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李大霄:投资战略(第二版)

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李大霄:投资战略(第二版)

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本书为知名投资大师李大霄从事证券行业二十余年来的投资心得,谈人性、谈价值投资,谈为什么要找到一个适合自己的投资方式,谈股市的财富是如何转移的,告诉普通投资者,投资一定要理性,这是成功的前提。
Author Description

李大霄,现任中国证券业协会证券分析师与投资顾问专业委员会委员、上海证券交易所专家库成员、新华社瞭望智库成员、北京电视台智库成员、英大证券首席经济学家、英大证券研究所所长等,曾经获中国证券业协会多个奖项:上海证券报坚持不懈奖、中金在线颁发的最独立客观分析师奖、颇具社会责任评论家奖、很受欢迎独立评论家奖等。坚持客观与真实,不受专业与商业利益所左右,坚持研究独立性,多次成功预测市场。其代表性观点如下:6124需要淡泊,1664需要勇气;2132是“钻石底”,5178是“地球顶”。
主要研究成果及著作:
2007年11月在中国证券报发表《A股长期估值顶部可能已经形成》
2008年10月在中国证券报发表《A股融冰之旅已经启程》
2010年出版《越过人性——穿越牛熊的投资智慧》
2011年出版《李大霄投资战略》
2014年在上海证券报发表《A股真实牛市启程》
2015年6月16号接受金融界采访发布观点《李大霄:烙定5178点“地球顶”A股泡沫越过历史》
Comments

投资不同于赌博,成功不是靠运气,而是靠知识。
——经济学家茅于轼

人性不变,周期不改。越过人性,笑看人生,最后的胜利者永远都是乐观者。
——全国政协委员、中央财经大学证券期货研究所所长贺强

找到适合自己的,才是盈利之道。投资切忌人云亦云,每个人的资金状况、承受风险的能力、操作技术等不同,就会有不同的策略。本书用朴实的语言,讲述了一种同样朴实但很有实效的思想。
——中央财经大学金融学院教授、中国银行业研究中心主任郭田勇

良好的心态对于成功非常重要。证券市场中,如果不把股票卖出去,涨跌都是虚幻。用良好的心态面对它,把眼光放长远些,投资的胜算又要大出很多。
——华夏时报总编辑水皮

大霄的书讲的其实是投资哲学。只要你抱定“信心、耐心、平常心”,一以贯之,最简单的策略或许就能获利。但能做到人很少。无数经验证明,大凡以“求欢”的心态进入市场的人,最终都是输家。
——中国社会科学院金融重点实验室主任刘煜辉
Catalogue

序言: 投资如做人 品德与技术并重(叶檀)/1
第一部分 适合自己的, 才是好的
投资品种的选择与风险偏好/3
做投资决策首先要"不差钱/5
投资,还是投机?/9
坐轿子还是抬轿子/11
财富是如何转移的?/13
交易的最高境界:少交易/17
市场的博弈: 比体力,比智力/19
股市赚钱的概率:你必须考全班前5名/21
股票市场的生命周期/23
我心中的巴菲特:价值投资的典范/26
"投机大鳄"索罗斯:风险追逐者/32
"超人" 李嘉诚: 稳健中求发展/35
第二部分!判断大势的风向标
股市灵验的四大风向标/39
把眼光更多地放在其他市场/32
政策动向需要引起高度关注/46
全流通格局是重大利好/47
估值水平偏高预示摘"熟苹果"/49
碰到重大历史事件: 要有提前量/51
谈谈B股/53
第三部分!有时需淡泊, 有时需勇气
讲与听/59
警惕"舆论一边倒"/62
要承受住不被认同的孤独/65
在股市里$混% 要经得住折腾/68
股票市场的墨菲定律/70
追涨杀跌/72
淡泊和勇气/73
乐观者才能在股市中胜出/74
坚持是一件非常艰难的事情/76
把钱交给对社会有正面作用的公司/77
第四部分 股市杂谈
谈谈投资方法与社会效率/81
怎样正确选择和理解股票评论/82
赌经济还是赌政策?/86
关于我----风格和追求/87
天很冷,但不会永远/89
牛市和熊市的回忆/90
在股票低迷时家庭支持尤为重要/94
恐惧踏空还是恐惧套牢?/95
一家之言/97
买大公司还是小公司?/98
股市低迷时不要失去信心/99
用血汗钱别玩股指期货/100
第五部分 我眼中的大势
判断市场稳定的五大信号/103
危机中的投资/106
对待创业板/109
创业板的七个思考/111
坚持就是胜利/113
大跌自有原因/122
"跌跌"不休,何时是尽头?/135
股市横盘需耐心/146
第六部分 媒体聚焦
股市中& 大部分的观点往往是错的/151
现在是股市带来希望的时刻/157
三年来& !--.准确的方法论/164
最简单投资法# 不折腾/168
五大逻辑支撑$地球顶% 的判断/170
附录 "钻石底" 到"地球顶"
A股逐渐步入长期投资起点/174
市场有望"稳"中回升/179
A股真实牛市启程/220
后记/231

Book Abstract

投资品种的选择与风险偏好
投资品种的选择有很多。有高风险的, 有低风险的,根据自己的投资特点,你想挣多少钱,这是有很多区别的。高风险有什么, 中风险有什么,低风险有什么, 极低风险有什么;什么东西好,什么东西不好。这些都没有一个统一的标准。只能说哪种品种适合哪类投资人。
具体来说" 投资品种大体上可以分为下面几种:
极高收益高风险:高杠杆特性产品如期货、外汇、权证;高收益高风险:三板、创业板、 三线股、二线股;中收益中风险:蓝筹股、股票型基金、指数型基金、混合型基金;低收益低风险:国家债券、企业债券、债券型基金、保险产品;极低收益极低风险: 货币型基金、银行存款;股民的风险意识、风险偏好和风险控制行为, 均与炒股业绩之间存在显著的正相关关系。也就是说,总体看来,风险控制行为能力越强、 风险偏好和风险意识越高的散户,炒股业绩越好。进一步把股民的风险意识、风险偏好和风险控制行为划分为高、中和低三个水平(以平均值±1个标准差为单位)结果发现,不同风险意识、风险偏好和风险控制行为特质水平的散户,在炒股业绩上的确存在差异。
其中, 随着散户的风险控制行为和风险偏好由低到高,他们的炒股业绩也越来越好;而在风险意识方面" 我们的研究发现" 中等强度风险意识的散户的炒股业绩最好。
年龄也是影响投资决策的重要因素。你有没有考虑过这个问题,你的年龄是多少岁,你选择什么样的投资策略,你想挣多长时间的钱,你想挣多少,这些都是很重要的。你是什么年纪,适合什么样的产品,这是第一个应该考虑的问题。
很多人推荐股票,推荐投资产品,没有考虑这个因素。他说:“ 你不理财,财不理你。”确实,但他有没有考虑过这个产品是否适合这个人,包括香港出现的投资者起诉雷曼兄弟事件。这些产品适合什么人"他没有正确清晰的判断。
首先大家要把高风险、中风险、低风险搞清楚。所谓大的判断标准是杠杆率不同,杠杆率越高,风险越高,杠杆率越低风险越低。
外汇的杠杆率是多少?最高是400倍! 到底合适不合适,分多少财产在这里,占资金的比例是多少,占资产的比例是多少?关于这些问题非常重要的一点, 是你的风险一定不要超过你的资产。400倍是什么概念,你的资产是1,它波动的是,400 倍, 你的资产和风险( 波动率) 一定要匹配。
我本人的认识是这样:你能把你的财富管理好就很不错了。当你的财富是1 拿400倍的东西放大的话,你需要有能力管,400倍的财富! 股指期货大概是6到12倍,也有可能是8倍! 我认为要把你的杠杆控制到1倍以下,可能要比,1 倍以上安全!1倍就很不错了,你买股票,1664点买进去,你不管它,现在有可能已经是N倍了!
N倍的概念是什么?比如说你买股票挣了5倍,假设平均年龄是50 岁, 5倍的话已经比别人多活了250 年! 这是很了不起的。也就是说,你挣钱的年龄已经是300岁了,因为你把,50 年的积累放进去的话,已经挣了,300 年的钱! 所以杠杆一定不要放的太大。
这次金融风暴出现的问题是什么?就是因为杠杆太大,美国人是20-30倍,欧洲人是,40-50 倍,结果出了问题。我们现在还没有杠杆,我们有了杠杆的时候就是很了不起的事情。
……

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