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定价的未来:改变一切的定价革命

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定价的未来:改变一切的定价革命

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博伊德博士在世界历史大背景下讲述行业发展史。他探讨航空业、技术、技术公司、定价历史和收入管理时,拿哥白尼、耶稣基督和列宁等来举例,让整本书贯穿行业趣闻,轻松易读,甚至还提供了一些有用的玩牌技巧!本书适用于各行各业,里面讲述的案例和概念更是具有切实的指导意义。不管你身居何处,只要你考虑过定价问题,都不应该错失本书。
——劳拉·普雷斯兰,微软公司行业解决方案部门总监
定价和收入管理科学正在革命性地改写公司的利润增长方式,在这本可喜的著作中,安德鲁·博伊德对这一商业现象给出了独特的个人见解。想知道亲身研究这一重要学科的先行者怎么说吗?请你一定要读这本书。
——罗伯特·G·克罗斯,收益分析咨询机构主席、《收入管理:市场占有的核心策略》作者
Content Description

《定价的未来:改变一切的定价革命》讲述了科学、技术和人的故事,它深入研究航空机票定价问题,并探究航空业的定价实践如何掀起今日的定价革命。作者安德鲁?博伊德曾获得麻省理工学院运筹学博士学位,是普罗斯定价软件公司的首席科学家——该公司已为100多家公司(其中包括许多航空公司和世界500强企业)安装运营了250多套定价软件——他利用自己多年的经验,为商界人士和莘莘学子撰写《定价的未来:改变一切的定价革命》,以帮助他们更好地理解科学定价的迅猛发展历程。作者运用第一手资料、采访、轶闻和案例等,讲述了大公司如何突破重重障碍(如销售人员不配合、科研人员放任软件出错等)。最终实现科学有力的定价的故事。
Catalogue

序言
第1章 酝酿中的变革
第2章 方法还是疯狂
第3章 计算机之功
第4章 新定价原理
第5章 挑好上帝,最大化收益
第6章 赢在概率
第7章 席卷旅游业:酒店、租车、游轮等定价
第8章 探讨公平价格
第9章 不懈探索者:科学家
第10章 定价现状
第11章 定价的多面性
第12章 变革在前方
附录
致谢
Book Abstract

第1章酝酿中的变革
一块皂的“正确”价格是多少?不是什么神秘物品,就是你每天晚上洗澡、送孩子上床前给他们洗澡用的普普通通的香皂。作为消费者,我们当然希望价位越低越好。如果发现附近的超市里正有喜欢的香皂促销——只要30美分一块,我们会喜上眉梢。如果是20美分,我们就会喜上加喜。如果只要10美分,我们便喜不自禁了!
但是,香皂零售商和制造商都希望价格越高越好。他们是定价主导者,消费者则不然。给商品定价比出钱购买难得多。你要做的不是“我买了”或“我不买”这种决定,而是“我该让别人掏多少钱”。
多数人很少琢磨价格究竟是怎样制定的,提供产品或服务的企业却整日为此操心。如果定价裹不住成本,企业就会破产。如果定价高,足以获得合理的利润,那么员工就会拿到奖金,股东会分得红利,股价也会一路看涨。
价格是如此重要,我们可能会想:企业总会在定价方面投入无限时间和无穷精力吧!事实上,企业的定价方法多数不够机巧,因而总是为价格担心。有时候,价格是成本加少量利润,定价者很少关注或者根本无视市场的接受程度;有时候,价格是行业老将凭着经验来定的;更多的时候,价格是从竞争对手那里“抄袭”来的。鉴于定价如此困难,因此,上述做法皆可理解。人们很容易觉得——总有理想价格存在吧,可真正找到它又是另外一回事。一位制定零售价格的商人曾向我透露:当他预测未来需求、制定价格时,会使用“天花板”策略。“我靠在椅背上,仰望着天花板,”他说,“然后预测就出来了。”
零售定价十分不易,如果再有销售人员参与进来,那就难上加难了。一方面,销售人员的佣金要根据销售量来提;另一方面,他们又不愿意跟买主发生无谓的争执,因此总想为顾客争取最低的价格,或至少是“合理”价格。遗憾的是,“合不合理”是他们在头脑里自己想的。当价格需要批准时,销售人员就跟产品定价经理申请,对方的职责是执行既定价格,但是同销售人员一样,他们也怕失去订单。销售人员常常觉得定价经理自我感觉太好,脱离现实;定价经理觉得销售人员太爱请客户打高尔夫球,还动辄帮客户出面索要低价。经理们常常是MBA(工商管理硕士),而销售人员学历低——或专业性不强,这种差距也会进一步僵化关系。
来来往往讨价还价的文件堆积如山,有的申请特批,有的发回确认。有一家公司,因为此过程太复杂,居然给一家大客户发错了报价单!结果,生意被竞争对手抢去了。发现这一点后,公司管理层急忙找客户道歉,好不容易拉回生意,但被迫降价很多,损失了数百万美元。有的公司虽然实行定价流程电子化,规范使用电子表,但依旧难以做到文件传递、工作配合等协调一致。
现在,收集和存储已售商品信息的技术十分发达,而多数企业采取的定价手段却是不科学的,这很引人注目。扫描枪读取价签,自动更新存货信息,有的甚至能够实现电脑自动订货。网上购物只需轻点鼠标,按步骤操作,几天内便可送货上门。技术的发展有助于企业做出更好的定价决策,可许多行业才刚刚开始运用它。发现机遇跟从机遇中获利,说到底是两回事。企业在改进定价时,可以寻找能作为标杆的成功榜样。
最成功的榜样是航空营运定价。近一个世纪来,航空公司一直在磨砺营运定价技艺。该行业诞生初期,管理十分粗放,回顾这段历史,可以看到当年飞行员们自由放任,管理者们抽着雪茄,在政府的航空管制下玩了多年权力游戏。然而,航空公司也是最早摆脱纸笔,开始采用计算机的机构,它们早在集成电路发明10年前就进行了电子销售。今天,这些努力看起来挺滑稽的,可是航空公司尝试使用记录订票机(样子很像糖果机)和“海量存储器”(Magnetronic Reservisors)——后者在史密森研究院(Smithsonian Institution)有展示——却让自己走在技术前沿。这些设备为计算机存储系统的诞生奠定了基础,并在航空管制放开后的价格大战中发挥了重要作用。在互联网时代到来之前,航空公司就率先使用电子销售网络,亲身体验了电子商务的巨大力量和隐藏的陷阱。
今天,美国航空公司(American Airlines)、联合航空公司(United Airlines)、德国汉莎航空公司(Lufthansa German Airlines)和瑞士航空公司(Swiss International Airlines)都聘用数学领域的博士来帮助解决定价难题。另一些公司则求助于定价软件销售商和顾问们,对方的工作人员也是博士。计算机日日夜夜处理乘客的预定信息,使得价格随着每张机票的预定和取消而即时调整。总之,航空公司采用的定价方法最为尖端。
飞机乘客们可能不乐意。有时候,机票价格定得十分古怪,让人郁闷生气。我们都能讲出好多自己发现的问题,或者是从甲地去乙地付出高额票价。我们还常讲到坐中部座位、升级到头等舱、常飞行里数等。当商务人士从世界各地飞到一起开始当天的工作时,“空中常客”们常拿飞行话题来代替常用的寒暄——谈论天气。
1997年1月1日,我开始研究航空领域。我拥有麻省理工学院的博士学位,在得克萨斯农工大学(Texas A&M University)工业工程系——该系在全美国数一数二一一担任长期教授,可我的内心却十分躁动。我喜欢研究多维空间几何图结构,现在依旧热爱,但是我的工作内容却变得越来越狭窄,离我想解决的问题很远。我有一位学生在一家名叫普罗斯(PROS)的成长型小公司里工作,他邀请我进去组建一支科研队伍,我便跳槽了。美国国家科学基金会(The National Science Foundation)一直鼓励教授们投身于劳动大军,获取实际经验,我觉得是时候尝试一把了。
我发现的东西超乎想象。到岗第一周,我就飞去拜访西北航空公司的总部,它位于明尼阿波利斯市(在明尼苏达州东南部),那个鬼地方,冬天天寒地冻,多数人都想逃走。我坐在出租车里,外面黑咕隆咚、寒气逼人,司机用电影《冰血暴》里的口音绘声绘色地描述冰上垂钓的乐趣。很快,我就抵达目的地了,马上钻进温暖明亮的屋子。我的工作是向陌生的行业讲述自己也搞不清楚的预测系统。幸运的是,我并非孤军作战,还有经验丰富的销售人员和熟知该系统的技术人员作为后盾呢。
对方的人员是副总裁、总监、运营定价分析师和西北航空的那帮博士们。讨论围绕着各种预测运算法的比较优势展开,话语中经常蹦出授权级(Aus)、数据采集点(DCPS)等词儿,以及其他耳生的术语。很快,我就明白了整个旅游业的运营定价人员都使用这套语言。看来,破译这套行话是免不了的了,而且在这初次交锋中,我亦窥到端倪,吃惊不小:讨论涉及的数学知识竟然相当高深!因为是科学家对科学家,有这番讨论不足为奇。管理者们通常不关心尖端科学,他们只在乎经营盈利,可这里的管理人员很是热衷科学,因为它是公司生存所需。
我在全球飞来飞去地出差后,对这种认知更深了。我去了法兰克福、香港、蒙特利尔、新加坡、苏黎世等地方,很快体验到业务遍布全球带来的真实生活。作为普罗斯公司的首席科学家,我的第一任务是确保所供软件运用的定价科学能够为客户带来最高价值,另外,我还要在销售团队拜访大航空公司时提供支持,赢得竞争,获取高端客户。20世纪结束,21世纪到来,商界对尖端定价科学的需求也日趋高涨。大街上随便拉一个人来,让他(她)听听定价软件的销售推荐,他(她)一定会如坠云里雾里,不知道你在说些什么。约束优化问题的多层贝叶斯预测和对偶乘数……我只能惊奇:要想赢得向航空公司销售定价软件的战斗,得先放几枪“拉姆达”和“西格玛”。这就是十分成熟的航空业出现的景象,它多年来一直在致力于解决定价问题。
我为有机会在定价科学里推广运用数学而欣喜若狂,同时,也愈发想了解这一切究竟是怎么发生的。此外,我还想知道航空机票定价的历史对未来定价有何预示。是否有一天,我们会发现肥皂的价格也会每分每秒地变化——是那些世界上受过最高等教育的人运用数学精算出的?销售人员使用电脑,不是查找别人制定的价格,而是根据历史趋势、存货水平、市场需求和客户特点计算出新价格?
种种类似的问题有待回答,但各行各业都希望能够早日找到答案。商业利润主要源自三个方面:首先是重新认识价格杠杆如何影响账面利润,因为微调价格可使利润发生巨大变化。譬如说,某公司销售商品,成本是100美元,售价为101美元,如果售价提高到102美元,需求不会明显下降,利润却会增加1倍。有许多行业原本不懂科学定价,但也开始调整价格,结果收获成功。许多时候,这些尝试是基于从航空定价上汲取的经验,或者干脆就是航空公司管理人员跳槽到新岗位上发起的。
Introduction

各行各业都有自己不成文的职业规范。我先是在象牙塔里待了8年,此后又当了10年教授,这几番经历,让我对写作学术作品熟而又熟:要使用第三人称被动语态,要使用专门的学术术语,要使用严肃的口吻……而且我选择的专业还要用上数学。作为学术研究者,要想在学术阶梯上一级一级往上爬,就必须遵守学术规范。
到现在为止,我从事商务工作的时间己长于教书生涯,因此,我的写作风格也不必遵循“学术礼仪”了。这一方面是为了需要,另一方面——坦白地说,是出于自身喜好:我爱上了简单、直接的写法,因为我发现这能更好地传达观点。写出的东西也许不那么精准,但明晰易懂。此书就不符合学术写作规范,我是有意为之的。
本书在传授知识时,不是通过公式,也不是通过常见的详细论证得出明确结论。相反,我运用采访、案例,回顾历史做法,讲述个人经验来教授读者。航空定价是我思虑再三的题目,我有意避开使用教科书和入门指导书那种写作结构。
我真诚地希望你读完后,能够理解定价领域发生了哪些惊人的变化,至于感兴趣者,还可以洞悉机票定价背后的非凡数学运算。我还希望,你能更好地理解商业环境中科学、技术和人之间的互动,了解企业在把科学运用到定价中所做的努力。当然,我也很希望你在阅读中感到无穷的乐趣!

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    2-Day Express (Includes Alaska & Hawaii) starts at $19.99.

Return Policy

You may return product within 30 days upon receiving the product. Items returned must be new in it's original packing, including the original invoice for the purchase. Customer return product at their own expense.

Sold by JD@CHINA

Service Guarantee

Yami Cross-store Free Shipping over $69
Yami 30-days Return

Yami-China FC

Yami has a consolidation warehouse in China which collects multiple sellers’ packages and combines to one order. Our Yami consolidation warehouse will directly ship the packages to your door. Cross-store free shipping over $69.

Return Policy

You may return products within 30 days upon receiving the products. Sellers take responsibilities for any wrong shipment or missing items. Packing needs to be unopened for any other than quality issues return. We promise to pack carefully, but because goods are taking long journey to destinations, simple damages to packaging may occur. Any damages not causing internal goods quality problems are not allowed to return. If you open the package and any quality problem is found, please contact customer service within three days after receipt of goods.

Shipping Information

Yami Consolidation Service Shipping Fee $9.99(Free shipping over $69)

Sellers in China will ship their orders within 1-2 business days once the order is placed. Packages are sent to our consolidation warehouse in China and combined there. Our Yami consolidation warehouse will directly ship the packages to you via UPS. The average time for UPS to ship from China to the United States is about 10 working days and it can be traced using the tracking number. Due to the pandemic, the delivery time may be delayed by about 5 days. The package needs to be signed by the guest. If the receipt is not signed, the customer shall bear the risk of loss of the package.

Sold by JD@CHINA

Service Guarantee

Free shipping over 69
Genuine guarantee

Shipping

Yami Consolidated Shipping $9.99(Free shipping over $69)


Seller will ship the orders within 1-2 business days. The logistics time limit is expected to be 7-15 working days. In case of customs clearance, the delivery time will be extended by 3-7 days. The final receipt date is subject to the information of the postal company.

Yami Points information

All items are excluding from any promotion or points events on Yamibuy.com

Return Policy

You may return product within 30 days upon receiving the product. Items returned must be new in it's original packing, including the original invoice for the purchase. Customer return product at their own expense.

Yami

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About the brand

Jingdong book

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About the brand

Jingdong book