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Jingdong book

抓住全球机遇:纷繁世界,决策致胜

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抓住全球机遇:纷繁世界,决策致胜

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人类从未像今天这样,无时无刻不能获得最新的信息,而且,这甚至已经成为一种必要。虽然信息的广泛传播带来不少好处,但它也严重降低了我们的原创的思维能力、创新能力和亟需的领导能力,从而使我们的社会变得更加分散。本书可以帮助你在面对未来挑战的时候,在纷杂的信息中重获专注。
本书的终极目标是为企业、世界以及你自己创造一个更加美好的未来。《抓住全球机遇:纷繁世界,决策制胜》就是要帮助企业领袖及读者战胜21世纪的未知和迷惘,在明确目标的指引下携手共进。
变革是必要的。本书作者, 科尔尼公司CEO罗德侠(Paul A. Laudicina)深入挖掘了一些个人和机构的看法,他们着眼长远,志于修复国际社会结构,铺就通向美好未来的道路,让你可以沿着他们的脚印前行。在解答如何寻找新的见解和思想、如何拓宽眼界,以及为什么要掌握情景规划来了解今天的世界等一系列问题的同时,罗德侠综合并深入剖析了信息过量对所有企业产生的威胁及其应对的解决方法。

Catalogue

第1章全球陷入僵化的思维模式1
阿富汗稳定/反暴动(COIN)政策动态1
过犹不及3
世界就像弹球游戏,不是轮盘赌桌7
方向迷失和决策分析10
第2章变化急剧亦无常13
笨拙的巨人16
警惕自我封闭与自我隔离21
第3章没有掌舵者的世界27
茶党和占领运动:一丘之貉? 28
收益私有化,亏损社会化32
三大赤字36
不可避免的三难困境? 44
基于价值的领导44
第4章轻装简行,回归简朴49
像《芝麻街》一样简洁易懂53
驾驶舱中的混乱56
第5章重建社会关系61
三线鞭令65
暂停原则66
家庭关系的内涵68
第6章不要坐等奇迹发生71
创新:到底是变慢了还是更快了?(我认为是后者) 74
知识孵化场75
奖金激励创新78
用复杂对抗复杂82
即将到来:信息超载,控制它并使其为你服务84
第7章拓宽你的视野87
改变你的信息“节食”习惯90
警惕传统智慧以及通常意义上的专家93
过早正确带来的问题97
发掘最杰出的人物与智囊中心99
第8章将像素变成更清晰的图像105
大胆假设,小心求证:情景思维的框架110
反事实分析和其他未来思维模式115
预测未来,了解当下118
振作精神,抓住全球机遇123
结语125
后记127
致谢133

Introduction

我相信,你手中的这本书将是你读到的最优秀的书籍之一。它凝结了作者的智慧,语言简练,引人入胜,每一页内容都将给你带来格外的收获。在写作过程中,罗德侠践行了他所推崇的理念:通过广博的认识及深入的见解简化日益复杂的世界。能为本书作序,我感到非常荣幸。罗德侠不仅是我的好朋友,他的英明决断和敏锐洞察力曾使我的公司及其领导层大受裨益。另外,他拥有掌握几乎所有事物脉搏的诀窍,这点更是不用说了,简直堪称绝技。对于罗德侠来说,将他的智慧精华实实在在地写出来可能并不是一件容易的事,但是他做到了。我很高兴他写成了这本书,几乎可以称为不可能实现的壮举。罗德侠领导着一家国际优秀机构———科尔尼公司,他在过去数十年里积累了大量的经验。他能从侧面将问题联系起来,形成有意义的见解,每一次都能给我带来惊喜。罗德侠走过世界各地,见多识广,人脉广阔,并将他丰富的人生阅历融入不同的各项业务中。下面,就让你我随着罗德侠一起在他的书中畅游吧!目前世界正经历不断的震荡和变化,而《抓住全球机遇:纷繁世界,决策制胜》一书的面世恰逢其时。在写这篇序的时候,我们正在努力应对多重全球经济冲击带来的后果,并试图了解其意义所在。一些在过去如此强大并占据主导地位的国家,现在正为主权的续存而挣扎。而那些曾处于经济霸主地位的国家,现在正考虑实施紧缩政策。而一些蒸蒸日上、具有魄力的国家则踏上了寻找自身合适位置的新轨道。此番全球格局变动已经影响了整个世界,迫使我们用发散性的思维思考,提供更有说服力的、简单可行的见解。无论愿意与否,政府机构、企业、民间团体或个人都必须重新塑造自己,以便抓住全球机遇。在这一过程中,企业将扮演非常重要的角色———不仅要促进经济的稳定发展,还要为世界注入新的信心,让人们相信未来会更加美好。罗德侠在书中表示,价值观型领导的重要性是必然的。就我个人而言,在做任何事情的时候,我都主张以价值观为主导的价值创造。我的公司从成立之初到现在,一直把改善千百万印度人民的生活水平作为核心价值观和驱动力。通过彻底创新满足人们未满足的需求和愿望,而这样做的结果是使行业发生根本性的变革。游戏规则已经改变,有时甚至连游戏本身都已经改变了。鉴于我自身的公司管理经历和创业经历,本书中的观点引起了我的共鸣。字典对企业家(entrepreneur)的定义是:“组织并管理一家或多家企业的人,并承担比一般财务风险更高的风险。” 在我看来,这一定义并不完整。因为我相信,作为企业家不仅仅是承担企业风险的问题,还包括承担社会及国家风险,是为了让全世界都从中受益。制定决策也不仅仅是做出选择,你的雄心以及你为做成一件事情愿意付出的牺牲,都将影响你的选择。在公司采取的每一个举措当中,我们都努力证明我们的前瞻能力,为所有股东、国家甚至世界考虑的能力。我们制定高风险决策的原因一直都是:为了最广大的股东的利益。罗德侠谈及了很多看似软性的要求,但实际上它们对成功非常关键,例如人际关系。我们一直坚信,无论是与股东、客户还是业务伙伴打交道,关系处理都应该放在第一位,建立在信任与宽容的基础上的人际关系使我们的工作能够长期持续。
罗德侠还讨论了信息、复杂性以及在日益庞大的信息海洋中巧妙地找到头绪的必要性。我们深信,在做决策时应该遵循基本原则,这样就能很自然地清除障碍,我们也就把注意力集中到最重要的成功要素上。当然,在此过程中,坚持不懈的精神和坚定不移的信念也至关重要。有时候这一过程会变得异常艰难,但是只要我们“不惜任何代价坚持到底”,就能渡过难关。
最后,罗德侠探讨了战略规划,重点讨论通过情景制订战略规划。我们始终坚信,一个好的战略,必须执行到位才能发挥其最佳效果。而连接战略制订和执行的便是战略规划。我们对制订正确规划的重视已经到了让人难以置信的程度。我们通过一套全面的计划制订了一项动态战略,制订了备用的应急措施,以便修正路线。罗德侠一针见血地指出,这将成为这一“持续剧烈变化” 的世界在现在和未来所必须经历的。预测长期未来发展是一件很难的事情,但是天生的直觉加上敏锐、有时甚至有些偏执的规划能够产生理想的结果。科技已经彻底改变了企业构思、设置和部署的方式。海量的信息是利用情报和洞察力促进业务指数式增长的又一机会。
我们生活在创意经济的时代,事物的变化速度高到极其危险的程度。所以,规划应是一个实时、连续的过程,另外还需要机敏、灵活。这样才能让组织在不停止或放缓发展速度的情况下进行恰当的转变。为此,我们需要富有智慧、敬业、成熟且能洞察外围环境的团队。罗德侠在新书中描绘了这类负责开拓未来的团队的蓝图,这一蓝图非常有说服力。《抓住全球机遇:纷繁世界,决策制胜》为这类团队提供了切实的建议,帮助其成为非凡的世界级团队。对于那些试图从360°的视角,24/7全天候了解世界变化、挑战和机遇的个人来说,罗德侠的新书也是一个富有乐趣、鼓舞人心的指南。
不同于一些人的想法,未来必将会是激动人心、一片光明的。我希望我们都能抓住全球机遇。而且,我相信我们能够做到———本书将帮助我们了解如何抓住全球机遇。穆克什·安巴尼(MukeshAmbani)信实工业集团(RelianceIndustries)主席兼董事总经理

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