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Jingdong book

动态随机一般均衡下中国经济波动问题研究

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Jingdong book

动态随机一般均衡下中国经济波动问题研究

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《动态随机一般均衡下中国经济波动问题研究》对每一章的模型构造和重要假设进行了详细的阐述，旨在为读者提供一个清晰的思路。实证部分第4章到第7章的模型参数主要通过参数估计得到，第8章开放经济模型由于我国汇率制度发生过根本性改变在现有技术条件下无法进行参数估计，在参数校准的基础上进行政策模拟分析。另外，由于实证部分涉及的程序繁多，书中并未一一列示，感兴趣的读者可向作者索取。

Catalogue

第一章 动态随机一般均衡模型与经济波动
第一节 动态随机一般均衡模型的发展
第二节 DSGE模型与经济波动问题
第三节 DSGE模型的最优货币政策研究
第四节 DSGE模型与中央银行
本章小结
第二章 简单的DSGE模型
第一节 RBC模型
第二节 新凯恩斯DSGE模型
第三节 非平稳的模型
第三章 DSGE建模方法
第一节 新凯恩斯DSGE模型
第二节 模型求解
第三节 参数估计方法
本章小结
第四章 动态通货膨胀目标与中国经济波动
第一节 引言
第二节 基本假设与模型
第三节 模型参数估计与分析
第四节 反事实仿真分析
本章小结
第五章 “金融加速器”与中国经济波动
第一节 引言
第二节 模型设定
第三节 模型参数估计与分析
第四节 信用摩擦下外生冲击的作用机理分析
第五节 模型的预测误差方差分解与历史分解
本章小结
第六章 财政政策与中国经济波动
第一节 引言
第二节 模型设定
第三节 参数估计与脉冲响应分析
第四节 财政支出乘数效应的敏感性分析
本章小结
第七章 石油价格冲击与中国经济波动
第一节 引言
第二节 模型
第三节 参数估计
第四节 政策前沿
本章小结
第八章 新开放经济模型
第一节 引言
第二节 模型介绍
第三节 脉冲响应与汇率波动性分析
第四节 福利分析
本章小结
参考文献
后记

Book Abstract

从第4章开始是本书的第二部分，作者结合中国国情构造了与欧美等发达的市场经济体相区别的模型，通过构造结构化的新凯恩斯DSGE模型，并结合中国的季度数据对宏观经济波动进行实证分析。
本书沿着由浅入深的顺序，从基本模型不断拓展深入。第4章构建了一个简单的小型一般均衡模型，将一个隐含的动态通货膨胀目标变量加入新凯恩斯框架下的DSGE模型，旨在研究通货膨胀目标对我国经济波动的影响及其政策意义。第5章在前一章的基础上加入了更多的新凯恩斯DSGE模型构成要素，如工资粘性、消费习惯、投资调整成本等等，并加入了企业家和商业银行角色。更重要的一点是，考虑了信用市场摩擦存在时“金融加速器”和信贷的“债务-紧缩”效应对货币政策及经济波动的影响。第4章和第5章的结论基于“李嘉图等价”的假设，即简单认为财政政策对宏观经济的影响为零。基于次贷危机后我国政府宣布“四万亿”经济刺激计划的现实，在第6章考虑了“李嘉图等价”不成立时财政政策的作用，重点研究了货币政策与财政政策共同作用下的宏观经济波动问题，以及货币政策对财政支出乘数效应的影响。结合当前原油、煤炭等大宗商品价格剧烈波动的现象，第7章探讨了石油价格冲击对我国宏观经济可能造成的影响以及最优货币政策的应对问题。第4章至第7章的内容局限于封闭经济下的经济波动问题，这与中国目前开放的经济环境并不一致。在第8章，我们构建了开放小国经济模式的DSGE模型，研究开放经济环境下产出、汇率等关键变量的波动性，以及基于福利分析的货币政策选择及汇率制度问题。
……

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