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一位股票投资家的良知:我为何放弃技术分析

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一位股票投资家的良知:我为何放弃技术分析

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《一位股票投资家的良知:我为何放弃技术分析》股票投资者从新手向资深转型的升级必备图书。
以亲身经历和独到视角,讲述为何放弃技术分析而成为职业投资者的心路历程。
采用当前投资组合作为分析范例,排除了事后选择的主观性。
涵盖了股票价值投资程序,形成体系,帮助你破除股票投资的盲目性。
国内首次对杰里米J.西格尔的中国股票数据提出异议。
国内首次详解彼得?林奇先提出的市盈率预期增长率估值理论,并加以改进。
国内首次提出护城河理论与估值理论结合,并正式提出中国特色经济护城河。
Content Description

《一位股票投资家的良知:我为何放弃技术分析》从全新视角对股票实际价值的分析方法进行了详细阐述,通过对估值理论与“护城河”理论的有机结合,解决了估值理论对未来无力把握、“护城河”理论受挫于股票估值的各自缺陷。进而讲述了实际操作上应该重视的具体细节,并以作者当前的投资组合作为具体分析范例,排除了事后选择范例的主观性,也因此颇具真实性,实现了与理论阐述的紧密结合。
《一位股票投资家的良知:我为何放弃技术分析》在国内浩如烟海的股票类书籍中独树一帜,扭转了股票操作上普遍的错误观念,为投资者指明了正确的战略方向,非常适合希望通过股票投资积累财富的投资者阅读。
Author Description

陈逢元,福建漳州人,职业投资者。潜心研究股票投资17年,对中国资本市场有深刻的认识并有独到性和前瞻性的见解。2005~2007年任私募基金经理,为投资人取得了丰厚的收益而广获赞誉。他不仅投资技艺高超,而且从业品德优良,在2007年的股市泡沫时期,陈逢元解散了亲自组建的私募基金,使得投资人避开了2008年的股灾。2006~2014年,在《大众理财顾问》杂志发表股票、基金分析类文章20余篇,被评为“最受读者认可的作者”。
Catalogue

前言
综述投资股票的长期优势
投资是贯穿我们人生的长久行为,投资标的的选择是首要内容,它决定了长期投资绩效的高低。根据杰里米J.西格尔教授的研究,以美国市场为例,在1801~2001年200年间,美元贬值93%,黄金价格下跌2%,国库券收益涨303倍,债券收益涨951倍,股票收益涨599604倍。

第一章 投资分析
第一节 公司财务分析
第二节 投资估值分析
第三节 市盈率预期增长率指标的应用
第四节 定性分析
股市巨幅波动,股价上蹿下跳。股票的真实价格几何?我曾在刊物上撰文指出,买进一只股票,就是买进一项经营性资产,而股票价格取决于这项经营性资产的盈利能力。只有公司的生产经营获得利润,且利润高于安全的固定收益类投资(比如国债或银行定期储蓄)所得,股票才有投资价值。因为投资股票风险较高,预期收益理应更高。而要收获理想的投资收益,关键在于公司选择和股票估值。在这一章里,我将就这两个投资行为的核心问题进行解说。

第二章 投资策略
第一节 集中持股的风险
第二节 组合投资
第三节 关于卖出
第四节 投资组合策略与优化调整(实例)
第五节 善于学习
第六节 独立思考
第七节 金融衍生品

第一章 已经讲述了股票投资的原理,投资者弄明白之后,选股就不再是难事。但是,投资股票还有重要的一环,那就是:市场是错综复杂的,总会有投资者难以预料的局面出现,我们必须尽最大可能地避开不可预知的风险,以求收获稳定的收益。这就需要运用一些合理的投资策略。

第三章 股票分析范例
第一节 中国神华
第二节 招商银行
第三节 贵州茅台
第四节 其他股票
第五节 组合策略
本章的范例,我不选择过去已经成功的投资案例。因为已经事过多年,对当时的思绪进行回忆总会有遗漏和错误;并且,结果已经明了,案例选择太容易了;甚至,受已经明了的结果影响,案例表述也容易有不自觉的、非故意的添加和掩盖。于是,我选择当前的投资组合作为本书的投资范例。本篇中,我将对该投资组合的选股思路进行详细表述。

第四章 其他投资文章
谁说买基不择时
买基正当时
私募界心声:高位炒股暂缓而行
亏损是怎样炼成的
套利交易不可行
房产的估值
商品期货投资感悟
我为何放弃技术分析
Book Abstract

《一位股票投资家的良知:我为何放弃技术分析》:
对于投资组合的分布状态和集中度高低,并没有一个特别理想的标准。每个投资者可以根据自己的风险偏好、经济状况、知识范围、心理承受力、选股能力设定自己的投资组合,这个投资组合还可以因环境的变化而进行调整。沃伦·巴菲特的投资组合集中度最高,前5只股票一般占据股票持有总额80%的比例;彼得·林奇的集中度最低,账户中竟然包含1400只股票,前100只股票也仅占据50%的比例。这两位大师的持股集中度差异最大,分别处于两个极端,但他们的长期投资收益率却非常接近。
我认为,对于以股票投资收益作为唯一收入来源的专业投资者来说,进取型投资者应该假设:第一重仓股意外破产,投资者仍然能够凭借其他投资维持生活,这样就能够控制单一股票的最高投资比例。保守型投资者应该假设:前二大重仓股或者前三大重仓股意外破产,凭借其他投资能够维持基本生活,这样也能明显降低个股持仓比例。我们可以以这种思路设定个股投资比例的上限。换句话说,当各项投资比例调配完成后,富有责任心的投资者每天都不看股票行情,仍然能轻松睡大觉,那么,这个投资组合就很适宜。
我个人的实践经验如下:
根据我的选股能力、风险承受力、财务水平等实际状况,大致设定一个投资组合的分布标准。一个投资组合,最少应包括3只股票,如果持股太少,达不到分散风险的目的;最多不超过15只股票,如果选股太多,就超出个人投资能力范围,很容易选进自己不能掌控的股票,反而增加了风险。近年来,我的投资组合一般含有4。8只股票。持仓的股票最少分布在3个行业,最多分布于5个行业或8个细分行业。单只股票最高持仓比例为50%,最低比例不限;对于兼具高度安全性、成长性和低估值的优秀股票可以放宽到61.8%(黄金分割线)。个股持仓比例在4%以上就应视为重仓(国外很多开放式基金单只股票重仓比例的最高限制仅为5%),对其未来必须高度确定。
再投资风险管理
在我们的投资过程中,即使收获了优异的投资成绩,这笔投资收益最终仍然是再投资在市场上。再投资的复利效应导致财富的几何级数增长,越往以后,财富的增长幅度一样,绝对增长量绝不一样,但是我们的投资时间足够长,意外总有机会发生。倘若某次重仓投资的公司意外破产,即使你之前在这部分仓位赚了成百上千倍的利润,也会连本带利一次性归零。我们必须高度重视这种致命性风险。
应对策略如下:
(1)年轻时候拥有的资金量小、投资能力差,但精力旺盛、求知欲强。这一阶段,你的风险承受能力非常强,不必害怕自己不熟悉的领域,投资组合可以在不增加交易费用的基础上尽量分散。这样,你会接触到更多的行业,学习到多种知识,投资能力与技巧快速地全面提升。
(2)当你年富力强时,思想渐趋成熟,财力已渐渐可观,并且积累了丰富的投资经验,风险防控能力强。这一阶段,你的投资尽可能集中在少数几只股票上,以谋求最高收益,使得资产最大可能地升值。
(3)进入老年,精力不济,风险承受能力减弱,但经过数十年的学习与实践,知识面广、投资经验相当丰厚。这一阶段,你的投资组合要回归分散化,运用战略思维,将资产配置到相对较广的行业和公司(可以包含国债、货币基金、银行储蓄等其他的高安全性、低波动性资产),设计出一个收益稳定、抗风险能力强大的投资组合,并长期持有。然后安心退休,享受无忧无虑的人生后半段。
德国证券投机家安德烈·科斯托拉尼晚年时期在《大投机家》一书中坦言:“我已经太老了,还要作报告、接受采访、给杂志写专栏、写书,没有时间关心自己的业务了。如今我持有500多只股票,一直没有卖,只是在买进。”
……
Introduction

前言
从1997年起,我在股票市场研究奋战十数年,走过很多弯路,也收获了许多知识,得到了许多经验,总结出了一套独立的投资系统。这套投资系统并不是我发明的,而是我大量学习了多位发达国家投资大师的投资思想,参考了数位严谨的金融学教授的研究数据,并以此作为理论基础,经过在中国股市中长期实战,最终融会贯通凝练而成。
一直以来,我有意将这套投资系统整理成书。但是,我是专业投资者,不是专业作家,写一本书远不像写几篇文章那么简单,这需要耗费大量的时间和精力。我经常会到书店转转,看到国内关于股票投资的书籍基本上以技术分析为主,基本分析类书籍相当少。我多了几分忧虑。要知道,发达国家证券市场经过几百年的发展,基本分析方法已经成为主流,技术分析方法因具有先天缺陷而逐渐被边缘化。国内各类财经传媒栏目,每每见分析师口若悬河、津津乐道的也都是各种技术指标,将消息作为基本分析的最重要内容。我个人以为,如此传道解惑将股民带入危险的误区,这是绝大多数股民亏损的重要原因。
我的孩子逐渐长大,日后接触包括股票在内的各种投资品难以避免。我下定决心,再大的困难也要把我的投资思维完整地表达出来。同时,用文字形式进行表述的过程也是对笔者投资思维的梳理过程,使我容易发现其中的不足而加以改进,因此写这本书也有益于提高我的投资水平。这本书将作为我的精神财富留给我的儿子和外甥,即使他们长大后没有从事金融投资业。但是,热爱读书、虚心好学、坚持己见、努力不懈的精神是本书的思想基础,这在任何行业都是同样需要的。
我相信,学习了此书并按正确的价值投资理论认真实践,门外汉、初级投资者也会避开弯路,跃升为中等级别的投资者;草根出身的年轻人也许能够提前十年以上实现自己的财富梦想。也希望此书能帮助在股市中一再亏损的股民认识股票的价值真相,及早走出短线交易的泥潭,从而走向成功。当然,读者若有志成为高级别投资者,必须在正确的道路上经过长期的学习与实践,积累丰富的知识与经验。达到如此级别,你就具备了攻守兼备的能力,在暴跌暴涨的市场中沉着冷静、稳如泰山。
股票投资绝非一夜暴富的途径,财富的积累需要一个长期的复利过程,越往后,相同的资本增长率对应的却是截然不同的绝对数值。年轻人有思想、定力上的劣势,但具有学习上的优势,更具时间上的优势。因此,我时常鼓励年轻人努力工作,理性进行股票投资。希望不要继续在缭绕的烟雾下、虚拟的网络中、奢靡的夜店里耗费着昂贵的青春;不要让自己用辛勤的汗水换来的金钱流进卷烟厂、酒吧以及众多KTV老板的腰包。很多人之所以成功,是因为他们从不虚度青春,总是勤奋努力勤俭节约而又精明过人。如果我们把金钱和精力用在正确的地方,那么将会得到更加健康的身体,收获更加充实的精神生活,同时也会拿得出宝贵的创业资本。
借用本书的出版,写下对年轻人的建议:不要每天下班后都去喝酒、打牌,你们的老板不会这样做,这是他们之所以会成为老板的重要原因之一。如果你们有更好的创业渠道,那就拿出全部激情去实现你们的理想。如果没有别的创富之路,那就可以把你们节约下来的钱都用来投资。你无须把钱财花费在所谓的时尚行为上面包装自己,睿智、独立、自信、谦逊会体现在你的眼睛和言行里,这才是永恒的时尚。
“聚沙成塔”的观念是用在投资上还是用在消费上,决定了你的一生是富足还是贫穷。股票投资不一定非得要大资金,只要足够买100股,一笔小钱就可以开始。我这样认为,即使遭受损失(当然,你不可胡乱投资),也是你的人生历练,由此你获得了宝贵经验,总比在不健康的生活方式中浪费掉要好得多。我在金融投资界奋战十数年,除了获得知识与经济独立外,还有额外收获,那就是对任何针对个人的经济欺诈手段都能一眼识穿。
本书的特点是:用简洁的语言在实践中诠释价值投资理论,各章节环环相扣,形成完整的投资体系,实用性很强。我把17年的投资经验倾力授出,希望能帮助投资者实现属于自己的财富梦想!
陈逢元

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Yami gift card balance does not have to be used up at once;

All rights reserved by Yami.

Return Policy

Gift card that has already been consumed is non-refundable.

Sold by JD@CHINA

Service Guarantee

Yami Free Shipping over $49
Yami Easy Returns
Yami Ships from United States

Shipping

  • United States

    Standard Shipping is $5.99 (Excluding Alaska & Hawaii). Free on orders of $49 or more.

    Local Express is $5.99 (Available in Parts of CA, NJ, MA & PA). Free on orders of $49 or more.

    2-Day Express (Includes Alaska & Hawaii) starts at $19.99.

Return Policy

You may return product within 30 days upon receiving the product. Items returned must be new in it's original packing, including the original invoice for the purchase. Customer return product at their own expense.

Sold by JD@CHINA

Service Guarantee

Yami Cross-store Free Shipping over $69
Yami 30-days Return

Yami-China FC

Yami has a consolidation warehouse in China which collects multiple sellers’ packages and combines to one order. Our Yami consolidation warehouse will directly ship the packages to your door. Cross-store free shipping over $69.

Return Policy

You may return products within 30 days upon receiving the products. Sellers take responsibilities for any wrong shipment or missing items. Packing needs to be unopened for any other than quality issues return. We promise to pack carefully, but because goods are taking long journey to destinations, simple damages to packaging may occur. Any damages not causing internal goods quality problems are not allowed to return. If you open the package and any quality problem is found, please contact customer service within three days after receipt of goods.

Shipping Information

Yami Consolidation Service Shipping Fee $9.99(Free shipping over $69)

Sellers in China will ship their orders within 1-2 business days once the order is placed. Packages are sent to our consolidation warehouse in China and combined there. Our Yami consolidation warehouse will directly ship the packages to you via UPS. The average time for UPS to ship from China to the United States is about 10 working days and it can be traced using the tracking number. Due to the pandemic, the delivery time may be delayed by about 5 days. The package needs to be signed by the guest. If the receipt is not signed, the customer shall bear the risk of loss of the package.

Sold by JD@CHINA

Service Guarantee

Free shipping over 69
Genuine guarantee

Shipping

Yami Consolidated Shipping $9.99(Free shipping over $69)


Seller will ship the orders within 1-2 business days. The logistics time limit is expected to be 7-15 working days. In case of customs clearance, the delivery time will be extended by 3-7 days. The final receipt date is subject to the information of the postal company.

Yami Points information

All items are excluding from any promotion or points events on Yamibuy.com

Return Policy

You may return product within 30 days upon receiving the product. Items returned must be new in it's original packing, including the original invoice for the purchase. Customer return product at their own expense.

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About the brand

Jingdong book

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About the brand

Jingdong book