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Jingdong book

“十三五”与中国经济新常态

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Books Economy China Economy

Jingdong book

“十三五”与中国经济新常态

Name: “十三五”与中国经济新常态
Brand: Jingdong book
SKU: 3110207081
Price: 35.93 USD
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经过三十多年的高速发展，中国经济已不可避免地进入了调整期。用妥下流行的词汇表达即是进入了新常态（增长速度回落），因此必须实现供给侧改革（降低传统产业产能、去库存，培植和发展战略性新兴产业）。无论是新常态的增长率，还是供给侧改革的鼎新革故，都是一道难迈的坎。本书结合“十三五”发展规划，深入分析了中国经济存在的深层次问题，提出了全面的改革建议。

Content Description

本书由导论“中国经济新常态的实质及内容”和其他十四章构成，是魏杰教授的研究成果。内容包括：十三五时期的两大重点：调整结构与深化改革，回归新常态与跨越中等收入陷阱，供给侧改革的路径与方法，新常态下的大逻辑与新机遇，实行混合经济体制，宏观调控方式的改变等。

Author Description

魏杰，著名经济学家，曾任中国人民大学经济系系主任，国有资产管理局研究所所长，现任清华大学经济管理学院教授，博士生导师，兼任全国多地政府与多家大企业顾问，在宏观经济与企业管理研究领域成果丰富。

Catalogue

新常态下中国经济增长速度；
2.十三五时期的两大重点：调整结构与深化改革；
3.回归新常态与跨越中等收入陷阱；
4.人口结构、新常态与经济改革；
5.完善市场与有信政府；
6.新常态下的产业结构调整；
7.新常态与实现供给侧改革；
8.中国经济新常态下的大逻辑与新机遇；
9.经济体制改革的核心：市场决定论经；
10.经济体制改革的重要内容：实行混合所有制；
11.有效保护产权；
12增长方式的转变。

Book Abstract

中国经济新常态是指中国经济进入到了一个新的历史时期。这个历史时期与过去相比，有五个不同点。一是经济增长速度不同了，从高高速增长转向中高速增长了；二是经济结构不同了，例如传统制造业与房地产产业由支柱性产业转为常态性产业了，而新的支柱性产业形成了；三是经济体制不同了，由政府在资源配置中起决定性作用而转向市场起决定性作用了；四是经济增长方式不同了，从主要靠要素的大规模投入拉动增长，而转向靠创新推动增长，转向创新驱动了；五是对外开放战略不同了，从主要搭别人便车而转向既强调搭别人便车，更注重别人也搭我们便车，从单向开放走向双向开放了。
由上述可见，对中国经济新常态的讨论，主要涉及到五大问题：
第一，中国经济新常态的增长速度。中国经济新常态的增长速度是中高速增长。大家知道，我国年增长率在5%以上都算高速增长，但这种高速增长又分为三种情况，一种是5%到6%，即低高速增长，一种是6%至8%以下，即中高速增长，一种是8%以上，即高高速增长。中国经济新常态总体上是中高速增长，但具体年份又不同，例如“十三五”时期就是6。5%到7%。中国经济进入中高速增长是出口、投资、消费这“三驾马车”目前共同作用的结果，不是人为确定的，我们要尊重经济规律。尤其是应该看到，中高速增长必然带来三种现象，一是投资回报率不会象过去那么高了，二是资金价格不会象过去那么高了，例如利息要下降了，三是资产价格不会太高了，例如股份及房价不会过快上升了，甚至要下降了。总之，人们要适应中高速增长带来的各种压力，如果还试图追求象过去那样的高回报及资金与资产的高价格，就必然会出现象2015年那样的股灾。
第二，中国经济新常态的经济结构。中国经济新常态的经济结构要发生重大变化，其中变化大的是支柱性产业，原有的两个支柱性产业即传统制造业与房地产产业，要转向常态性产业，而新的支柱性产业即战略性新兴产业、服务业、现代制造业，将逐渐要发展起来，实现支柱性产业的转换。这个调整过程是痛苦的，涉及到“去产能化”与“去库存化”的问题，但一旦调整完成，中国经济结构将达到发达国家的水平，因而必须坚定不移地进行结构调整。
第三，中国经济新常态的经济体制。我国现有经济体制实际上是政府在资源配置中起决定性作用，这种体制无法解决权钱交易的腐败问题，光靠抓人是不行的，根本出路在于体制变革，因此，中国经济新常态的经济体制特征应该是市场在资源配置中起决定性作用，这种体制是权钱交易的“克星”。如何建立这种体制？关键在于深化改革，其中包括调整基本经济制度、改革政府体制、改革金融体制、改革财税体制、改革土地体制、改革供给方管理等。
第四，中国经济新常态的经济增长方式。我国过去的经济增长方式的一个重要特征，是靠生产要素的大规模投入而拉动增长，例如80年代靠劳动力要素的大规模投入，90年代靠土地要素的大规模投入，2000年以后靠货币要素的大规模投入，但现在这种增长方式已很明显不可能维持下去了，我们需要新的经济增长方式。新的经济增长方式就是创新驱动，只有创新才能推动经济增长。创新驱动包括三个层次的创新：产品与服务的创新、商业模式创新、技术创新。创新不是靠口号，而是要有实实在在的体制支持。
第五，中国经济新常态的对外开放战略。我国过去的对外开放有一句典型的提法，就是扩大出口与吸引外资，这种开放实际上是一种单向性开放，即搭别人便车。我们搭别人便车搭了三十多年，现在已经不可能再维持下去了，需要有新的开放战略。新的开放战略就是既强调搭别人便车，也更加关注别人搭我们便车，在别人搭我们便车中求得我国的发展。这实际上是一种双向性开放战略，既注重出口，也注重进口；既注重吸引外资，也注重中国资本走出去。这种双向性开放战略的重要举措就是“一路一带”。
中国经济新常态的上述五个问题，在“十三五”时期会充分地显现出来。“十三五”时期是中国经济新常态的第一个五年规划，因而“十三五”时期也是中国经济新常态的经济结构及经济体制等发生剧烈变化的时期，转型中的负面效应会充分暴露出来，转型的“痛苦指数”也会很高，群发事件也会增多。对此，我们要有充分的思想准备，要在转型中很好地处理这些问题，实现顺利转型。
我们国家在未来的“十三五”期间，战略性新兴产业是哪些？哪些产业能成为我们的战略性新兴产业？目前分析的结果认为，能成为我们国家战略性新兴产业的一共有八个要点。
第一个就是新能源。
新能源属于战略性新兴产业。所谓新能源是相对传统的能源而讲的。传统能源就是指化石燃料，就是地球表面的动植物埋到地底下，经过若干年的地球变动后把它挖出来具有燃烧功能，被作为能源，这种作为能源的燃料我们就叫化石燃料，像煤炭、石油之类就叫化石燃料。这就是我们讲的传统能源。
……

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