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Jingdong book

系统思考（白金版）

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Jingdong book

系统思考（白金版）

Name: 系统思考（白金版）
Brand: Jingdong book
SKU: 3102005821
Price: 19.46 USD
Availability: OutOfStock

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Content Description

系统思考是纵观全局，看清事件背后的结构及要素之间的互动关系并主动地“建构”和“解构”的思维能力。对相同的现象，不同人有不同的见解和观点，有人熟视无睹，有人却看到了其中隐藏的商机和变化的规律。在波谲云诡的市场经济大潮中，唯有炼就一双洞察商潮、洞悉商情的慧眼，才能把若隐若现的暗礁、不期而遇的风浪看得清清楚楚，从而把握变幻无穷的市场风云。如何在纷繁复杂的事件背后抽丝剥茧出简单的结构，从而引导我们做正确的决定，系统思考正是帮助我们走向成功的睿智的“慧眼”。

Author Description

丹尼斯·舍伍德，曾就读于剑桥大学、耶鲁大学、加州大学及伦敦商学院。邱昭良，管理学博士，学习型组织研修中心·中国学习型组织网创始人。

Catalogue

什么是系统思考

0.1系统思考是个重要概念

0.2什么是系统思考

0.3连接

0.4为什么必须从整体上研究系统

0.5系统思考工具箱

0.6系统思考的益处

0.7本书的结构

第一部分处理复杂性

第1章

系统视角

1.1系统

1.2涌现与自组织

1.3反馈

1.4系统思考

1.5继续我们的学习之旅

第2章

撬起内勤之石

2.1故事

2.2环境

2.3问题

2.4图表表示

2.5让图表充实起来

2.6错误带来的恶果

2.7恶性循环

2.8还有哪些处理能力的驱动力

2.9成本如何

2.10仍然遗漏了一个东西

2.11重归睿智

第3章

质量、创造力和削减成本

3.1故事

3.2环境

3.3图片

3.4另一个恶性循环

3.5我们应该做些什么

3.6谁是正确的

3.7制定政策

第二部分工具和技术

第4章

反馈回路

4.1反馈回路的重要角色

4.2增强回路

4.3调节回路

4.4悬摆、边界和真实系统

4.5只存在两种连接：S型连接和O型连接

4.6分辨调节回路和增强回路

4.7两种基本构造块

4.8语言的重要性

4.9是否所有的连接都是非S即O

4.10模糊变量

4.11单方向起作用的S/O型连接

4.12最后一点思考

第5章

增长引擎，也是衰退引擎

5.1恶性循环和良性循环

5.2它们具有相同的结构

5.3增长引擎

5.4增长的模式

5.5指数增长非常快

5.6明确的悬摆和隐含的悬摆

5.7繁荣和衰退

5.8增强回路可以相互连接

第6章

制定目标，寻找目标

6.1关于调节回路的更多内容

6.2商业中的调节回路

6.3调节回路通常相互关联

6.4调节回路和时滞

6.5差异的定义

6.6用武之地马上到了

第7章

如何绘制系统循环图

法则1：了解问题的边界

法则2：从有趣的地方开始

法则3：询问“它将驱动什么”以及“它的驱动力是什么”

法则4：不要陷入混乱

法则5：不要使用动词，请使用名词

法则6：不要使用类似于“在……方面增长/降低”这样的词

法则7：不要害怕从未出现过的项目

法则8：随着进展及时确定连接类型

法则9：坚持就是胜利，持续前进吧

法则10：好图表必须反映实况

法则11：不要爱上你的图表

法则12：没有“已经完成”的图表

第三部分应用

第8章

刺激增长

8.1现实生活中，指数增长无法永续

8.2突破限制

8.3城市人口增长

8.4不用猛踩油门，松开刹车就够了

第9章

决策、团队工作和领导力

9.1人才问题

9.2太明显了

9.3心智模式

9.4团队工作

9.5外包、合伙以及跨边界冲突

第10章

控制杆、成果和战略

10.1控制杆

10.2成果

10.3控制杆和成果是如何连接的

10.4控制杆、成果和系统思考

10.5控制杆、成果和回路

10.6将两个回路连接起来

10.7最后一个连接

10.8其他控制杆作用如何

10.9通用商业模型

10.10完整的图像

10.11激发雄心、远见和想象力

10.12如何具有创造性

10.13回到控制杆和成果

第11章

公共政策

11.1系统思考同样适用于公共政策事务

11.2重提人口

11.3经济活动的后果

11.4系统的结构和行为

11.5盖亚

11.6全球变暖

11.7将回路连接到一起

11.8暴风雨的影响

11.9“天启四骑士”再次降临

11.10超越全球变暖

11.11我们能做些什么

第四部分创建“未来实验室”

第12章

加速系统思考

12.1系统动力学

12.2系统动力学和电子数据表

12.3存量和流量

12.4商业中的存量和流量

12.5另外两个概念

12.6系统循环图和水管图

12.7用ithink建模

第13章

业务增长建模

13.1一个业务例子

13.2模糊变量

13.3为答案而建模，为学习而建模

13.4管理营销组合

13.5寻找优化业务的对策

13.680∶20的分配比例是否最佳

结束语

驾驭复杂性

致谢

参考书目

译者后记

Book Abstract

0．3连接

正如我刚刚指出的，构成系统的实体之间的连接是系统思考中非常重要、非常基础的概念，因此我将在此做一个更详细的解释。

想象一下，假如你手中正握着一枚硬币，如果你松开手，会发生什么？很简单：它会掉到地上。

作为对比，想象一下，假如你扔的不是一枚硬币，而是将你的一种产品的价格降低了5％，又会发生什么呢？这次不是那么简单了——你降价这个单一的动作可能会引发无数不同的结果：从导致销售量的增长（按照最简单的经济逻辑）到触发一场“价格战”；从让一些顾客因为花费更少而高兴，到让另外一些顾客因为失去了奢侈品的感觉而疏远这一产品；从因为你达到本季度的目标而得到晋升，到公司3年后的破产（你的成功让你得到了更多的关注，因此在你升职后不久，你就被你们公司的主要竞争对手“猎头”了，而你同时也带走了你的团队，从而剥夺了你原来公司的主要市场力量）。

所有这些都是那个单一事件——产品降价——的可能后果。除此之外，还可能有很多种其他的后果。一个观测我们这个世界的“火星人”，可能在某种场合发现降价之后紧接着就是销售量上升；在另外一种场合却发现销售量下降；第三种场合里没有变化；随着时间的进行，其他各种后果也有可能发生。那么，“火星人”能得出什么结论？可能是销售量的变化和价格的变动并没有任何联系；也可能是从统计的角度看，降价会增加销售的可能性为1／4；可能那个古怪的、由蓝色和绿色构成的地方非常反复无常，行为方式任性而难以预测——因此无法控制，他最好放弃对地球的研究，转而去研究金星。

我们的世界真的那么反复无常、任意、无法预测、无法控制，抑或发疯了吗？

不！与其说这个世界是个疯狂的世界，不如说是一个复杂的世界。扔一枚硬币和降低价格之间的差异就在于，扔掉一枚硬币所发生的环境非常简单，而降价这一举动所处的环境却极端复杂——一种由连接所引发的复杂。

当你扔一枚硬币时，这一事件所牵涉的实体仅仅包括你自己、那枚硬币和地面。其他的任何人、任何事物都没有直接牵涉其中，这一事件所发生的环境非常有限。但是，当你降低产品价格时，整个环境却迥然不同。很多实体被牵涉其中，它们都被这样或那样的联系连接在一起。你的客户和产品价格因他们的购买习惯而连接在一起；你的竞争对手和产品价格因市场行为而连接在一起；你的同事和价格因降价对业务本身的冲击，以及你因此而获得的地位优势而连接在一起；政府和价格因宏观调控而连接在一起……不一而足。降价这件事情所牵涉的环境几乎是没有边界的，它以波纹效应的形式在近乎无限的时间和空间里传播着。

这种波纹效应就是牵涉其中的各种不同实体之间连接的直接后果。如果不存在连接，这一因果事件链就会受一定的边界所限而很快停下来。然而，由于连接的存在，因果事件链就近乎无限地扩张下去——由一个事件引发下一个事件，然后是再下一个，再再下一个……由于牵涉其中的事件很多，而每个事件都可能有多种行为，从而增加了最终可能出现的结果数目。因此，很快就难有任何信心来估计降价这一小小的动作能够引发出什么样的后果。我们同样也开始认识到因果链可以回溯。为什么我们首先考虑降价？是因为一位新的市场进入者所引入的竞争产品吗？因果链从什么地方开始的？又会在哪里结束？

这就难怪为什么降价的后果比扔一枚硬币难解释多了。归根结底，这都是因为连接的存在。只有几个事件参与、在时间和空间上都受限的事情就易于预测。而那些难以预测的事情通常都涉及很多紧密连接的实体，而且因果事件链在时间和率间两个维度都扩展得很广。

……

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