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读懂上市公司:掘金股市公开信息

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《读懂上市公司:掘金股市公开信息》为读者提供了一套完整的评估上市公司基本面信息的体系,通过解读上市公司年报、公司企业文化以及管理层的动向,帮助广大投资者发现一家公司真正的价值与潜在的风险。《读懂上市公司:掘金股市公开信息》能帮助读者:解读上市公司CEO表象下的真实公司经营信息;通过新闻材料帮助投资者判断一家公司真实的态度与意图;从年报与季报中帮助投资者分离出真实信息;确保投资者将资产投到真正值得投资的公司。

Catalogue

赞誉
致谢
译者序
作者简介
译者简介
前言
第一章决策层的沟通与表现
读懂上市公司--安然公司
致股东信和无声的检查制度
提防出现下一个安然
从华尔街到法纳姆街
第一位投资者关系客户
致股东信的黄金公式
致股东信和财务价值
文字和数据
第二章企业的文化、诚信与价值观
企业文化的来源
从致股东信中寻找价值观
在致股东信的故事里发现企业文化
诚信:经验之谈
诚信和企业表现
企业文化与经营绩效:三大理论
想象致股东信的读者是你要向他汇报进展情况的听众
可持续发展的文化
第三章建立可持续的商业模式
用检查清单对内容进行编码
清单之外:参透语境
获取战略优势:为语境加分
复杂问题简单化
预知未来的模式
用战略和前瞻的领导力拔得头筹
语言的战斗
一旦你一无所有
建立可持续的商业模式
第四章资本运营监管
为致股东信中的内容评分
线索1:现金和现金流
线索2:资产负债表的效力
线索3:资本约束
线索4:严格的财务和运营目标
线索5:风险意识
第五章坦诚与沟通风险
全球信任调查
监管、坦诚、信任和谎言
"雾"里看花
坦诚和执行的预测价值:惠普和戴尔
为坦诚鼓掌
第六章战略
案例分析:福特汽车公司的"一个团队、一个计划、一个目标"
标准1:将复杂的战略简单化
标准2:制定阶段性绩效目标
标准3:将战略与资本约束联系起来
标准4:将定位行为放在首位
标准5:有效的沟通
标准6:通过不断重复让战略建立广泛的认同感
标准7:独一无二的竞争优势
第七章领导力
方面1:教育读者
方面2:提供有价值的信息
方面3:报告问题
方面4:思维的二元性
方面5:阐释动态的世界观
第八章愿景
案例:IBM--永不放弃的"蓝色巨人"
在可持续商业中定位愿景的线索
线索1:用简单的话语诠释深刻的含义
线索2:创新
线索3:讲的故事寓教于乐
线索4:情商:个人与真实
线索5:企业目的与使命
第九章利益相关者的关系
线索1:建立主人翁文化
线索2:有利益相关者的参与
线索3:平衡利益相关者的需求
第十章责任制
线索1:目标与成果相联系
线索2:公司财务状况报告的一致性
线索3:重视底线:首席执行官的成绩单
线索4:低比例的FOG和高标准原则
第十一章诚信与责任危机
良性FOG与恶性FOG
恶性FOG与雷曼兄弟的陨落
坦诚度得分与市场表现
说话算话
语境所致
"似是而非"年代中的坦诚
第十二章真实性
短期综合征:账目为王
首席执行官的薪酬
低道德带来的高成本
为什么要投资这家公司:Facebook的首次公开招股
真相更重要
真实性与长期性
真实与独特的风格
注释

Book Abstract

第一章 决策层的沟通与表现
当记者听到说人们可以从首席执行官致股东的信(类似于公司的年报)中可以获取重要信息时,他们笑了,他们甚至认为这些信函中充斥着谎言。他们并没有期待从中可以发现有意义的东西。主持人戴伦.卡根在一次CNN的节目中采访我时承认说,她每年春天都会将一沓没有看过的年终报告塞进垃圾箱里。她说:“读那些报告简直就是庸人自扰。”
任何一个希望从致股东的信函中挖掘出一些信息出来的人都知道,这是一件几乎不可能完成的任务,因为很多报告都是用专业术语和流水账堆砌出来的。但是当投资者告诉我说,他们认为CEO的文字陈述不知所云时,其实他们早已参透了其中的重要信息。如果交流不能起到任何作用或者说只能扭曲原意,那么请你扪心自问一下:是CEO不懂自己所从事的业务,还是他其实想隐藏些什么?董事会和执行团队难道没有看过这些报告吗?如果看了,他们中为何没有一个人向CEO谏言,希望他修改自己不知所云的文字?
如果投资者无法从交流中获取信息,他们为何会信任这家公司的领导层?那就更不用提信任这个公司的账目数字了。
决策层的沟通透露出的是CEO的性格。致股东的信是不是以个人的名义写的?CEO是愿意开诚布公地展示独特的自我,还是会找替罪羊保护自己?他是会坦承公司犯下的错误和即将面临的挑战,还是仅仅只报喜不报忧?可靠的领导写出不偏不倚的报告来赢得信任,不可靠的领导只会扭曲事实而失去信任。
致股东信函可以透露出一个CEO潜意识里的东西。如果他的最初目的是不让投资者了解业务的情况下推动公司发展,那么他得到的将只是浮云.而不是事实。事实所占的比重是衡量财务完整性和股东价值最重要的风向标。这就是本书的关键所在。读懂上市公司一一安然公司
2001年年初,很难想象安然公司会陷入困境。它被《财富》杂志连续6年评为“最具创新力的公司”,并且安然公司的股票在市场上被认为是最有价值的股票。当公司2000年的年报于2001年年初出炉的时候,当时的股价是每股70美元,或者说是超过所赚收入的60倍。公司的董事会成员包括ACI主席、斯坦福商学院的退休院长及会计学名誉退休教授、美国商品交易委员会前任主席以及英国前任能源部长。
然而2000年由主席肯尼思。莱和CEO杰夫.斯基林签署的致股东信中,就发出了陷入困境的信号。在信的第一小节中提到:“公司的净利润在2000年达到13亿美元的巅峰。”这是一个让人印象深刻的数字。但是当我想从文中查找其经审计的收人数据的时候,这个数字并没有找到,取而代之的是赫然在目的9.79亿美元。
……
Introduction

如何读懂一个上市公司,这个问题似乎问得很怪。作为一个经济实体,怎么需要去读懂呢?这是一个现代社会的悖论。因为信息不对称的存在,企业之/7t,~人永远都没有企业內部人更了解其自身的情况,而后者的内部也存在同样的问题,站在不同的岗位,对企业经营情况的了解程度也不同。
上市公司的好处就在于,作为一家公众投资的公司,有责任和义务向广大的投资者说明企业的运营管理和发展等各方面的情况。此时,只存在一个问题,即作为最了解内情的首席执行官,他是否真实坦诚地向公众披露了应该交代的每个细节。致股东信就是上市公司首席执行宫与公众沟通的一个重要窗口。业内真正运用这一工具最拿手并享有良好声誉的CEO是伯克希尔一哈撒韦公司的现任掌门人沃伦.巴菲特。但那不是孤例,假如真是那样的话,也就不会有这本书了。
本书作者是里滕豪斯排行榜公司的首席执行官,而该公司的一项主要咨询服务就是对上市公司作出排名。为此,该公司研发了一种以公司冠名的可持续商业模式评估体系。该体系由7个部分组成(见下图),包含130个话题,通过对每个话题打分并加总,对上市公司进行排名。迄今为止,作者用这个体系已经评估了1000多封上市公司CEO的致股东信。从这个角度分析上市公司的经营状况,对其发展前景和风险进行预测,确实是一顶创造性的成果。
面对一份上市公司年报,我们如何从中找出真正能反映公司经营实绩和风险的信息呢?中国读者和股市参与者可以从中得到启发。一般而言,中国上市公司的年报并不注重董事长致股东的信,尽管这部分内容通常放在年报首页的醒目位置,但其内容却多数是陈词滥调,甚至让人怀疑是否每年只是在前一年文稿的基础上略加改动的敷衍之作。而管理层讨论这部分的内容,往往是年报中最为集中讨论经营状况和原因分析的章节。我们可以参考本书的理念和做法,对关注的上市公司做一个类似的分析,结果也许会让你大吃一惊。
中国上市公司与中国资本市场一样,还非常不成熟,存在诸多根深蒂固的问题,其中不诚信问题非常突出。如果一个企业还习惯于做假账,或根本对股东知情权无动于衷,那么分析其年报,必然是缘木求鱼的无益之举。好在我们看到资本市场的监管正在加强,而且市场上也并非漆黑一片,清者自清,浊者自浊。作为投资者,我们还是应该提高自身辨别好坏的能力,通过定量分析(对财务数据进行解读)和定性分析(仔细阅读管理层讨论)相结合的方法,读懂一家上市公司。从这个角度看,这本书给我们提供了一个独特的视角和有意义的方法论。


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