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Jingdong book

古巴导弹危机回忆录/十三天

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古巴导弹危机回忆录/十三天

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《财富》杂志推荐“75本商务人士必读书”之一!
“商场如战场……危机时刻如何决断,此书提供了很好的范例”!


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Content Description

1962年的古巴导弹危机,几乎酿成第三次世界大战。这一重大事件的内情,一直以来极富话题性,而事件中双方高层的博弈与决策,更被认为是危机时刻领导决策艺术的典范。
时任美国司法部长的罗伯特·肯尼迪在事件中参与了美国方面所有的关键决策,被后世研究者认为是化解危机的关键人物。危机尘埃落定后,他以亲历者的身份,写成《十三天:古巴导弹危机回忆录》,记录下了牵动世界命运的那十三天发生的秘闻,讲述了在那个无比危险的时刻决策者们的情绪变化和运用的计谋与策略。
Author Description

罗伯特·F.肯尼迪 | Robert F. Kennedy,美国当代政治家,20世纪60年代美国政坛风云人物。1961年至1964年担任美国司法部长,辅佐其兄长约翰·F.肯尼迪总统,在化解1962年古巴导弹危机的历史性时刻发挥了重要作用。1965年开始以纽约州联邦参议员身份履职国会,在任内成为越南战争重要的批评者。1968年参选总统,是年6月初,他刚赢得民主党加利福尼亚州预选的胜利,便在洛杉矶遇刺身亡。
Catalogue

序 言(小阿瑟•施莱辛格)
“1962年10月16日星期二上午……”
“总统知道,他必须采取行动。”
“大多数人的意见……赞成搞封锁……”
“如今要由一个人来决策了。”
“美洲国家组织的重要会议……”
“我与多勃雷宁会晤……”
“危险远没有过去。”
“几乎每天都要与赫鲁晓夫联系。”
“应该预料到,入侵会产生非常大的伤亡。”
“这将意味着战争。”
“在内阁会议室中熬过的那几个钟头……”
“总统向执行委员会下令……”
“我们得到的一些经验教训……”
“设身处地为别国着想的重要性。”
后 记(理查德•E•诺伊施塔特、格雷厄姆•T•艾利森)
相关文件
延伸阅读参考书目
Book Abstract

“1962年10月16日星期二上午……”

1962年10月16日星期二上午,时间刚过9点整,肯尼迪总统打来电话,要我去白宫。他仅仅说,我们有大麻烦了。我很快赶到他办公室,他对我说,一架U-2型侦察机刚刚完成拍摄任务,情报部门确信,苏联正在古巴部署导弹和核武器。
古巴导弹危机便发端于此。美苏两个拥有核武器的超级大国开始核对峙,要将世界引向核战毁灭全人类的深渊。在肯尼迪总统办公室,从这一刻开始,直到10月28日星期日上午,我本人乃至所有美国人和苏联人以及全世界人民都命悬一线。
这天上午11:45,中央情报局在内阁会议室向一些政府高官正式介绍情况。我们看到了展示的照片。图像分析专家带着图片指给我们看,告诉我们说,假如我们仔细观察,会看到古巴的圣克里斯托瓦尔城附近正在建造一个导弹基地。我像与会者一样,按他们的话观察,仔细查看一幅幅照片,可我看到的无非是一片农场的空地,或者像是一座房子的地基。后来我为自己什么也没看出来感到安慰,因为包括肯尼迪总统在内的与会者反应跟我完全一样。几天之后也是一样,尽管那个工地上有了一些变化,但总统说,看上去不过像个橄榄球场。
但是,那次会议的与会者主要感到的是震惊。谁也没料到,苏联人会在古巴部署地对地弹道导弹。我回想起此前几个星期在我办公室接见苏联大使安纳托里·多勃雷宁的情况。他当时称,假如双方就地下核试验达成某些协议,苏联准备签署禁止大气层核试验条约。我对他说,我会向肯尼迪总统转达这一信息,并转交随附的文件。
我告诉他说,美国政府内部对运送到古巴的军事设备数量深感担忧。就在那天上午,我还跟总统和国防部长谈及这一话题。有一些证据显示,苏联人除了以一个渔村做掩护部署地对空导弹发射场,还在建造一个大型海军船坞,以及一个潜水艇基地。这一切都受到严密监视,既有潜伏在古巴的秘密特工通过有限却频繁的重要方式报告那里的军备情况,也有从逃抵佛罗里达的难民中筛选出一些人得到审问信息,还有通过U-2侦察机获取的侦察照片。
当时正值选举时期。9月和10月那些秋天的日子,成天充满了攻讦和反诘的喧嚣。共和党人得知眼下的局势充满惊恐,便指控美国没有为捍卫自身安全采取必要步骤。诸如来自印第安纳州的参议员荷马·凯普哈特等人则提出建议,要我们采取军事行动对付古巴。
我把肯尼迪总统对局面深感担忧的情况转达给多勃雷宁大使。他对我说,不必多虑,因为苏联主席尼基塔·S·赫鲁晓夫指示他,要他向肯尼迪总统保证说,不会在古巴部署地对地导弹,也不会部署进攻性武器。另外,他还说,我可以让总统放心,古巴这次增强军备的数量微不足道,赫鲁晓夫不会在这次选举中搞破坏两国关系的活动。他说,赫鲁晓夫主席喜欢肯尼迪总统,不会让他尴尬的。
我向他指出,他表示赞美的方式非常奇怪;苏联在古巴一直从事的活动让美国深感担忧;加勒比地区正在发生军事活动,他的友好声明毫无意义。我告诉他说,我们在密切关注古巴的军备情况,他应当知道,假如苏联在古巴部署导弹,将会产生极其严重的后果。他向我保证说,绝对不会发生这种情况。说完就离去了。
我向肯尼迪总统、国务卿腊斯克和国防部长罗伯特·麦克纳马拉汇报了那次谈话的内容,并表达了自己的怀疑,建议发表一个明确无误的声明,表示美国决不容忍向古巴输送进攻性的地对地导弹或任何种类的进攻性武器。
接见苏联大使是在9月4日。同一天下午,总统用副总检察长尼古拉斯·卡岑巴赫和我准备的讲稿发表了这个警告性声明,并指出这一军事步骤的严重后果。
一周之后,在9月11日,莫斯科公开否认有采取这类行动的任何意图,声称没必要将核导弹运输到苏联以外的任何国家,当然也没必要运输到古巴。
在同一段时间中,苏联驻美国大使馆的一位重要官员从莫斯科返回,要我传递赫鲁晓夫给肯尼迪总统的一条私人信息,他请总统放心,声称在任何情况下,都不会向古巴运送地对地导弹。
现在,中央情报局派来的代表为U-2型侦察机10月16日星期二早上拍摄的照片做解释,我们这才意识到,苏联人完全是在撒谎,他们编造了一个弥天大谎。苏联人正在古巴部署导弹,而且一直在把导弹运送到那个国家,与此同时已经开始建造导弹发射场,与此同时,赫鲁晓夫主席却通过私下和公开的渠道,向肯尼迪总统做出种种保证。
因而,我们当时的主要感觉是震惊和难以置信。我们受了赫鲁晓夫的蒙骗,而且我们也在自欺。政府中没有任何官员向肯尼迪提出过,苏联人在古巴的军备活动包括了部署导弹。情报部门对未来事件走向做国家级情报评估,在1962年的四个场合就古巴和加勒比地区向总统提交过正式报告,每个报告都称苏联不会向古巴提供进攻性武器。总统曾在许多场合要求,对情报部门的这种感觉做具体评估。我们10月16日开会前做过的最后一次评估是在9月16日做的,向总统毫无保留地报告称,美国情报委员会经过充分讨论和审查,结论是苏联不会把古巴变成一个战略基地。报告指出,苏联过去从来没有在任何一个卫星国迈出过这一步,他们感觉到,假如在古巴走这一步,遭到美国报复的危险性太大。
在一项事后审视中,我们才得知,我们在古巴的特工发回过许多情报,显示出1962年9月古巴已经有了导弹。那些情报多数不实;有些情报中,未经训练的人员分不清地对空导弹和地对地导弹。不过,有几份情报却十分准确,其中一份是哈瓦那希尔顿酒店一位前雇员发回的,那人相信,圣克里斯托瓦尔附近正在建造一个导弹发射装置。发回另一个情报的人听到过菲德尔·卡斯特罗总理的飞行员吹嘘的话,一天晚上,那个飞行员谈起苏联向古巴提供的核导弹,口吻半带吹嘘半带陶醉。
但是,这种情报不能视作确实证据,不能提交给总统或政府其他高级官员,必须经过一再核对才能确认。回想起来,这么做也许是错误的。但是,同一项事后审视研究还显示,由于时机不成熟,美国不可能采取任何行动,即使是10月16日的侦察照片,也不足以让政府和世界人民确信,古巴拥有进攻性导弹。未经证实的难民口头情报自然不足为凭。
当然,重要的是揭露出导弹的存在,没等这些导弹进入待命状态,美国政府和美国人民已经得到了情报,美国可以及时采取行动。
在接下来十二天里,第一天上午在内阁会议室开会的这批阁僚几乎是不停地开会研究,而且在其后六个星期中几乎天天举行会议。除了我本人,称作“执行委员会”(国家安全委员会的执行委员会)的其他成员有:国务卿迪安·腊斯克;国防部长罗伯特·麦克纳马拉;中央情报局局长约翰·麦科恩;财政部长道格拉斯·狄龙;肯尼迪总统的国家安全事务顾问麦乔治·邦迪;总统顾问特德·索伦森;副国务卿乔治·鲍尔;副国务卿助理亚历克西斯·约翰逊;参谋长联席会议主席麦斯威尔·泰勒将军;国务卿拉美事务助理爱德华·马丁;奇普·波伦参加过第一天会议后,新任驻法国大使启程离去,由卢埃林·汤普森接替他担任苏联事务顾问;国防部副部长罗斯威尔·吉尔帕特里克;助理国防部长保罗·尼采。还有几位断断续续出席过不同的会议:副总统林登·B·约翰逊、美国驻联合国大使艾德莱·史蒂文森、总统特别助理兼美国新闻署副署长肯尼·奥唐奈。这些人构成的小组在那个关键时间段聚在一起,他们参加会议,发表看法,相互辩论,并肩奋斗。这个小组提出种种建议,供肯尼迪总统最终选择行动方案。
这些人智商极高,极其勤奋,极有勇气,为国家的福祉极富献身精神。他们每个人自始至终从未固执己见。这种无拘无束的开放心态是讨论所需的根本品质。其中有些人在一种想法的不同方面仅仅有小的变化;其他人的看法则天天发生不断的变化;在事态发展的压力下,有些人甚至显得失去了自己的独立判断和坚定性。
危机发端时,大家共同的感觉是需要采取某种形式的行动。但是,有不多几个人认为,在古巴部署的导弹并不能改变权力平衡态势,因此没必要采取行动。但是,在那个阶段,大多数人认为,惟一正确的行动是空袭导弹基地。我听到那些建议,给总统递了个条子:“我体会到东条英机在策划偷袭珍珠港时的感受了。”
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欣叶 御大福 芋头麻薯 180g

周销量 600+

$1.66 $1.99 83折
Yami
欣葉
2种选择
欣叶 御大福 芋头麻薯 180g

周销量 600+

$1.66 $1.99 83折

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