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Jingdong book

危机、挑战与变革：未来十年中国经济的风险

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Jingdong book

危机、挑战与变革：未来十年中国经济的风险

Name: 危机、挑战与变革：未来十年中国经济的风险
Brand: Jingdong book
SKU: 3110061751
Price: 30.86 USD
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努力避免系统性金融危机的爆发，以及一旦危机爆发，如何通过良好的危机管理来利用危机推动改革，是中国经济跨越中等收入陷阱的重要前提条件。

Content Description

国际金融与国内金融是不分家的，作者比较关注世界经济的长期性停滞以及主要发达国家货币政策的分化等问题。本书主要收录了作者的美联储货币政策的变化以及引发的全球震荡、全球停滞与分化中暴露的新风险、希腊主权债务危机的*新走向等方面的文章，作者认为中国金融系统性风险离不开对全球经济的研判。

Author Description

张明，经济学博士，研究员，中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际投资研究室主任，中国社会科学院国际金融研究中心副主任。

Catalogue

上篇全球宏观经济：停滞、分化与动荡

国际金融体系的改革与重建

改革国际货币体系，难度不小

结构调整应成为下阶段世界经济主旋律

主要大国应对危机的策略比较及危机演进的前景展望

发达国家货币政策大分化强势美元对全球经济影响几何？

欧元汇率有望趋势性走弱

汇率战与贸易战阴影正在重新袭来

警惕美联储加息可能引爆新一轮汇率战

本币贬值是天使还是魔鬼？

金砖与灵猫为何沦为“脆弱五国”？

新一轮新兴市场动荡的溯源与展望

在希腊问题上德国人做错了什么？

欧洲主权债务水平缘何创出新高？

卢布汇率剧烈波动的原因及对中国金融改革的启示

全球金融市场近期为何剧烈调整？

为何不会爆发新一轮国际金融危机？

当前全球经济的四大特点及其对中国经济的冲击中篇中国宏观经济：潜在增速下行、金融风险上升

探寻中国经济的中长期增长动力

中国经济新常态：内涵与展望

畅想中国梦：人民币国际化与国际货币体系改革

中国对外经济战略升级版应该关注的几个问题

直面“一带一路”的潜在风险

如何防范金融开放进程中的潜在风险

加快资本账户开放的八大迷思

城镇化迷局

短期资本流动与中国货币政策

银行间市场“钱荒”的根源及政策涵义

钱去哪儿了？

影子银行下一步

警惕互联网金融行业的潜在风险

当前中国政府应采取什么样的金融政策组合？

中国货币政策的难以承受之重

如何走出当前的宏观经济困境？

全面降准的概率正在上升

资本外流与人民币贬值

人民币汇率形成机制改革的进展、问题与建议

人民币汇率改革背景下的人民币国际化：进展与问题

中国出现通货紧缩了吗？

温州企业家为什么跑路？

如何破解温州融资连环套？

股市何以至此？将去向何方？

牛市还能持续吗？——从四个故事说起

反思股市震荡中的傲慢与恐慌

企业去杠杆与中国股市涨跌下篇中国金融系统性风险及其化解手段

中国私人部门的系统性风险：高杠杆与房地产

同业借贷已成为金融系统性风险的主要结点

未来十年中国主权债危局

中国会出现经常账户逆差吗？

风险是如何在部门之间传染的？

濒临失效的传统风险减震器

中国金融危机爆发的可能路径

未来十年中国经济面临的两大陷阱

如何应对中国金融系统性风险？

日本管理金融系统性风险的经验教训

何为资产证券化？

资产证券化的三个核心概念

流行的资产证券化产品

资产证券化为何会迅速崛起？

美欧日的资产证券化道路有何不同？

未来10年中国资产证券化大有可为

Book Abstract

巴菲特曾经说过，只有在退潮之后，才能发现谁没有穿游泳裤。很可能，等到退潮之后，我们才会发现，大家都没有穿游泳裤。2007年美国次贷危机之后，发达国家的金融机构如同“多米诺骨牌”，一张一张地倒掉，那时，我们还在隔岸观火。中国经济进入新常态之后，潜在的金融风险会逐渐提高。
过去30年，中国经济尽管有起有落，但大致保持了较高的增长速度。眺望前路，中国的潜在增长速度将不可避免地放缓。在经济下行时期，存在多种内在的螺旋形下滑机制。比如，越是不肯采用积极的财政政策，经济增长就越慢；经济增长越慢，财政压力就越大。再比如，越是去杠杆，资产价格下跌越快；资产价格下跌越快，去杠杆的压力越大。如果低估潜在的金融风险，可能会导致准备不足、应对失措。
此外，金融体系的复杂程度较之10年前、20年前大为增加。影子银行的规模急剧膨胀、混业经营日益流行、金融体系的对外开放程度显著提高、互联网金融野蛮生长，而与此同时，金融监管框架却严重滞后，完全不适应新的形势。2015年以来，股市、汇率等的波动加强甚至相互强化，充分显示了国内金融市场内生传染性已经形成。
在过去的30年中，质疑中国经济、预言中国将会爆发金融危机的声音不绝于耳，但每一次悲观预言都会最终落空。原因何在？其实，并不是说中国已经做得十全十美。我们身在中国，深知中国经济的错综复杂，存在着各种弊端和瓶颈。但是，所有的人都已经注意到的问题，并不是真正的问题；真正的问题是没有人预料到的问题。早在20世纪90年代，中国的银行体系就已经暴露出巨大的问题，从技术上讲已经资不抵债，但恰恰因为危机已经迫在眉睫，中国政府反而能够破釜沉舟、迎难而上、果断动手，通过注资、剥离不良贷款，以及后来的推动国有商业银行上市、改善银行治理结构等政策，较为有效地化解了潜在的风险。“成功是失败之母”，或许，正是由于这一成功的改革经验，使得人们会低估未来的金融风险。大部分人都不相信中国会出现流动性危机，理由是大的金融机构都是国有的，当出现流动性短缺的时候，政府无非是把钱从一个口袋，转移到另一个口袋。但是，中国出现局部的流动性危机并非绝无可能，当年的“钱荒”就是一例。如果再出现流动性紧张，我们还能轻易过关吗？大部分人都相信，从整体上讲，中国的资产大于负债，因此，财政状况仍然良好，即使出了问题，救助金融体系也有足够的实力。问题在于，西班牙和意大利的资产也大于负债，欧元区从整体来看资产也大于负债，但它们怎么会出现债务危机，而且银行危机到现在也无法化解呢？
经济学者的职责在于，对可能存在的潜在风险提出客观的分析。这会让经济学者的角色变得更不受人欢迎，总是像“乌鸦嘴”一样。“国家不幸诗家幸”，经济越是困难，值得研究的题目也就越多。“诗家不幸国家幸”，假如决策者对学者的预言能够听得进去，未雨绸缪，学者的预言可能就不会实现。
……

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