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Jingdong book

奇点临近

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奇点临近

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在《奇点临近》中，库兹韦尔通过将进化划分为六大纪元，探讨和分析了科学发展趋势。演绎并预测了科技发展的未来。他大胆预测：

21世纪30年代：人类大脑信息上传成为可能

21世纪40年代：人体3.0升级版出现：通过基因、纳米、机器人技术使人体进化成非肉体

的、可以随意变形的形态。人们大多数时间沉浸在虚拟现实里（像电影《黑客帝国》所描述的那样）。

2045年：奇点来临，人工智能完全超过人类智能，人类历史将彻底改变。

2045年之后：宇宙觉醒，为了超过计算机的局限性。人机智能将物质转化为超级计算机，最终整个宇宙变成一个超级智能，这种智能可以改变目前已知的物理定律。实现不同维度空间的穿越，并实现人类真正的永生

让我们捧读这《奇点临近》，领略作者的大胆推测和严谨论证，共同期待奇点临近

2045年，当计算机智能超过人类

2005年CBS News评选的畅销书

2005年美国畅销非小说类图书

比尔·盖茨、比尔·乔伊等鼎力推荐

部预测人工智能和科技未来的奇书

Content Description

《奇点临近》是一本有思维方法论启示的书；是一本站在历史的高度，INN，考科技力量的书；是一本充满想象与预言，但又不失科学论证的书。本书提供了一个崭新的视角：21世纪既是数百年以来科技、创意的顶点，又是对人类最终命运真挚的愿景。
《奇点临近》特点：奇特与警示的结论，书中六个纪元的划分奇特又富于哲理；严谨与独特的论述方法，通过分析科学发展趋势，演绎并预测未来；警世之语与探讨性对话，通过智者的眼睛去审视自然、科学以及世界；章尾与未来的对话，是一种思想的博弈：通过设想中的未来去理解当今的技术发展和讲化中的人类。
本书论述严谨，案例丰富，深入阐释了“奇点”作为一种思潮，其在世界范围内所产生的广泛影响，并介绍了其在哲学、科学、技术、艺术等各个方面所展示的独特魅力。
Author Description

雷·库兹韦尔，是领先的发明家、思想家、预言学家，他用20余年的时间记录和追溯历史的发展轨迹，以预测未来。他被《华尔街日报》誉为“永不满足的天才”，被《福布斯》杂志誉为“最终的思考机器”，被《Inc.》杂志称为“托马斯·爱迪生的法定继承人”。他还入选了美国国家发明名人堂，是美国国家科技奖章获得者，Lemelson-MIT大奖（世界上最重要的发明奖）获奖者。拥有13项荣誉博士头衔，曾经获得3位总统嘉奖。
比尔·盖茨称他是“预测人工智能未来专业的人”。
1999年，克林顿总统授予他国家技术奖章。
2005年，他的“奇点临近”理论引起了轩然大波，舆论媒体和科学界为此争论不休。
2009年，基于他的奇点理论，Google与美国宇航局（NASA）展开合作，开办了一所致力于培养未来科学家的学校--奇点大学，并由他出任校长。他甚至自编、自导、自演了一部电影--《奇点临近》，于2011年1月在美国上映。
他就是知名的发明家、思想家、预言学家--雷·库兹韦尔。
Comments

★“雷·库兹韦尔是我所知道的预测人工智能未来专业的人。他的这本耐人寻味的书预测未来信息技术得到空前发展，将促使人类超过自身的生物极限——以我们无法想象的方式超过我们的生命。”
——比尔·盖茨

★“这是一本卓越的书，讲述了我们这个时代最杰出的预言学家对未来的深刻见地。”
——马文·明斯基，麻省理工学院媒体艺术与科学系教授

★“阅读本书，你将惊叹于人类发展进程中下一个意义深远的飞跃，它从根本上改变了人类的生活、工作以及感知世界的方式。库兹韦尔的奇点是一个壮举，以不可思议的想象力和雄辩论述了即将发生的颠覆性事件，它将像电和计算机一样从根本上改变我们的观念。”
——迪安·卡门，物理学家

★“本书对科技发展持乐观的态度，值得阅读并引人深思。对于那些像我这样对”承诺与风险的平衡“这一问题的看法与库兹韦尔不同的人来说，本书进一步明确了需要通过对话的方式来解决由于科技加速发展而引发的诸多问题。”
——比尔·乔伊，SUN公司创始人，前首席科学家
Catalogue

摘要
对本书的赞誉
译者序
前言
致谢
作者简介

第1章 六大纪元
直觉的线性增长观与历史的指数增长观
六大纪元
奇点临近

第2章 技术进化理论：加速回归定律
摩尔定律与超摩尔定律
DNA序列、记忆、通信、因特网和小型化
奇点是一项经济命令

第3章 达到人脑的计算能力
计算机技术第六范式：三维分子计算和新兴计算技术
人类大脑的计算能力
计算的限制

第4章 达到人类智能的软件：如何实现大脑的逆向工程
大脑的逆向工程：任务概况
人类大脑是否与计算机不同
对等进人大脑
构建人脑模型
大脑与机器间的接口
加速人类大脑逆向工程
人脑上传

第5章 GNR：三种重叠进行的革命
基因技术：信息与生物的交汇
纳米技术：信息与物理世界的交汇
机器智能：强人工智能

第6章 影响的盛装
关于人体
关于人类大脑
关于人类的寿命
关于战争：远程的、机器人的、健壮的、更小尺寸的、虚拟现实的范式
关于学习
关于工作
关于游戏
关于宇宙中智能的命运：为什么我们可能是宇宙中唯一的

第7章 我是奇点
关于意识的烦人问题
我是谁？我是什么
奇点是一种超越

第8章 GNR：希望与危险的深度纠结
相互纠缠的益处
相互纠缠的威胁
生存危机的概观
准备防御
放弃的理念
防守技术的发展和监管的影响
GNR的一个防御计划

第9章 回应评论家
一系列的批评
……
后记
本书相关资源与联系信息
附录 重新审视加速回归定律
注释
Book Abstract

维布林说：“尽管我们认为我们如此完整地看到了这个世界，而事实上，我们所看到的也仅仅只是一些暗示性的信息以及时间和空间的轮廓而已。这12张图像是我们一直以来所获得的周围事物的所有信息，它们是如此稀疏，而我们正是利用这些重建了我们丰富多彩的视觉世界。我很好奇，为什么自然最终会选择这么简单的十二种影像，而它又是如何向我们提供我们所需要的这个世界的全部信息的呢？”这样的发现对于智能系统的发展肯定具有很大的推进作用，而在这种系统中，眼睛以及早期的视觉处理将会被取代。
在第3章中，我提到的了机器人技术的先行者汉斯·莫拉维茨，他已经通过视网膜神经和大脑中早期的视觉处理转变了工程学上的图像处理。汉斯·莫拉维茨用了30年的时间致力于建造一个系统，期望这个系统能够赶上人类视觉系统的能力，从而达到从视觉上重建世界的目标。而它只是在最近才有足够的处理能力，因为微处理器已经能复制人类级别的特征检测，而莫拉维茨正在应用他的计算机模拟新一代的机器人，使之能够通过人类水平的视觉能力在复杂的环境中自动导航。
卡福·密德一直引领着特殊神经芯片的研究，它将晶体管使用于它们天然的模拟模式，这一模式可以提供非常有效的神经处理的模拟仿真。密德展示过这样一个芯片，此芯片可以应用该方法模拟视网膜的功能，并进行视觉神经早期转换。
检测移动是视觉识别的一种特殊类型，它是杜平根生物物理研究所的重点研究领域。最基本的研究模型很简单：将一个感受器上的信号和在其邻近感受器的延迟信号相对比。这一模型要求速度在特定范围内，如果超过某一特定速度，则会导致令人惊讶的结果。这时，当观察对象的速度继续增加，移动探测器响应灵敏度将减少。动物实验结果（基于行为和我的分析，以及神经产出）和人的实验结果（基于报道的看法）都与该模型很匹配。
……

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