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Jingdong book

低欲望社会:“丧失大志时代”的新 · 国富论

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《低欲望社会》是著名日本管理学家、“策略先生”大前研一近期出版的社会观察类畅销名作,书中针对日本当下的社会经济现状和特点,将其他发展成熟的国家尚未遇到的社会问题,概要性地归结为一个词,“低欲望社会”——人口减少、超高龄化、失去上进心和欲望的年轻人越来越多;国民持有大量的金融资产,企业也有高额的内部准备金,却未能有效运用资金,无论是货币宽松政策或公共投资,无法提升消费者信心,撒钱政策亦无力振兴经济……

面对“低欲望社会”的问题,就算股票持续大涨也不是高兴的时候。但大前研一也指出,并不是要指责年轻人欲望低落,因为这种无欲无求的倾向,在时代脉络之下,也是一种合理的选择。必须思考的是,身处于“低欲望社会”,国民与企业应该如何因应。

“低欲望”的年轻族群,对企业带来严重影响,其后的世代可能也拥有类似的价值观。企业必须确实分析他们的想法及行为,精准掌握他们的价值观,重新拟定各种策略及商业模式。

针对欲望低迷、人力不足、经济不振等问题,《低欲望社会》援引欧美有类似先例国家的做法,提出一系列相应的策略性建议,如都市再开发、闲置土地如何利用、移民政策改善、优化观光地配套建设、刺激“熟龄大人”消费、人才教育转型等等。

《低欲望社会》所作的观察和策应,对读者了解日本社会经济状况和发展很有帮助,也富有一定的警示作用,同时,大前研一基于以上观察和“身处21世纪,成就事业的关键是培养和拥有多少高端人才”的认识与危机感,对家长和年轻人,提出了“要有胸怀全球的憧憬教育”的理念,这一点对国内读者同样有很好的启示。


Author Description

大前研一
日本著名管理学家、经济评论家。英国《经济学人》评其为“全球五位管理大师”之一,“日本战略之父”。并认为是亚洲国家唯1可与彼得?德鲁克与汤姆?彼得斯比肩的商业管理思想大师。
1943年出生于日本福冈。日本早稻田大学应用化学系毕业,其后获东京工业大学核工硕士、麻省理工学院核工博士学位。曾任日立制作所核能开发部工程师,1972年进入麦肯锡顾问公司,历任总公司资深董事、日本分公司社长、亚洲太平洋地区会长。1994年离开麦肯锡,其后仍以全球观点及大胆创见,为国际级企业及亚洲国家提出建言。曾先后担任加利福尼亚大学洛杉矶分校研究生院教授、斯坦福大学商学院客座教授。2005年,创建商业突破研究所大学(BusinessBreakthroughSchool,BBT),并担任校长,致力培养日本未来优秀人才。
在世界各国,均能看到大前研一的企业经营及经济、管理类相关着作,着有《思考的技术》《M型社会》《专业主义》《一个人的经济》等书。

Comments

“低欲望社会”,引爆全球的话题!
全世界都在“低欲望社会”化,日本正迎向美丽的衰败。
——大前研一《2018年的世界》

日本进入“低欲望社会”,面临经济上一大危机
——人民网日文版

低欲望社会:日本“新标签”
——新华网

透视“佛系”日本:低欲望令社会陷入危机
——参考消息网

刚刚,日本公布了一个噩耗!低欲望社会有多可怕?……
——新浪新闻

什么是“低欲望社会”?为什么日本社会会进入这种状态?
——知乎

新华社街访日本“低欲望社会”:一个人的感觉可能太舒服
——网易新闻
Catalogue

新版前言 “28万亿日元经济对策”反而搅动了不安 001
前言 不再以《坂上之云》为动力的日本人 001
第一章 现状分析
“人口减少+低欲望社会”的冲击
第二章 政府的极限
时刻防备“安倍经济学冲击”
第三章 新·经济对策
用“心理经济学”思考增长战略
第四章 统治机构改革
现在就要改变国家构造

Introduction

不再以《坂上之云》为动力的日本人
为什么经济学家预测的都不准
前些日子,从长野县停车场经营者那里,听闻了颇耐人寻味的一段话。停车场投币机里投入的纸币币种,经济景气好的时候,10000日元纸币和平整如新的纸币居多。经济景气不好的时候,1000日元纸币或100日元硬币以及皱巴巴的纸币居多。景气不好不坏的时候,则是5000日元纸币和500日元硬币居多。这就非常有趣了。而2016年的夏季,10000日元纸币和平整如新的纸币奇少,1000日元纸币和100日元硬币,甚至是10日元硬币和皱巴巴的纸币奇多。这是包括泡沫经济崩溃后的1990年代以及2008年雷曼兄弟破产引发的经济危机在内,从未有过的现象。
虽然这只是单纯的地方城镇街坊聊天的谈资,但是比起专业的经济学家们的“预测”,这些谈资有时更能真实地反映市场景气状况。
2012年年底,诞生的第二次安倍晋三政权,藉由安倍经济学的经济政策,承若今后10年内实现经济增长。让名义GDP增长率平均达3%,实际GDP增长率平均达2%。
虽然2013年实际GDP增长率为2.1%(全年为1.6%),但在增加消费税后的2014年4—6月期间,换算成年率实质减少7.1%。根据日本经济研究中心的调查,民间主要的经济学家们在同年度7月调查中预测,调高消费税的快速实施及反弹作用,将使GDP减少4.9%。但实际的跌幅却大大超过了预期值,其结果显示了日本经济的急度减速。另外,在同年度10月调查中,经济学家们又预测7—9月期间,实际GDP以年率换算将平均上扬3.66%。但这回又大大颠覆了经济学家们的预测,换算成年率的结果,则是萎缩了1.9%。接着在11—12月期间也是如此。经济学家们在2015年1月调查中,预测经济增长将由负转正,GDP修正为增长3.4%。但其结果只增加了1.5%,虽然GDP时隔三个季度转为正增长,但与事前的预测值相比,下挫近二个百分点。
2014年实际GDP增长率为负0.03%,是2011年遭遇东日本大地震以来,时隔三年呈现负增长。但民间调查机构在前一年所预测的平均数值,则是正增长0.9%(0.2—1.8%)。二者还是有一个百分点的相差。
为什么经济学家们的预测都不准呢?
一些经济报刊将其原因归结为在预测时,由于各种经济指标本身的误差等,造成分析上的技术因素。然而,这些分析并没有触及本质。
比如,经济学家们分析,2014年4—6月期间GDP大幅下挫的原因,是因为调高消费税前,消费者大量消费后的一个市场反弹的结果。但我认为其理由并不限于此。同年9月,从日本央行公布的全国企业短期经济观察调查来看,显示企业景气状况的业绩状况判断指数(DI),从6月份开始调查后就几乎没有得到改善。就其结果,日本央行总裁黑田东彦在10月份的经济财政咨询会议上加以说明:“比预想的要好。业绩状况判断指数维持在了一个比较高的水准上。”他并表示“景气持续处于回稳的基调,消费也朝稳态推移”。但实际情况并非如此。
当时零售界的两强永旺(AEON)和7&I控股公司(Seven & i Holdings),在2014年8月发表中间决算报告。报告显示两家企业的超市业务都呈萎缩状态。同年9月,四家大型百货店的营业额,除了三越伊势丹,其他三家都低于去年同期。就算偏袒而言,景气也最多是原地踏步,手头紧,消费低迷则是显而易见。
尽管如此,安倍首相在秋天召开临时国会上的施政演说中,仍然不忘强调安倍经济学的效果:“有效招聘倍率(理论上招聘倍率可以反应统计周期内劳动力市场的供需状况。当招聘倍率大于1,说明职位供不应求;如果招聘倍率小于1,说明职位供大于求。)达到了时隔22年的最高水准。”“今年春季,许多企业将会上调薪金。”另外,安倍首相还进一步主张经济的“良好循环论”:“股票上扬与消费相连。消费有所增加,企业收益就有所提高,薪金也因此上调;而薪金上调,消费就进一步增加”。显然,想藉由“良好循环论”将安倍经济学正当化。但问题在于,日本与美国不同。日本人个人几乎不持股票。所以因股价上扬带动市场良好循环这个现象,至今没有出现。而因股价上扬薪金也上调的说法,也是首次耳闻。恐怕只有压低薪金,企业收益有所提高,股票才能上扬吧。
虽然不知道为安倍首相撰写这份施政演说讲稿的是谁,但也呈露出对日本经济构造的无知,达到了令人吃惊的程度。
史无前例的“低欲望社会”的出现
即便如此,安倍首相仍然在国会大选时,持续主张安倍经济学,并打出“唯有这条路”的宣传口号,选举取得了压倒性的胜利。原本,许多自民党议员为了阻止被“增税派”的财务省“劫持”而主动计划大选,但从结果看则演变成了对安倍经济学投上信任票的大选。但正因为如此,我认为,日本经济终要步入真正的危险水域了。
为什么说是危险的?一言以蔽之,原因在于安倍首相无法理解目前日本经济直面的根本问题。而一直主导安倍经济学的经济政策智囊们也有责任。担任内阁官房的美国耶鲁大学名誉教授浜田宏一,静冈县立大学教授本田悦朗,还有特地受邀来日本、并被引见给安倍首相的诺贝尔经济学奖获得者美国普林斯顿大学保罗·克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)教授,因他们提出通膨目标论等误导性政策,招致经济的大混乱。
真正成为问题的是: 支配20世纪世界的经济秩序,已不再适用21世纪的日本经济。那些大肆挥舞过去经济理论的宏观经济学者们,他们的想法与这个世界渐行渐远。用我自己的话来说,就是“低欲望社会的出现”。
因日本央行的“异次元货币宽松”政策,日本一直处于异常的资金过利状态中。企业也好个人也好,以惊人的低利率就可以向银行贷款。明明所谓的资本成本如此低廉,却没有人向银行贷款。此外,个人金融资产约为1700万亿日元,企业内部保留金约为380万亿日元。即便有如此雄厚的资金,但就是不想使用。这就是问题所在。
针对我提出的“低欲望社会”等话题,读者当中或许会有人认为,如今日本景气不好是理所当然的,这并不是什么令人耳目一新的话题。或许还有人这样认为,经过“失去的20年”,在长期的通缩状态中,由于便宜的商品到处随手可得,便无需购买高价商品,这样就必然导致以低价格、最少量的物品,就可以维持生计了。不过,在日本出现的这种现象,并非是暂时的。
诚然,日本已经不可能重拾曾经的高度成长期或像泡沫经济时期的好景象了。但是,低欲望的形成,不单纯是景气不好的原因。在上调消费税和“安倍/黑田泡沫”下,通货紧缩也逐渐转向通货膨胀,日元贬值导致物价上涨也随处可见。因此,也并不全是通货紧缩造成的低欲望。更进一步说,我无意指责年轻人欲望低下。年轻人无欲本身,如同本书所解析的那样,从某种层面来看,也是合理的选择。不过,值得思考的是,身处这样的社会,日本企业和个人应该如何应对才是?
这种低欲望社会的出现,是人类从未经验过的现象,日本先于世界各国进入了低欲望社会。正因为如此,全新的政策是必不可少的。但是安倍政权所实施的,则是过去自民党十年如一日的乱撒钱政策。
虽然这只是黑色幽默,但这种行为本身就如同在被阻断的轨道线上,列车还朝着绝壁断崖超速疾驶。安倍政权也正朝着破产突飞猛进。
大前研一

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周销量 600+

$1.66 $1.99 83折
Yami
欣葉
2种选择
欣叶 御大福 芋头麻薯 180g

周销量 600+

$1.66 $1.99 83折
Yami
欣葉
2种选择
欣叶 御大福 芋头麻薯 180g

周销量 600+

$1.66 $1.99 83折
Yami
欣葉
2种选择
欣叶 御大福 芋头麻薯 180g

周销量 600+

$1.66 $1.99 83折
Yami
欣葉
2种选择
欣叶 御大福 芋头麻薯 180g

周销量 600+

$1.66 $1.99 83折

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