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Jingdong book

超级强势股:如何投资小盘价值成长股(珍藏版)

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超级强势股:如何投资小盘价值成长股(珍藏版)

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什么是超级强势股?3-5年内股价上涨3-10倍,以二级公司的价格买入超级公司的股票,要获取超额收益,就要避免用传统方法去衡量股票。如果以收益法来购买股票是左边半场,以资产法来购买股票是右边半场,那么最好的方式是去一个新的体育场,不要在购买股票的层面上思考,忘记买股票,而是思考如何买下整个生意。很多投资者就是不停下来思考这家公司的生意有多大,只关注每股收益和每股净资产。
《超级强势股:如何投资小盘价值成长股(珍藏版)》告诉读者,买入超级强势股就是买入公司,这个公司必须: 保持较高的未来长期销售收入年均增长率; 保持较高的长期平均税后利润率; 买入时的市销率足够低。
Author Description

肯尼斯·费雪(Kenneth L.Fisher),费雪投资公司创始人、董事会主席以及首席执行官。曾被美国著名杂志《投资顾问》评选为30年内行业最有影响力的30人之一。
他的父亲——菲利普·费雪,被誉为“成长股投资策略之父”,也是巴菲特所称的“投资灵感的启发者之一”,著有投资经典著作《怎样选择成长股》。
肯尼思 L.费雪在投资领域的成就可能不亚于自己的父亲。其掌管的费雪投资公司成立于1979年,公司旗下管理资产规模从上世纪90年代初的10亿美元增长至350亿美元,2009年8月曾达到450亿美元。
2009年,肯尼思度过了自己为《福布斯》“投资组合策略”专栏写作25周年的纪念日,成为该杂志历史上时间第四长的专栏作家。他在每一期的专栏里都会向投资者推荐股票。《福布斯》从1997年开始统计他所挑选的股票表现,并和标准普尔500指数对比,发现肯尼思过去14年挑选的股票有11年击败了标准普尔500指数,平均每年跑赢标准普尔500指数5.2%。
肯尼思也堪称美国的股票市场预测者。他在专栏中曾经成功预测了2000年3月6日科技股泡沫的顶部,并成功猜中过去4次熊市的3次(1987年、1990年和2000年)。
Catalogue

前言
致谢
第一部分
剖析超级强势股
第1章 利用“困境”致富
第2章 什么使困境发生转变

第二部分
定价分析
第3章 股票估值的传统方法:十倍的收益太高,千倍的收益却太低
第4章 定价决定一切:运用市销率
第5章 市研率:胜人一筹的代价
第6章 市销率在非超级强势股上的应用
第7章 置之死地而后生:20世纪30年代的神话

第三部分
基本面分析
第8章 超级公司:从商业角度追求卓越
第9章 回避风险:回避竞争
第10章 利润率分析(1):我真正想要的是压倒性竞争优势
第11章 利润率分析(2):公式和法则

第四部分
动态过程
第12章 在实践中运用:存在变得疯狂的方法
第13章 趁好就收:何时出售
第14章 Verbatim公司:迪斯科的产物
第15章 California Microwave公司:波浪式前进

附录
附录A 调研管理层时的35个典型问题
附录B 市销率与公司规模
附录C 《福布斯》对Verbatim公司的报道
附录D 经营Material Progress Corporation
附录E 一个可能的案例
附录F 补充内容
译者后记
Book Abstract

最赚钱的普通股票投资,往往是那些虽不受华尔街青睐,但却年轻的快速成长型公司。这类股票正变得越来越有价值,因为随着公司规模不断扩大,金融界终于意识到了它们的真正价值,随之股价也被抬高了。
年轻的快速成长型公司通常有一定的成长周期。这种周期与多种因素有关,其中最重要的是“产品生命周期”。由于年轻和缺乏经验,这类公司的管理层可能会犯严重错误,这将会造成损失,甚至可能危及公司的生存。
好的年轻公司会从错误中吸取教训,并不断改进以做得更好。
与其说犯错代表缺点,不如说它代表发展。只有极少数公司会享受长年的快速成长而不陷入“困境”,这些困境往往导致收益的不如意甚至损失。
每家被金融界推崇的公司,都会被人们生动地描绘成有着光明的前景,并且值得高定价。他们可能说它拥有“一流的管理层,会占有新的市场份额,会借助目前的技术实力进入新市场,会发展新技术来开拓新局面”。
在硅谷,此类公司每年的收益都不错。这些特定的名字会随着时间的改变而发生微妙的变化。有些公司会被人们认为是“成长型公司”,它们可大可小。这些企业传奇式发展的秘密被不断地揭示出来,但其发展过程中有些内幕是不为人知的。当“不谐音符”最终被发现,股票价格便大受影响。
这些股票价格下跌的幅度非常大,以至于要好几个月,甚至是好几年才能恢复到下跌之前的水平。
但有一些股票的价格便再未真正恢复了。不谐音符一出现,并且(第一次)所赚取的收入减少,或无法如期实现,金融界便落井下石,打压该股票价格,这时股价会在短短数月下跌80%之多。继而所谓的“专家们”开始断定该公司的管理层水平低劣,误导了投资者。“专家们”还断言市场没有公司管理层预言的那么大的潜力,所用的技术也很差。
其实,该公司没他们想象得那么糟,也没他们之前预计得那么好。前者的可能性更大些。该公司很可能是一家很棒的公司。问题很简单,那就是对该公司的盈利预期和之前的股票价格都太高了。
我们知道,产品周期始于一个有创意的点子和初始的市场调查。随着大笔资金的支出和最开始低产出生产的启动,公司继续发展。随之而来的是巨额的营销费用。到这时为止,这个新的生产项目(可能是个工程)除了消耗资金,什么也没干。
随后来了几笔订单,这让人们深受鼓舞。初始的发货一般都会慎之又慎,甚至延迟,以确保质量,维护名声。货物发出,销售开始。最终产量要确保充足,以使获利充分(如图1—1所示)。
然后生产开始成熟,也许新的竞争者出现,市场开始饱和,销量增长趋于平缓(如图1—2所示)。
几年后,销量开始下滑(如图1—3所示),产品已经成熟,也许该产品会被新产品取代,利润减少甚至消失。总有一天该生产线将以较低的价格卖给他人继续生产该产品,或者被废弃。最终它几乎肯定要淡出历史舞台。这就是一个完整的产品生命周期,期间的整个产品销售曲线如图1—4所示。
……

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