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Jingdong book

涛动周期论 经济周期决定人生财富命运

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天王理论对每个人的价值无需小编多言,仅以此套丛书献给苦苦挣扎于经济旋涡和迷雾中而感到无助的所有人!
周金涛的这套理论著作共分两本。《涛动周期论》溯本清源,严谨清晰地呈现了周金涛“涛动周期理论”的核心理论框架和逻辑体系。《涛动周期录》则详细记录了周金涛每次提前预测重要拐点时刻的经济原貌和判断过程。只知周期天王预言而不知天王逻辑,非天王所愿!周期天王过去所有神准的预言在《涛动周期论》和《涛动周期录》中全部有据可寻!周期天王对未来所有预言的理论根源和实际推演都在《论》和《录》中呈现!
除了现实价值以外,这套书也是可追溯可验证的不可多得的中国以及世界经济的研究史料!同时这套书也是可推演可预测,仍可用于今后经济生活的不可多得的具有实用价值的系统性的经济理论!

Content Description

周金涛先生,中国康德拉季耶夫周期理论研究的开拓者。作为大师级的策略分析师,从2008年次贷危机到2016年大宗商品年度反弹,先生对于大级别周期运行脉络的把握可谓千古独步,被人们誉为“周期天王”。本书的主体是以时间轴为线索将先生的重要报告和研究成果编纂成册,将其以经济周期研究和结构主义为核心的独特的逻辑框架和思维体系全面而完整地展示给读者。书中的内容几乎覆盖了包括股票、商品、美元、黄金以及房地产等在内的所有大类资产类别。依靠扎实的理论功底、翔实的数据论证以及严密的逻辑推演带领读者领略周期理论、结构主义与大类资产配置的完美契合。
Author Description

周金涛,曾任中信建投首席经济学家,证券研究部董事总经理。长期从事宏观策略研究,并在中国的工业化国际比较和经济周期研究、虚拟经济与实体经济关系等方面形成了独特的逻辑框架和思维体系,是中国康德拉季耶夫周期理论研究的开拓者。周金涛先生多次成功预测了全球资产价格波动的重要拐点。享有“周期天王”的美誉,并被网友亲切地称为“尼古拉斯?金涛”先生。不幸的是,这样一位把经济学研究如此精准地运用于实际经济预测的天才经济学家,于2016年12月27日离世人而去,从此世间少了一位为世人指点迷津的大师。

Comments

万般皆宿命,人生即周期。
——新财富金牌分析师乔永远

生命和研究的意义是什么?我们来过,爱过,然后像风一样逝去。无所从来,亦无所去。舍离一切执着,心无所住。
——方正证券首席经济学家任泽平

周金涛提出的周期理论,改变了国内策略研究框架,让人耳目一新。
——前海开源杨德龙

周天王驾鹤西去,经典与思想流芳世间!
——中国期货分析师俱乐部(CFAC)创始人董淑志

老周是个奇才,股评起步,但他开创性的将康波周期理论研究做到了。市场会永远铭记“尼古拉斯?金涛”
——广发证券发展研究中心总经理李兴

从业十余载,值得尊敬的分析师中,金涛兄当属值得尊敬的那个。
——申万宏源首席宏观经济分析师李慧勇

金涛才华横溢,策略研究只是其中一小部分;金涛的世界观与人生态度,有魏晋之风,思想的深度和广度都超于常人,可谓精骛八极、心游万仞。
——新财富杂志总编辑薛长青
Catalogue

第一部分 涛动周期论
1. 人生就是一场康波
2. 繁荣的起点——中国股市大繁荣时代来临
3. “色即是空”——世界经济的共生模式
4. 长波衰退中的增长与通胀
5. 走向成熟——中国经济即将V型反转
6. 结构主义的薪火——周期波动、结构演进与制度变革
7. 三周期嵌套——从熊彼特到罗斯托
8. 康波衰退二次冲击正在靠近
9. 人生发财靠康波——康波中的价格波动
第二部分 大类资产配置
10. 投资时钟篇:改造“美林投资时钟”——全球大类资产配置框架研究
11. 美元篇:美元破百,冲击中国
12. 大宗商品篇:世界大宗商品周期研究
13. 房地产篇:康波中的房地产周期研究
14. 黄金篇:康波体系下的黄金价格
第三部分 先生的言谈
15. 周金涛演讲实录:中国经济已经接近底部
16. 周金涛演讲实录:宿命与反抗——2016全球大类资产配置
17. 周金涛演讲实录:一波三折——周期反弹节奏研究
18. 周金涛采访实录合集

Book Abstract

《涛动周期论 经济周期决定人生财富命运》:
依照上述逻辑,只要美国的消费继续强劲增长,中国制造的机器就会继续开足马力,资源品出口国的资源也就不愁销路。而共生模式的基础是美元的信用度,只要美元的公信力存在,制造核心国和资源核心国就会将他们的大量外汇储备投入到美国,压低美国长期利率、维持美国资产价格膨胀,以及国民消费的快速增长。因此,美元的国际地位及其信用是共生模式的基础。正如艾森格林(Eichengreen)所说,如果外围国家对美元的信心坚挺,这种共生模式就能维持。因此,整个世界经济增长链条的维系或断裂可能很大程度上取决于美元,而支持美国消费和经济增长的前提是中国和资源出口国将大量外汇储备以美元资产的形式持有,推高美元资产价格,压低长期利率。
在明确了世界产业分工格局和共生模式之后,所谓的“金砖四国”因素说法也就不攻自破了,这些国家小过是当今世界产业链上的某些环节而已,印度类似于中国,而巴西和俄罗斯不过是我们所说的资源核心国成员罢了。总之,金砖四国很大意义上并没有超脱出现有的世界产业分工链条,并成为一个真正的增量因素,仍然与世界经济周期同生死共荣辱。
……

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