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大数据思维与决策

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大数据思维与决策

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*大数据时代奠基之作,SurperCrunchers的中文升级版
*《经济学人》2007年十大图书之一
*诺贝尔经济学奖获得者肯尼斯·阿罗,《魔鬼经济学》作者史蒂芬?列维特联袂推荐
*《纽约时报》《经济学人》《福布斯》《连线》《发现》《Protfolio》等十余家媒体合力推荐
有人在葡萄酒酿造出之前就能知道其品质的好坏
有人在看到运动员比赛之前就能判断出其现在与将来的水平
有人在购买机票之前就能知道机票价格的涨跌范围
……
他们是怎么做到的?
大数据时代已经到来,而耶鲁大学计量经济学家伊恩?艾瑞斯早在20世纪末就洞察到大数据浪潮的到来。《大数据思维与决策》通过讲述各个领域有关大数据分析与决策的经典案例,为读者解答了一系列关系到现在与未来的问题,如为什么谷歌和比你还了解你自己的喜好、医生如何利用数据分析做出正确诊断、教师是否要摒弃自身创造性为孩子提供有效的教育指导,以及政府、法院如何在推动信息公开的同时制定出有益于未来的制度和法案等。希望读者在阅读后,可以迅速在信息变革中把握机遇,充分利用大数据分析做出优质决策。
《大数据思维与决策》适合企业管理者、投资者、政策制定者、高校相关专业老师与学生等一切想走在互联网时代前列的人阅读。

Content Description

《大数据思维与决策》是大数据时代的奠基之作,耶鲁大学计量经济学家伊恩·艾瑞斯早在20世纪末就洞察到大数据浪潮的到来。《大数据思维与决策》通过讲述各个领域有关大数据分析与决策的经典案例,为读者解答了一系列关系到现在与未来的问题,如为什么谷歌和比你还了解你自己的喜好、医生如何利用数据分析做出正确诊断、教师是否要摒弃自身创造性为孩子提供有效的教育指导,以及政府、法院如何在推动信息公开的同时制定出有益于未来的制度和法案等。希望读者在阅读后,可以迅速在信息变革中把握机遇,充分利用大数据分析做出优质决策。
《大数据思维与决策》适合企业管理者、投资者、政策制定者、高校相关专业老师与学生等一切想走在互联网时代前列的人阅读。

Author Description

伊恩·艾瑞斯(Ian Ayres),计量经济学家、律师,耶鲁大学管理学院教授。他是《福布斯》杂志的专栏作家,目前是《法律、经济学和组织机构期刊》(Journal of Law,Economics,and Organization)的编辑,曾著有8本书,发表过100篇文章。

Comments

★伊恩生动而严谨地描述了定量分析和大数据决策方法的运用……社会科学家和商界人士在享受阅读乐趣的同时都可以从本书中获益。
——肯尼斯·阿罗(Kenneth Arrow),诺贝尔经济学奖得主,斯坦福大学荣誉教授

★在过去,直觉和经验主导着我们的生活。如今,时代变迁,游戏的名字已改为大数据分析。伊恩·艾瑞斯在这本奠基之作《大数据思维与决策》中告诉我们更名换代的原因以及变化的形式。这本书不仅充满了阅读的乐趣,而且能改变你的思维方式。
——史蒂芬·列维特(Steven D。 Levitt),《魔鬼经济学》作者

★《大数据思维与决策》向我们展示了数据主导的决策不仅仅给商界和棒球界带来了革命,它还是教育、医疗,甚至税收政策的变革之本。大数据分析正一步步重塑政府的运作方式。政客们喜欢吹捧政策,但他们在上任后很少会告诉你哪些政策成功了,哪些政策失败了。大数据分析主导的政策制定过程使得政府要时刻自问一个问题——这么做管用吗——这种制定方法显然会得到所有人的支持。
——约翰·伯德斯塔(John Podesta),美国Progress公司总裁

★伊恩认为,人类总是过于高估自己的直觉,而很少去倾听身边数字所发出的声音……书中很有趣的故事就是,伊恩和各位经济学家运用大数据分析解决葡萄酒评级、法官审案或失业率核算等问题……伊恩就是一位数据侦探,完成了令人惊喜的研究。
——《纽约时报》

★《大数据思维与决策》提出了一个有说服力却令人不安的观点,在未来的每一天,我们所做的决策都将依赖大数据自动做出,而我们人类的判断恐怕只能作为参考了。
——《经济学人》

★富有洞察力,且令人愉快!
——《福布斯》

★数据挖掘与统计分析变得越来越酷了……剖析市场、政策,甚至是运动,这些本该复杂、枯燥的东西都变得这么有趣!
——《连线》

★生动的、令人愉悦的……艾瑞斯娴熟地展现了数据分析在我们生活中的重要性,尤其是当技术使其以一种从未想象的规模发挥着影响时……
——《出版者周刊》

★伊恩·艾瑞斯真是法律与经济学的精神导师。
——《高等教育年表》

★对于所有的商学院学生来说,这不仅仅是他们上统计课程时的必读书。书中讲述了在经济竞争的环境下数据挖掘工作的普遍性,并且伊恩明显是在说服各位成长中的商业领袖要重视这种工具。书中有大量重要的信息,却很便于阅读。
——克拉克·哈德洛克(Clarles Hadlock),本特利大学教授

Catalogue

第1章 数据天才的时代
棒球界的奥利·阿什菲尔特
酒后吐真言
我为什么写此书
本书框架

第2章 谁在替你思考
eHarmony:大数据帮你找到另一半
用数据分析挑选职位应聘者、细分客户
比起消费者自己,企业知道的更多
消费者的反击
预测有多准确
Google:个性化数据挖掘
牵连效应
寻找“神秘数字”,杜绝欺诈

第3章 抛硬币创建数据
CapOne的掷色子试验
你正在浏览的网页是随机选择的吗
谁更有用,更有创造力
随机选择的作用仅仅是促进营销吗
别做白日梦,主动参与创建新数据

第4章 得数据者得天下
花钱是为了省钱
真正可以检验想法的“实验室”
时刻关注机会
充满机会的世界

第5章 大数据颠覆传统医疗
医疗信息数字化:对误诊说不
打破“医学神话”
搜索:超级大数据的最佳伙伴
数据决策的成功崛起

第6章 专家与大数据天才的王者之争
友好的跨学科竞赛
一本“引发纷扰的小书”
要有数据支持,不能“画饼充饥”
枪和游泳池,哪个更危险
有趣的测验——预测正确率区间
晃过的可乐是不是会喷出来
大数据天才与专家能和平共处吗
避免往冰激凌上抹烤肉酱
给“断腿”事件找到安全出口
新型大数据天才的转变

第7章 大数据天才的崛起
数字化生活
大数据交易
走出“数据竖井”
大数据天才告诉你,为什么是现在
打造“神经元网络”的超级大数据天才
“我们不拍烂电影”
打赢“书名大战”
无处不在的“聪明的灰尘”

第8章 谁将是受损者
小山羊能阻止偷车贼吗
教育界的激烈论战
我是谁,摆设吗
“小山羊”的反击
让人肃然起敬的“摆设”
你会从大数据天才那里买二手车吗
Epagogix的烦恼
当心大数据天才的礼物
正视大数据分析的歧视
没有隐私——忘了它
谁是约翰·洛特(JohnLott)
天才犯错了该怎么办

第9章 大数据思维与决策的美好未来
和安娜一起思考
未来的女人/男人
你了解教授给学生打分的习惯吗
可能的群体领袖
男性和女性的智商对决
帮助新手妈妈生出聪明的宝宝
时刻关注女性健康
在大数据时代安居乐业

Book Abstract

《大数据思维与决策》:
20世纪80年代后期,奥利开始在半年刊的简报《流动资产》(LiquidAssets)上发布他的预测数据。
最初,他在《葡萄酒观察家》(WineSpectator)上给这个简报做小广告,随之有600多人开始订阅。这些订阅者的分布是很广泛的,包括很多百万富翁以及痴迷葡萄酒的人——这是一些可以接受计量方法的葡萄酒收集爱好者。与每年花30美元来订阅罗伯特·帕克的简报《葡萄酒爱好者》的30000人相比,《流动资产》的订阅人数确实少得可怜。
20世纪90年代初期,《纽约时报》在头版头条登出了奥利的最新预测数据,这使得更多人了解了他的思想。奥利公开批判了帕克对1986年波尔多葡萄酒的估价。帕克对1986年波尔多葡萄酒的评价是“品质一流,甚至非常出色”。但是奥利不这么认为,他认为由于生产期内过低的平均气温以及收获期过多的雨水,这一年葡萄酒的品质注定平平。
当然,奥利对1989年波尔多葡萄酒的预测才是这篇文章中真正让人吃惊的地方。尽管当时这些酒在木桶里仅仅放置了3个月,还从未被品酒师品尝过,奥利预测这些酒将成为“世纪佳酿”。他保证这些酒的品质将会“令人震惊地一流”。根据他自己的评级,如果1961年的波尔多葡萄酒评级为100的话,那么1989年的葡萄酒将会达到149。奥利甚至大胆地预测,这些酒“能够卖出过去35年中所生产的葡萄酒的最高价”。
看到这篇文章,评酒专家们非常生气。帕克把奥利的数量估计描述为“愚蠢可笑”。萨科林说当时的反应是,“既愤怒又恐惧。他确实让很多人感到恐慌。”在接下来的几年中,《葡萄酒观察家》拒绝为奥利(以及其他人)的简报做任何广告。
评酒专家们开始辩解,极力指责奥利本人以及他所提出的方法。他们说他的方法是错的,因为这一方法无法准确地预测未来的酒价。例如,《葡萄酒观察家》的品酒经理托马斯·马休斯(ThomasMatthews)抱怨说,奥利对价格的预测“在27种酒中只有三次完全准确”。即使奥利的公式“是为了与价格数据相符而特别设计的”,他所预测的价格却“要么高于、要么低于真实的价格”。然而,对于统计学家(以及对此稍加思考的人)来说,预测有时过高、有时过低是件好事,因为这恰好说明估计量是无偏的。事实上,奥利确实证明了帕克对葡萄酒的评级系统性地上偏。
因此,帕克不得不常常降低自己最初的评级。
1990年,奥利更加陷于孤立无援的境地。在宣称1989年的葡萄酒将成为“世纪佳酿”之后,数据告诉他1990年的葡萄酒将会更好,而且他也照实说了。现在回头再看,我们可以发现当时《流动资产》的预测惊人地准确。1989年的葡萄酒确实是难得的佳酿,而1990年的也确实更好。
怎么可能在连续两年中生产出两种“世纪佳酿”呢?事实上,自1986年以来,每年葡萄生长期的气温都高于平均水平。法国的天气连续20多年温暖和煦。
对于葡萄酒爱好者们而言,这显然是生产真正柔润的波尔多葡萄酒的最适宜的时期。
传统的评酒专家们现在才开始更多地关注天气因素。尽管他们当中很多人从未公开承认奥利的预测,但他们自己的预测也开始越来越密切地与奥利那个简单的方程式联系在一起。此时奥利依然在维护自己www.liquidasset.com的网站,但他不再制作简报。
他说:“和过去不同的是,品酒师们不再犯严重的错误了。坦率地说,我有点儿自绝前程。我不再有任何附加值了。”指责奥利的人仍然把他的思想看作是异端邪说,因为他试图把葡萄酒的世界看得更清楚。他从不使用华丽的辞藻和毫无意义的术语,而是直接说出预测的依据。
……

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欣叶 御大福 芋头麻薯 180g

周销量 600+

$1.66 $1.99 83折
Yami
欣葉
2种选择
欣叶 御大福 芋头麻薯 180g

周销量 600+

$1.66 $1.99 83折
Yami
欣葉
2种选择
欣叶 御大福 芋头麻薯 180g

周销量 600+

$1.66 $1.99 83折
Yami
欣葉
2种选择
欣叶 御大福 芋头麻薯 180g

周销量 600+

$1.66 $1.99 83折

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