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Jingdong book

智能化未来 无人驾驶将如何改变我们的生活

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智能化未来 无人驾驶将如何改变我们的生活

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谷歌、特斯拉、苹果甚至中国的百度纷纷投入自动驾驶技术的研发中。谷歌自动驾驶汽车于2012年5月获得了美国自动驾驶车辆许可证,特斯拉一直在美国旧金山和西雅图之间的道路上测试自动驾驶仪技术,苹果公司大肆招兵买马……那么,制造自动驾驶汽车是这些企业的目标吗?

从谷歌正在构想的计划来看,自动驾驶技术不过是一个开端而已。自动驾驶将改变的是金融、保险、交通、能源甚至整个城市基础设施设计。这才是它们的目标。以自动驾驶汽车为“引爆器”,未来不仅是传统汽车制造商和新兴汽车制造商的竞争,也将是IT、通信、电力企业乱入的“异种格斗技战”。

自动驾驶技术颠覆的不仅是传统汽车产业,也是所有人的生活方式。

Author Description

泉田良辅,2013年创建GF Research,兼任面向个人投资家的经济媒体Longine的编委会委员长。曾任富达投资调查部证券分析师,主攻日本的电机、网络、机械行业;任日本生命保险国际投资部基金经理,负责美国的网络与媒体行业。

著有《日本电机产业的成败归因》(日本经济新闻出版社)。

Comments

★智能并不会让未来闪闪发光,而是让生活变得更美好。信息技术的进步,带来生活的巨大变化。巨变到美好的过程,就是我们所处的时代。

——700Bike联合创始人 张向东

★我们想做的就是,要激发世界上最了不起的人都为其工作。你看自动驾驶汽车,有许多人因为汽车事故死亡了,浪费了许多人力。交通更便利,你选择工作的机会就更多,这对社会是有好处的,也许对经济也是有好处的。我很高兴看到这样的事情:一些很大的事情上科技能有一个很大的影响力,而且我们有信心我们可以做到,不管要对这项技术投资多少,跟巨大的回报比起来都是不值一提的。

——谷歌CEO拉里·佩奇

★计算性能的不断增强已远不止局限于互联网,与我自身密切相关的一个例子就是自动驾驶汽车项目。该项目的目标是实现汽车完全自动驾驶,不需要人为干预。我们希望显著提升道路的安全性,大幅降低交通成本,让无法驾驶的人也能使用汽车出行。我们深信,技术的力量可以让全球各地人们的生活变得更加美好,也能够让我们畅想未来10年、15年或20年的生活。

——谷歌联合创始人 谢尔盖·布林

★特斯拉是电动汽车市场的领导者,在自动驾驶汽车市场也会是这样,至少在消费者能够买到的这一类别车型里是领跑者。我们在自动驾驶上投入了大量精力,自动驾驶将成为默认技术,会拯救很多生命。

——特斯拉汽车公司CEO 埃隆·马斯克

Catalogue

前言

序章 自动驾驶汽车仍在历史发展的“入口”

会成为全盘改变制度的“起爆器”吗?

谷歌为何要制造自动驾驶汽车?

在“硬件与系统的战争”中不断失去优势的传统企业

对丰田创新的“幻想”

自动驾驶汽车是一场世界异种格斗技大赛。而日本只有丰田

第1章 谷歌并非只是搜索引擎。它的最终目标是?

汽车产业正处于竞争规则变更的前夜

连克里斯坦森都预估错了iPhone的破坏力

汽车产业的“战场”已经在发生变化

如何确保硬件的安全性?

“自动驾驶”分为两类

从谷歌的企业并购看未来预想图

谷歌的忧虑——广告业务以外的朝阳产业是?

Google X——谷歌的野心

第2章 打败谷歌的条件

按照汽车行业的企业规模来看,谷歌已居第三位

电机制造商失败的原因

将丰田作为日本制造业的行业标准,真的可取吗?

价值链的设计才是商业模式之所在

丰田其实并不“精益”

长江后浪推前浪

谷歌拥有许多革新人才——特斯拉的动向是关键

丰田的优缺点

丰田章男是否能将丰田成功转型成ICT企业?

丰田的隐患——缺少海纳百川的基因

第3章 竞争领域素来是从硬件转向系统的 ——战场是“城市”

自动驾驶实用化后,城市会发生什么

无人驾驶系统的设计师必须具备的条件

谷歌为什么会对无人驾驶系统产生兴趣?

城市设计规划的前景

美国的能源消费情况

谷歌的城市规划

亚马逊参与城市设计的可能性

Google Y——城市群设计

沃伦?巴菲特的智慧国家构想

第4章 革新是残酷的

“革新”的深意,还有人尚未理解

汽车产业是革新的最佳目标

“模仿”的成本

美国发起的连锁革新潮其实雌伏了20年

第5章 2020年,两个转折点

奥运会将成为城市设计的展示窗

在人口减少与老龄化的时代,需要“灵活”的公共服务设施

再看硬件的可能性

企业的生存三要素

尾声

Book Abstract

谷歌为何要制造自动驾驶汽车?
那么,为什么谷歌要制造自动驾驶汽车呢?
开门见山地说,这是因为谷歌已经发现,自动驾驶汽车将会引发“社会制度的改变”。只有自动驾驶汽车,才能打破现有的制度,按照我们自己的意愿,建立“更智慧的社会制度”。谷歌也正是看到了这一硬件设备潜在的重要性。
谷歌是一家高盈利的企业,但是就现在而言,它不过是一家以搜索引擎为根基的互联网广告公司。因此,谷歌想把拳头产品“ICT”融入“自动驾驶汽车”,以便在不久的将来当各种社会制度重新建立时,掌握主动权。
换句话说,被称为ICT巨头的谷歌公司,会如何设计汽车,如何新建制度,会给社会带来怎样的冲击,将决定它未来20年的发展。
过去,谷歌曾对智能机市场的定位作出过贡献。它参与设计了硬件。虽然谷歌并不制造硬件,但它开发和提供了系统(以下简称OS),使得手机和智能机的市场结构焕然一新。
放眼看如今的智能机市场,大部分手机搭载的不是谷歌的安卓系统,就是苹果的iOS系统。商家们多半基于这两个系统设计各自品牌的手机。
由于安卓系统是开放源码,手机制造商们为了打败竞争对手,会使出浑身解数以求得一手资料用于自己的设计。因此,为了能先一步开发出新商品,制造商们时刻与谷歌保持着密切的联系。
这就形成了一股强大的力量,影响着智能机的开发过程。谷歌占据了除苹果手机以外的系统市场,这使得它在手机开发商之间持有不小的话语权。
“安卓(Android)”名称的由来,原取自“完全融于人群中的机器人”之意。谷歌在2005年收购安卓时是否已经展望到当下的自动驾驶汽车以及机器人市场,我们不得而知,但它的这一行为都与10年后的今天,谷歌重视的一些领域——AI的自然语言处理领域、机器人等等,有着千丝万缕的关系。这究竟是偶然还是必然?谷歌的目标不仅仅是ICT,而是“支配包含硬件在内的整个系统”。
……
Introduction

当听到“自动驾驶汽车”这个词时,你最先会想到什么?
时下许多年轻人一谈到自驾出门就会觉得麻烦,部分女性也会因为方向感等问题而对自驾望而却步。老年人则认为考驾照是年轻人的事,即便有心学习也羞于尝试。
如果有了自动驾驶汽车,我想,他们的烦恼都能迎刃而解。
如果汽车有了自动驾驶功能,会给家家户户带来便利。可就现阶段而言,自动驾驶技术的开发还只是冰山一角。自动驾驶汽车将会成为“科技改变世界”的“钥匙”。这就是为什么谷歌如此执着自动驾驶汽车的原因。它运用其擅长的信息和通信技术(以下简称ICT)不留余地地掀起一场革命,试图实现这一梦想。
那么,世界将会发生怎样的变化呢?
例如,如果没有交通事故,就不需要考取驾照,也可以废除车险。
如果自动驾驶汽车拥有移动通信功能,可以像手机一样随时保持联络,那购买途径就不仅限于车行,在移动通信公司也可以办到。
更进一步,如果是电动自动驾驶汽车,那从国家电网购买汽车也不再是天方夜谭。油费被电费取代,加油站也可以拆除。
另外,既然是自动驾驶,我们的出租车上也不再需要“的哥”。
它给予了人类无限的憧憬——一个国家的监察机关、金融业和通信业、能源、电力、交通事业,乃至构成社会制度的社会规范及产业结构也许都会受到莫大的影响。
自动驾驶汽车的影响力远远不止这些,兴许连城市的定位也将随之改变。试想更多的上班族放弃原来的代步工具而改坐自动驾驶汽车。随着地铁的利用率大幅下降,城市规划中商业圈与轨道交通的标配设计也变得多余。不过从能源效率的角度来看,也许地铁还是不可替代的。因为当大批量的自动驾驶汽车一齐涌入市中心,就会出现停车难的问题。
这样一来,我们就会与课题“新城市设计”不期而遇。
面对这个疑问,谷歌公司的自动驾驶汽车相关部门已经启动了“Google X”等项目。他们在改进自动驾驶汽车的同时,把目标设定在了城市设计这一环节。如果总结谷歌收购的企业,可以发现其中包括人工智能(以下简称AI)、机器人、家用恒温器等等,不难看出些许端倪。
谷歌的野心也许不仅仅在于自动驾驶汽车这一个领域,可能是在整个城市。
正如苹果公司席卷了全球的智能机市场,谷歌的自动驾驶汽车是否也会像iPhone那样改变全球的汽车市场呢?事实上,随着iPhone的爆发性普及,许多手机制造商或改行或跑路。假以时日,汽车制造商不知是否也会面临同样的困境?
然而着眼于城市规划的企业不止谷歌一家。从电商亚马逊和电动汽车制造商特斯拉的动向中不难看出,他们对城市规划也怀有兴趣。
“硬件”、“ICT”、“能源”,是城市规划的关键。可见在不久的将来,企业间即将发起以城市为目标的“世界异种格斗技大赛”。
那么在笔者的国家日本,是否有企业可以与谷歌相提并论呢?
就我个人来看,今后想要在以城市为舞台展开的全球化竞争中与对手决一雌雄的日本企业,非丰田汽车公司(以下简称丰田)莫属了吧?具体原因我会在后文做详细分析。固然,丰田还有许多美中不足的地方,但谷歌也不是无懈可击的。

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