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中国建投研究丛书·金融创新·利率市场化:突围中国债务困局

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《中国建投研究丛书·金融创新·利率市场化:突围中国债务困局》讲述了当前中国正值转型时期,债务问题和利率市场化推进受到了广泛的关注。当前中国也面临着大量的债务问题,部分产能过剩的行业仍然占用金融资源阻碍经济出清,地方政府对于融资成本不敏感导致债务迅速攀升,经济下行周期企业盈利下滑尚未完全反应为银行的不良资产,房地产周期启动加上金融自由化进程引发居民部门负债隐忧,能否顺利的解决这些问题将决定中国未来数十年的发展路径以及资本市场的命运,这也是我们在推出债务问题研究的初衷。
Author Description

邓海清,复旦大学金融学博士,宏源证券研究所固定收益分析师,曾经在上海市人民政府研究室、上海市杨浦区人民政府研究室工作多年,2010年任职国金证券研究所宏观策略组,2011年加盟宏源证券研究所。

林虎,北京大学光华管理学院金融系博士,浙江大学理学学士,2012年进入宏源证券研究所,主要从事宏观利率相关方向研究。
Catalogue

前言
第一篇 全球债务杠杆周期
第一章 全球债务杠杆周期的分析框架与体系
第二章 经济周期理论回顾
第一节 不同经济周期的划分
专栏1 经济周期的类型
第二节 经济周期理论综述
第三节 改革开放以来中国经济周期分析
第三章 债务周期与资金成本周期
第一节 从债务到需求:预算约束下的跨期替代
第二节 明斯基的债务周期:金融不稳定理论
专栏2 美国90年代的新经济
专栏3 明斯基和明斯基理论介绍
第三节 债务周期的资产价格传导路径
专栏4 流动性陷阱
第四章 经济五部门债务的驱动和演进
第一节 经济中五个部门的框架介绍
第二节 企业部门:产能周期
专栏5 卡特的能源计划
第三节 居民部门:房地产驱动的周期
第四节 政府部门:主权债务危机
第五节 金融部门:银行业危机
第六节 海外部门:汇率与资本流动性冲击
第五章 全球债务周期:2002~2012
第一节 2002~2007年:消费国加杠杆的全球盛宴
专栏6 日本如何成为全球制造业强国
第二节 2008~2012年:消费国去杠杆引发全球再平衡
第三节 中国深度参与世界贸易体系
专栏7 全球债务周期与中国债务杠杆
第六章 全球债务周期背景下的中国债务困局
第一节 历次债务危机回顾
专栏8 价格闯关之后的严重通胀
第二节 中国当前债务危机的特点
专栏9 “四万亿”财政政策的十项具体措施
专栏10 城投债:前世今生
专栏11 影子银行的定义和历程
第三节 债务风险隐忧
第七章 “李克强经济学”助力走出债务困局
第一节 长周期上经济面临转型困局
第二节 供给学派改善企业竞争力
专栏12 硅谷奇迹重塑美国产业全球竞争力
专栏13 财政包干制下的地方政府乱象
专栏14 产能越调越剩:以钢铁行业为例
专栏15 调结构是一个漫长的过程
第三节 金融创新实现债务再平衡

第二篇 中国利率市场化进程
第八章 利率市场化的全球经验
第一节 千疮百孔的金融抑制体系难以维系
第二节 主要国家利率市场化的进程
第三节 利率市场化中的四个核心问题
专栏16 德国平稳利率市场化:全能银行体系
第九章 登峰之路:中国利率市场化解债务危机
第一节 我国利率市场化的历史进程
第二节 利率市场化与货币传导路径
第三节 中国货币政策转向利率走廊模式
第四节 利率市场化与宏观审慎框架
专栏17 英国:从分业走向统一监管
第五节 利率市场化与中国债券市场发展
第六节 结语:利率市场化下应对债务困局
后记
Book Abstract

第一章
全球债务杠杆周期的分析框架与体系
我们整体的分析框架分为三个层次,分别为债务周期,在债务视角下的经济周期以及影响收益率的资金成本周期,这是不同经济体内部的周期表现形式,不同经济体通过海外部门联系在一起。我们在全球债务杠杆周期的框架下按照贸易链条将国家分为消费国、制造国和资源国三类国家,同时按照货币主导权对全球资金流动的影响将国家分为货币核心储备国、夹心国家和外围国家。不同国家在贸易和资金流动链条上的位置都可以在这个框架下定位,帮助理解全球债务周期的互补和联动。
第一个层次是从债务周期出发。首先是债务水平的周期性变化,负债水平可以通过放松当期预算约束以影响当期需求,这是债务周期的起点。债务的波动造成当前和未来资源分配的变化,从而造成经济周期的波动。而债务水平的高低取决于债权人和债务人对偿债能力前景的判断。未来经济前景普遍乐观,这会增加债务的需求和供给,造成债务水平的上升,而这种乐观情绪可能来自于一项新的生产技术或者制度变革,也可能是长期稳定发展的经济带来的。加杠杆周期开始启动,债务增加需求,而一个经济主体的需求是另外一个的收入。企业的赢利增多,个人工资收入上升,政府税收增加。投资需求上升,资产价格跟随上涨,经济体偿债资质得到改善,借贷成本下降。由于预期回报率高,经济主体的债务水平继续攀升,就会形成一个完整的正反馈。长时间持续的加杠杆周期一般需要宽松的货币环境配合。如果没有足够宽松的货币,那么强烈的融资需求很快会反映为较高的利率,反过来会抑制融资需求的进一步上升。宽松货币的源头可以是央行不断释放基础货币或者是国外资金的流入。而宽松货币政策转向也往往是杠杆周期的转折点。随着债务水平不断攀升,预期回报率下降,经济仍然处于繁荣时期,但是各种收入增速开始下降,虽然资产价格仍然在上升,经济主体仍然可以持续获得融资,但是加杠杆周期日益接近尾声。去杠杆周期开始于债务水平过高,经济体的偿债能力受到质疑,债务的滚动愈发困难,只能减少投资或者消费,甚至通过变卖资产来偿还存量债务。大量资产变现造成资产价格下跌,传染效应下经济主体的偿债资质进一步恶化,外源融资更加困难,带来更多的资产变卖和资产价格的下跌,这也是一个正反馈过程。同时债务削减造成需求下滑,企业赢利和工资收入恶化,经济陷入衰退。从加杠杆周期到去杠杆周期的转折点往往是资产价格上升势头停滞,不断上涨的预期开始转向。这是一个典型的债务周期的表现方式,经济体在加杠杆和去杠杆过程之间循环。在债务周期的框架下我们着重讨论了明斯基的金融不稳定理论对于债务周期的含义,明斯基认为长期稳定的经济环境会自发地产生内在的不稳定,他将融资者分成三种类型,并详细地描述了三种类型的投资者是如何相互转换,导致经济体在债务累积中从稳定滑向不稳定的过程。
我们分析框架的第二个层次是经济周期,正如我们之前所说的,本书的特点是以债务的角度看待经济周期。我们将经济体分成五个部门,分别为企业、居民、政府、金融和海外部门。不同部门的债务循环对应着不同的经济周期表现形式。企业部门的债务循环表现为产能周期,开始于企业对于未来赢利的乐观判断,如果收益率更高则增加债务,收益率低则减少债务。
……
Introduction

中国建银投资有限责任公司投资研究院(简称建投研究院)重点围绕经济社会发展、市场趋势及投资热点问题,组织开展研究,促进学术交流,培养专业人才,提供优秀的研究成果,为投资研究和经济社会发展贡献力量。
《中国建投研究丛书》收录建投研究院内外部专家的重要研究成果,按不同专辑系列化出版,每个专辑聚焦于一个特定的领域或主题,逐步丰富完善。目前策划组织出版的专辑包括“企业管理”、“区域经济”、“产业经济”、“金融创新”、“前沿问题”等。希望通过研究丛书的编写和出版,为政府相关部门、企业、研究机构以及社会各界读者提供参考。
本专辑主题为“金融创新”,主要辑录在金融制度、金融技术、金融业务、金融组织等方面创新的研究成果。
本研究丛书仅代表作者本人或研究团队的观点,文责自负。文章中若有不妥、甚至错误之处,欢迎广大读者批评指正。

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