏骗局”。
而所谓的“庞氏骗局”中的“庞氏”就是指查尔斯·庞齐。他是意大利裔的美国人,他发明了一种金融游戏。什么游戏呢?据说他当时创造了一家子虚乌有的公司,这家公司根本就不存在。他说这公司的盈利能力很强,然后忽悠人们来投资,源源不断地吸收资金。比如说,最早投入一万块钱,他承诺会在3个月之内给投资者30%、40%的回报,到期之后人们利润、本金都不拿,再继续投给他。他就不断借新还旧地制造骗局,以吸引更多的资金进来,然后再把新投资者的钱作为快速盈利支付给最初投资的人。
……
Introduction

如果从读者的角度观察,我们可以理解您在阅读本书时的一个困惑,那就是我们所载入的新闻事件,其实都已经成为了“旧闻”。所以,单从时效性上讲,您或许会觉得自己仿佛是在阅读历史,虽然这些历史事件发生的时间并不久远。而这一问题也恰恰是我们撰文成书时的最大困惑,那就是:读者究竟需要阅读什么样的内容?一些已经发生过的旧闻,是否还能对读者具有足够的吸引力?
在经过反复琢磨之后,我们发现其实这并不是一个无解的问题。正如同我们常常讲的一个话题:这世界上的两种经济模式分别是什么?很多人面对这样的问题,会响亮地回答:“市场经济模式”和“计划经济模式”。参照教科书的逻辑,这样的答案显然是对的。但是在一个财经媒体评论人看来,真正准确的回答应该是“经济模式”和“中国经济模式”。
中国三十多年来的高速发展证明了其经济模式的独特性。体制改革所带来的巨大红利,以及人口众多的独特之处,再加上百姓发自内心的创富热情,让中国的经济模式总是显得那么与众不同。以至于人们常说,谁能够解读清楚中国经济,谁就肯定能拿下首个属于中国人的诺贝尔经济学奖。也正因如此,如果我们从模式分析的角度去看待中国经济,就会发现“时效性”已经不再是最重要的问题。因为,这个模式本身是不会在短期内有所改变的。
中国经济模式的最大特征有两个:一是路径革新,二是路径依赖。文字上的矛盾其实并不代表实质性的冲突。所有当下中国经济发展所取得的成就都是依靠路径革新,从最宏观层面的市场体制改革,到最微观的百姓日常理财方式,财富的创造与取得全都依赖于此。而人类的惰性表明,一旦我们习惯了某种生存方式之后,都会在潜意识里拒绝新的变化,哪怕这种变化是积极有效的。所以,路径依赖在中国同样存在。
投资拉动是中国经济三十年增长最直接的动力,而改变、优化这一动力的尝试也持续了至少十几年。但很遗憾的是,至少到今天为止,我们还没有看到任何实质性的变化。更为重要的是,随着时间的推移,路径革新的成效开始递减,而路径依赖的症状开始加强。一种被称为“既得利益群体”的人开始左右或制约着下一步的路径创新。他们享受着之前路径革新所带来的福利,同时也惧十白下一步路径革新所带来的影响,由此使得路径依赖成为了一个现实的无奈结局。
……

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