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Jingdong book

经济项目失衡、跨境资本流动和金融脆弱性研究

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Jingdong book

经济项目失衡、跨境资本流动和金融脆弱性研究

Name: 经济项目失衡、跨境资本流动和金融脆弱性研究
Brand: Jingdong book
SKU: 3110210421
Price: 25.85 USD
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《经济项目失衡、跨境资本流动和金融脆弱性研究》深入探讨了跨境资本流动不断动荡变化的背景下经常项目失衡对金融脆弱性的深刻影响。基于国际宏观经济动态学的理论基础，借鉴动态随机总体均衡模型（DSGE）最新进展，对金融脆弱性的基准理论模型进行拓展，将其用于经常项目失衡对金融脆弱性影响的理论分析以及数值模拟；同时运用大样本宏观经济数据以及微观企业数据对经常项目失衡、跨境资本流动进行典型化事实归纳以及计量分析，为分析二者影响金融脆弱性的机理提供经验支持；最后给出相关政策启示。

Catalogue

一研究背景及意义

二研究现状

三研究方法与主要内容

四创新及有待进一步研究的问题

第一章全球经常项目失衡问题探析

第一节全球经常项目失衡概述

一全球经常项目失衡的内涵

二全球经常项目失衡的概况

三全球经常项目失衡的主要特征

四经常项目常用表达式

第二节经常项目失衡影响因素：理论分析和实证研究

一文献综述

二理论模型

三实证研究

四结论

第三节宏观经济因素与经常项目失衡的调整

一相关文献回顾

二模型和基本方法

三实证研究结果

四主要结论

本章附录

第二章跨境资本流动

第一节跨境资本流动的特征化事实

第二节跨境资本流动的影响因素

一相关文献回顾

二贝叶斯模型平均(BMA)的研究方法

三模型设定

四变量、数据以及数据处理

五实证研究结果

六主要研究结论

第三章全球流动性扩张：测量及应用

第一节全球流动性的测量

一全球流动性的测量依据

二变量、数据来源以及相关计算

三全球流动性的测量结果

第二节全球流动性扩张对资本市场的影响

第三节全球流动性扩张的通货膨胀效应

一相关文献回顾

二模型设定、数据以及指标测算

三实证研究及稳健性分析

四主要结论及启示

本章附录

第四章引致金融脆弱性因素分析

第一节金融脆弱性的内涵

一金融脆弱性的内涵

二金融改革、金融发展与金融脆弱性

第二节金融脆弱性的影响因素

第三节金融脆弱性影响因素的多元Lo舀t模型分析

一针对面板数据的Logit模型

二模型设定

三数据与数据处理

四实证研究结果

本章附录

第五章经常项目失衡与国际金融危机

一相关文献回顾

二因果检验的研究方法

三数据和数据处理

四实证研究

参考文献

致谢

Book Abstract

在考察影响实际利率相关因素的模型设定中可以发现，全球流动性扩张降低了实际利率，具体而言，无论对于GLImkx还是GLIppp，全球流动性扩张的回归系数都显著为负值，分别为一3．96和一3．23，显著水平都为1％。该实证研究结果与当前国际金融领域的典型化事实是高度一致的。近20多年来，全球范围内长期的实际利率一直在稳步下降④，甚至在20世纪90年代形成了所谓的“格林斯潘困惑”（GreenspanConun-dmm），即美国所采取紧缩的货币政策对长期利率几乎没有任何影响。通过本节的实证研究，我们能够从全球流动性扩张的角度为全球范围内实际利率的发展趋势提供解释。对于其他变量对样本国家或地区资本市场的影响，除极少数变量未能通过显著水平为10％的变量显著性检验，在实证研究结果上基本与经济理论预测的方向一致。例如，以实际GDP增长率来看②，经济高涨对股票价格指数具有支撑作用，而经济增长率较高一般又与较低的利率结伴而行，这样，针对两个因变量不同模型设定中，RG-DP的回归系数与经济理论和经验事实是高度一致的。

本节通过构建相关指标对全球流动性进行测量，并且基于全球流动性测量结果实证分析全球流动性扩张对资本市场的影响作用。在研究结论上有如下几个方面：

首先，基于全球流动性的测量结果发现，在样本期限内全球流动性不断扩张，尤其是2005年以后全球流动性扩张超过其时间趋势。

其次，全球流动性扩张支撑了资本市场资产价格的上升，对资产价格的长期走势发挥了显著影响。

最后，全球流动性扩张降低了实际利率，为近20多年来全球长期的实际利率稳步下降提供了解释。

基于本节对全球流动性测量以及其对资本市场影响的实证研究，我们认为，对于宏观经济与金融政策制定有如下几点启示：

其一，全球流动性扩张是当前全球宏观经济和金融中的一股重要力量，由于其在不同国家之间跨国传递机制普遍存在，一国宏观经济政策的制定和变更不能不考虑全球流动性扩张的影响。

其二，全球流动性扩张势必对不同国家或地区带来冲击，这种冲击既可能是外生的，也可能是内生的，对于不同汇率形成机制以及资本项目是否自由化的国家而言，影响作用会有一定程度的差异，这样，在经济全球化以及全球流动性扩张背景下，相关经济政策如果采用一蹴而就式变革所带来的冲击将出乎意料。

第三节全球流动性扩张的通货膨胀效应

作为对美国次贷危机以及后续全球金融海啸的政策调适方面的反应，美国在2007年9月开始降低其政策利率，英国则于同年12月开始降低政策利率，而欧元区和日本中央银行则在2008年10月进行相应调整。西方主要发达国家放松货币政策对本轮全球流动性扩张起到了推动作用。尽管宽松的货币政策有助于稳定金融体系、支撑经济增长，但是，当前全球流动性条件及与其结伴而行的资本流量激增则对一些非本轮金融危机起源地的国家或地区施加了政策挑战，在这些国家商品和资产市场通货膨胀的预期不断增加。关注全球流动性而不是单个国家的流动性主要原因在于：在国际资本流动日益增长的背景下，单个国家的货币总量在解释本国通货膨胀时面临着很大的困难和挑战。Sousa和Zaghini（2007）强调指出，由于资本在不同区域的流动，全球货币总量使得不同国家之间的货币总量变化具有内在化特性，这也使得基于单个国家视角下难以解释说明货币、通货膨胀以及总产出等变量之间的关系。

……

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