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Jingdong book

基于大数据和专家知识的人工智能前沿基础理论

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基于大数据和专家知识的人工智能前沿基础理论

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人工智能是国际学术界热门的话题之一。在大数据到来以及贝叶斯网络风靡于世界之时,中国人工智能学会及时组织了本次沙龙。探讨内容包括“动态不确定因果图的新进展”“智能科学中的不确定性研究”“基于贝叶斯网络的数据分类内在属性研究”等前沿理论。并就大数据时代背景下我国车联网与机器人联网、机器人产业现状及发展趋势、自动化与机器人技术融合、智能产品的“智商”评定、新一代机器人共性技术等关键性问题展开了探讨,从不同角度阐述当前我国信息化向智能化高端领域迈进的产业创新与市场融合带来的变化和思考,以及机器人为主导的国家战略新兴领域取得的新成果、新进展。
Author Description

中国科学技术协会(CAST),是中国科学技术工作者的群众组织,由全国学会、协会、研究会和地方科协组成,组织系统横向跨越绝大部分自然科学学科和大部分产业部门,是一个具有较大覆盖面的网络型组织体系。1958年9月,经党中央批准,全国科联和全国科普合并成立中国科学技术协会。
Catalogue

报告一 动态不确定因果图的联合概率分布基础及其他
报告二 智能驾驶中的不确定性
报告三 心智计算
报告四 基于群智能搜索的贝叶斯网结构学习方法研究
报告五 从联合概率的链规则谈起
专家简介
Introduction

学术沙龙是争鸣和传播前沿科技思想,尤其是原始创新性学术思想的一种有效形式。本次沙龙在上次成功举办的基础上,进一步深化提高,各位参会者对演讲者介绍的内容有了更透彻的理解,并产生了更多的思想启迪。应该说,这样的沙龙在当下的中国科技界是亟需的。
之所以说亟需,是因为当前我国科技界更多的是在跟踪国外的理论和技术,做各种延伸性或差异性的研究,自己原创性的东西并不多。2006年国务院颁布的《国家中长期科学和技术发展规划纲要》总结了我国科技创新的三种模式:原始创新、集成创新、引进消化吸收后的再创新。其中原始创新放在第一位,其重要性不言而喻。然而,近几十年来,我国科技界的原始创新却鲜有作为。笔者以为,这正是著名的“钱学森之问”的根源所在,因为没有原始创新,何来国际大师?
原始创新在当下的中国实在太难了。首先是萌发原始创新的思想本身难。这需要对所研究的领域有深厚的积淀、对待解决的学术问题有充分的了解,更需要沉下心来冥想苦思、创新思维、反复推敲,提出原创性的解决方案。其周期也许数年、数十年,也许毕其一生无功而返。当然,具备原创性思维的能力是不可或缺的;否则谁都可以搞原始创新,原始创新也就不稀罕了。但中国原始创新的难还在于其外部环境的不够友善、内在文化的缺乏包容。
外在环境的不够友善主要体现在我国的科技政策和管理方式实际上更多地倾向于支持在别人已经挖的坑里继续刨坑,因为这容易得到同行评议的理解和认可,也就容易获得各种科技资源、荣誉或头衔,发表论文也更容易。如果是原创性的,通常就意味着同行的不理解,至少是暂时的不理解。在当下中国的科技政策和管理方式下,这种不理解或暂时的不理解就足以摧毁原始创新所需的条件。于是,利用业余时间和其他项目的资金来支持或以无米之炊的方式来做原始创新,就成为我国科技界部分原始创新活动的无奈选择,其成功的数量少也就不足为奇了。更有甚者,我国的各种考评制度都更看重在国外发表SCI论文。其实,科技界本来就是百家争鸣之地,各种学术期刊多是各个山头门派的阵地,代表着不同的学术圈。惟其如此,才有学术的争鸣与繁荣。但遗憾的是,我国自己的学术期刊却不被国内的科技界和管理机构认可,一定要得到外国的期刊、国外的学术圈认可才行。当然,这也事出有因,不能全然责怪我国的科技界和管理机构。然而,作为原始创新的产物,要得到国内同行的认可本就很难,要得到国外同行的认可就更难了。这或许就是中国学者在国外比较容易成功,而在国内却很难成功的原因之一吧。以我自己的经历来看,在国内发表SCI论文就比在国外的时候难多了。
内在文化的缺乏包容主要体现在我国学术界对外国科技水平的崇拜和对自己原始创新的怀疑。本来,质疑是创新的动力之一。遗憾的是,我们在对国内原始创新质疑足够多的同时,认真的了解和探讨却很少,鼓励和宽容更少,建设性的建议尤其少。再加上用户宁愿选择国外的技术方案,以免承担采用国内原始创新技术方案失败的风险,就使得原始创新在中国非常困难。据笔者所知,早期的华为和中兴也存在墙内开花墙外香的情况:先打开国外市场,然后才在国内立住脚。与此相反,国外的新技术往往先在其国内获得成功应用,然后才走向世界。这种文化上的差异应当说是造成中国原始创新难的重要原因之一。特别是对具有国资背景的用户来说,采用外国的技术方案失败了,是情有可原的,因为外国的几乎就成了高水平的代名词。高水平的技术方案失败了,可归咎于世界科技水平不够高,与用户对技术方案的选择无关,从而无需承担责任。遗憾的是,国资背景的用户恰好应当是采纳并滋养国内原始创新技术方案的首要渠道。
上述问题在国外对我国大搞技术封锁的领域和时期或没有可替代技术方案的情况下并不突出,因为不搞自己的原始创新就没有出路。正是在这种背景下,我国才在极端困难的时期取得了“两弹一星”的辉煌成就,才有了我国自己的氢弹技术方案。然而在技术不被完全封锁的领域,搞自己的原始创新就很难了。与“两弹一星”形成鲜明对照的是我国的大飞机、汽车制造业和半导体制造业等。后者迄今仍在奋力追赶。但原本我们与世界先进水平的差距并没有这么大,至少不比韩国与世界先进水平的差距更大。好在我国科技界和决策部门已经意识到了这个问题,目前正在逐步加以解决。
本次沙龙意在鼓励原始创新,提倡认真和开放的学术争鸣。作为组织者和参与者,我的感觉是我们基本上做到了,并为此深感欣慰。当然,这一切都是在德高望重的老专家们的支持下取得的。我必须对他们的热情参与和鼓励表示深深的敬意。
作为本次沙龙研讨的文集,尽管我们已经做了很大的努力,仍有不少缺憾。首先是演示文档材料不能收入文集,因为篇幅太大,其中有些内容是尚待在SCI学术期刊上公开发表的。还有其他的一些技术细节难以在文集中展开,以致没有参加这次学术沙龙的学者们可能很难读懂。但这本文集基本上忠实地记录了我们这群学者的创新思维和思辨勇气,算是给缺少原始创新氛围的中国科技界奉献的一朵新奇的小花吧。愿它能够起到抛砖引玉的作用。
既然是争鸣,就不妨说些可能有争议的大实话,以便就教于人。于是便有了上述这些文字,衷心欢迎读者们严肃认真的批评。
书不尽言,是为序。
张勤
中国人工智能学会不确定性人工智能专业委员会主任
2015年1月15日

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