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Jingdong book

中国房地产周期波动与宏观调控

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中国房地产周期波动与宏观调控

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房地产周期波动是房地产经济运行的基本规律。经济周期理论是房地产周期研究的理论基础,而房地产周期理论的研究将为经济周期理论研究提供更为翔实和独特的案例与理论素材。改革开放以来,中国房地产周期波动呈现出显著的增长型周期特征,且波动异常剧烈和频繁。根据计量分析,中国存在周期长度为12年和3年的房地产开发投资中周期和短周期,6年左右的房地产需求周期,12年左右和2~4年的房地产价格中周期和短周期。中国总产出周期的变动领先于房地产需求周期,总产出周期与房地产价格周期不存在领先—滞后特征,而房地产价格波动领先于固定资产投资及CPI。房地产开发投资周期与房地产需求周期的联动紧密,房地产开发投资周期与房地产价格周期之间并不存在显著的领先—滞后关系,而房地产需求的波动显著领先于房地产价格的波动。经济周期和房地产周期的剧烈波动将产生巨大的危害,任何一种经济周期或房地产周期波动,几乎都与不同程度的金融危机或经济危机相关。因此,必须根据经济周期和房地产周期波动特征,制定和实施宏观调控的政策措施,适度熨平周期波动。上世纪90年代以来,中国政府直接针对房地产市场实行了五轮宏观调控,较好地发挥了土地政策、货币政策和财政政策等宏观调控的政策效能。住房保障是政府的重要职责,对于平抑房地产周期波动,具有不可替代的功能。
Author Description

高波,博士,经济学教授,博士生导师,现任南京大学不动产研究中心主任,国家教育部人文社科重点研究基地-南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心教授;兼任世界华人不动产学会常务理事,中国房地产研究会和中国房地产业协会经济政策专家委员会专家,江苏省房地产经济学会副会长,江苏省经济学会副秘书长等职;是宁沪高速等数家大型企业和上市公司的高级顾问和独立董事。出版了《文化资本、企业家精神与经济增长:浙商与粤商成长经验的研究》、《转型期中国房地产市场成长:1978~2008》等著作10余部,在《经济研究》、《管理世界》等正规学术刊物发表论文130多篇。主持了国家社会科学基金重点项目、国家自然科学基金项目和教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目等研究课题10多项。获得了部级科技进步一等奖、江苏省哲学社会科学优秀成果二等奖等科研奖励10余项。
Catalogue

前言

第一章经济周期与房地产周期:理论和现实

一、问题的提出

二、经济周期理论

三、房地产周期的内涵和事实

四、经济周期与房地产周期的关联性

五、中国经济周期与房地产周期的特征

六、本书的逻辑结构

第二章房地产周期波动:理论模型与计量方法

一、引言与文献回顾

二、房地产周期波动的理论模型

三、房地产周期波动的计量方法

四、房地产周期波动测度的其他问题

五、结论

第三章房地产投资周期:总体水平和区域差异分析

一、引言与文献回顾

二、中国房地产开发投资周期分析

三、中国住宅投资周期分析

……

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Brand Jingdong book
Brand Origin China

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