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Jingdong book

诺贝尔经济学奖获得者丛书:金融危机、流动性与国际货币体制

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诺贝尔经济学奖获得者丛书:金融危机、流动性与国际货币体制

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《诺贝尔经济学奖获得者丛书:金融危机、流动性与国际货币体制》由让·梯若尔根据意大利银行的Paolo Baffi讲座的讲稿修订而成。他分析了上世纪80年代拉美国家金融危机、90年代斯堪的纳维亚地区金融危机,以及后来发生的墨西哥、东南亚、俄罗斯以及阿根廷金融危机的特征,防范危机的制度改革,以及为此而进行的全球金融体制的重建等重要问题。
Author Description

让·梯若尔(Jean Tirole),2014年诺贝尔经济学奖得主,1978年在巴黎第九大学获得应用数学博士学位, 1981年在麻省理工学院获得经济学博士学位。现担任法国图卢兹大学产业经济研究所科研所长,同时在巴黎大学、麻省理工学院担任兼职教授,并先后在哈佛大学、斯坦福大学担任客座教授。1984年至今担任《计量经济学》(Econometrica)杂志副主编。 同时还是普纳思经济管理研究院学术委员。梯若尔教授具有非凡的概括与综合能力,他总是能够把经济学的任何一个领域中最为本质的规律和最为重要的成果以最为简洁的经济学模型和语言表达出来,并整理成一个系统的理论框架。
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★让·梯若尔是经济学思想的重要价值的完美体现,他将智慧的光芒和热量洒向他所涉及的每一个研究领域。在这本著作中,他为我们提供了一个有关国际金融危机的详尽的事实与严谨理论的完美结合。他提出的双重代理和共同代理的观点拓展了我们对国际金融体制的作用和存在的缺陷的认识,并指出了改革的道路。所有有志于从事这个领域研究的专家、学者都应当认真阅读本书。
——阿维纳什·迪克西特(Avinash Dixit)。普林斯顿大学

★本书代表了国际金融体系的建构引入强有力的理论基础的深入尝试。它的分析简洁优美,得出的结论不同寻常并发人深思。对于致力于国际金融体制建构的学术讨论的经济学家,本书是一本不可或缺的参考书。
——奥利维亚·让内(Olivier Jeanne),国际货币基金组织

★大多数关于国际金融改革的观点和建议都源于对近期金融危机的片面解释,让·梯若尔却回到了首要的原理。他研究了国际融资与国内融资中借贷双方的关系的本质差异。你也许不完全同意他的观点,但是,读完本书后却不得不重新审视自己的观点。
——彼得·凯南(PeterB.Kenen),普林斯顿大学

★让·梯若尔运用公司金融的理论工具,分析国际金融中的基本问题。如同我们所期待的,我们从中获得了广泛而深刻的洞见:关于借贷双方的行为,IMF的正当作用,以及私人部门对于有序解决危机的介入,这是所有关注国际金融体制建构的学者的必读之作。
——理查德·波特斯(Richard Portes),伦敦商学院
Catalogue

第一章 新兴市场危机与政策反应
一、危机前阶段
二、危机
三、IMF改革、规制变化与私人部门创新

第二章 经济学家的观点
一、普遍观点
二、相互冲突的建议和颠倒法则
三、“不现实”的主权侵犯
四、理论

第三章 分析框架与主要内容
一、标准借方问题
二、为什么外部借款不同
三、对市场失灵的制度和政策反应

第四章 封闭经济中的流动性与风险管理
一、公司金融:关键的组织原理
二、国内流动性供给

第五章 市场失灵的识别:债务国是普通的借款人吗
一、相似性和一些潜在的差别
二、双重代理观点
三、政府的激励机制
四、讨论
五、共同代理观点

第六章 双重代理和共同代理观点的内涵
一、内涵1:代表假设
二、内涵2:政策分析
三、跨国比较
四、有成立国际最终贷方的需要吗

第七章 制度性内涵:IMF扮演什么角色
一、从市场失灵到任务设计
二、治理

第八章 结论
参考文献
关键词中英文对照表
译后记
Book Abstract

《诺贝尔经济学奖获得者丛书:金融危机、流动性与国际货币体制》:
即便如此,国家主权问题也并不足以否定上述基本原理,它只是限制了原理的适用范围。但这种情形并不是国家主权问题所特有的(尽管比在公司情况下要重要得多)。不景气公司的债权人不可能通过要求工人一星期紧张工作50个小时或是要求经理层公开有损其利益的消息来保证救援性一揽子方案的实施。在国际金融范畴中,这意味着,要求国家过多地放弃主权反而会导致主权国家宁愿牺牲国家声誉或面临制裁而不是遵守诺言。比较控制权的相对支付意愿会帮助我们理解这一问题,因为它着重讨论了在给定投资者保护水平的情况下,能对国家主权造成最小伤害的权力。
这一点说明了所有权与条件依赖性之间的第一种联系——国家应当自愿地接受救援方案所实施的一些政策。从抽象的观点来看(代理理论),如果委托人和代理人的目标一致,那么代理人就会更好地工作。在我们这个特殊的范畴内,对于那些实际的实现能力(精神而不是实质)紧密依赖于和政府的合作关系的情形而言,一致性是十分重要的。所以,在某些需要国家支持的情况下,一定程度的所有权是必需的(所有权并不是目的而是必要条件)。我们将在第六章中讨论第二种联系。
五、共同代理观点
现在我们将介绍第二个因素——共同代理人,并在国家债务的范畴内讨论共同代理问题(我们将看到这和私人借贷问题十分相似)。
虽然伴随政府职能的下降,私人债务危机增长显得越来越重要,但是,“旧式”的国家债务危机仍然存在,而且还会继续存在。例如墨西哥、俄罗斯、巴西,最近的有厄瓜多尔、巴基斯坦、罗马尼亚以及乌克 兰等国的危机都是国家债务危机。
如果主权国家从唯一贷款人那里获得贷款,那么该贷款人和债务国政府就能通过签订互惠的债务合同,将借贷关系中的代理问题内在化。虽然代理问题会严格限制双方在贸易中的收益,进而限制金融合约的级别和期限,但是不会出现市场失灵。最终的协议将是双方所能得到的最佳选择。相比之下,当政府(同时和先后)向多个贷款人借贷时,就会孕育着市场失灵的产生。
和我们在第四章中讨论的一样,不存在一个“总合约”使得政府和所有的贷款人坐在同一张桌前讨论合约的期限,并对违约债务国做出处罚。国家和一个贷款人之间的金融交易施加在其他贷款人身上的非内在化的外部性会带来无效性,在完全竞争的资本市场范畴内,这种无效性经由投资者传递,最终由借款人(国家)承担后果。
将第四章的讨论应用于国家借贷问题,我们可知共同代理问题会导致过度借贷。当贷款人向一个严重负债的国家贷款时,贷款人和国家都意识到这种贷款会使国家更难偿还它的债务。然而,贷款人对此并不关心,因为他只想得到高额的风险溢金。但是这会造成其他贷款人的权益贬值。同样,共同代理问题不仅简单地影响借贷额度,而且它还会影响贷款的组成。当将贷款的偿还期结构向短期倾斜时.个别贷方和政府将不会理会其他投资者长期权益的降低,而这种降低是由国家出现中短期流动性紧缩的概率升高而引起的。
在理想情况下,政府能够和所有的国外贷款人一起签订一个“总合约”以解决合约的外部性问题。但这就需要列出政府通过各种直接或间接方式向国外借款来抵押期权的所有途径,并设立一个监督机构来保证政府报告的透明性以及确保对违约行为的限制和制裁。回忆第四章中讨论的共同代理问题便可知道,这会导致集体行动的难题。与公司借款人情况类似,这里的集体行动问题指的是对金融协议的监督,对违规的惩罚和在衰退期的再谈判问题。任何单个投资者都不具有最优的激励为完成这些任务而动用自己的资源,因而几乎肯定会出现搭便车行为。
……

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