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数据、模型与决策:管理科学篇(原书第13版)

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《数据、模型与决策:管理科学篇(原书第13版)》旨在帮助学生更好地理解与应用管理科学当中数学与技术方面的概念。因此,作者从描述和解决问题这个角度来介绍管理科学方法与模型,其中包括如何对问题求解的技术。这种方法不仅可以使学生了解管理科学的应用程序,而且还可以了解到管理科学是如何辅助决策的。本书还引用了很多被广泛认可的理论,使水平较高的学生可以很容易读懂一些高水平的材料。在第13版中,作者对决策分析、实践中的管理科学、案例和问题等内容进行了大量修订和更新,使内容更加贴近管理实际,可读性更强。
本书适用于管理类专业本科生、研究生、MBA学生以及企业经营管理者。
Author Description

《数据、模型与决策:管理科学篇(原书第13版)》旨在帮助学生更好地理解与应用管理科学当中数学与技术方面的概念。因此,作者从描述和解决问题这个角度来介绍管理科学方法与模型,其中包括如何对问题求解的技术。这种方法不仅可以使学生了解管理科学的应用程序,而且还可以了解到管理科学是如何辅助决策的。本书还引用了很多被广泛认可的理论,使水平较高的学生可以很容易读懂一些高水平的材料。在第13版中,作者对决策分析、实践中的管理科学、案例和问题等内容进行了大量修订和更新,使内容更加贴近管理实际,可读性更强。
本书适用于管理类专业本科生、研究生、MBA学生以及企业经营管理者。
Catalogue

译者序
作者简介
前言
教学建议
第1章 导论
1.1 解决问题与制定决策
1.2 定量分析与制定决策
1.3 定量分析
1.4 成本、 收益与利润模型
1.5 管理科学技术
本章小结
专业术语
习题
案例1.1 高尔夫联合会的日程安排
附录1 A用Excel做盈亏平衡分析
第2章 线性规划导论
2.1 一个简单的最大化问题
2.2 图解法
2.3 极点与最优解
2.4 Par公司问题的计算机求解
2.5 一个简单的最小化问题
2.6 特例
2.7 线性规划的通用符号
本章小结
专业术语
习题
案例2.1 工作载荷平衡
案例2.2 生产战略
案例2.3哈特风险基金
附录2A 用LINGO求解线性规划问题
附录2B 用Excel求解线性规划问题
第3章 线性规划的灵敏度分析与最优解的解释
3.1 灵敏度分析简介
3.2 图解法灵敏度分析
3.3 灵敏度分析: 计算机求解
3.4 传统灵敏度分析的不足
3.5 电子通信公司问题
本章小结
专业术语
习题
案例3.1 产品混合问题
案例3.2 投资战略
案例3.3 货车租赁策略
附录3A 用Excel进行灵敏度分析
附录3B LINGO的灵敏度分析报告
第4章 线性规划在市场营销、财务和运作管理领域的应用
4.1 市场营销应用
4.2 财务应用
4.3生产管理应用
4.4 混合问题
本章小结
习题
案例4.1 广告战
案例4.2 Phoenix计算机
案例4.3 纺织厂生产计划
案例4.4 劳动力安排
案例4.5Cinergy煤分配
附录4A Hewlitt公司财务计划的Excel求解
第5章 高级线性规划应用
5.1 数据包络分析
5.2 收益管理
5.3 投资组合模型和资产分配
5.4 博弈论
本章小结
专业术语
习题
第6章 分配与网络模型
6.1 运输问题
6.2 指派问题
6.3 转运问题
6.4 最短路径问题
6.5 最大流问题
6.6 生产和库存应用
本章小结
专业术语
习题
案例6.1 Solutions Plus
案例6.2 分销系统设计
附录6A 运输、指派与转运问题的Excel求解
第7章 整数线性规划
7.1 整数线性规划的分类
7.2 全整数线性规划的图解法与计算机解法
7.3 含有0-1变量的整数线性规划的应用
7.4 0-1整数变量在建模过程中的灵活性分析
本章小结
专业术语
习题
案例7.1 课本出版
案例7.2 伊戈国有银行
案例7.3 含有更换成本的生产计划
附录7A 整数线性规划的Excel求解
附录7B 整数线性规划的LINGO求解
第8章 非线性最优化模型
8.1 一个生产应用——对Par公司的再思考
8.2 建立一个指数化证券投资基金
8.3 Markowitz投资组合模型
8.4 另一混合问题
8.5 预测一个新产品的使用
本章小结
专业术语
习题
案例8.1 有交易成本的投资组合最优化
案例8.2 汽车行业CAFE合规问题
附录8A 用LINGO求解非线性问题
附录8B 用Excel Solver求解非线性问题
第9章 项目安排:计划评审法/关键路径法
9.1 活动时间已知的项目安排
9.2 活动时间不确定的项目安排
9.3 时间与成本抉择
本章小结
专业术语
习题
案例9.1 R. C. Coleman
附录9A Microsoft Office Project的使用方法
第10章 库存模型
10.1 经济订货量模型
10.2 经济生产批量模型
10.3 有计划缺货时的库存模型
10.4 EOQ模型的数量折扣
10.5 概率需求下的单阶段库存模型
10.6 概率需求下的订货数量——再订货点模型
10.7 概率需求下的定期检查模型
本章小结
专业术语
习题
案例10.1 万戈制造公司
案例10.2 河城消防队
附录10A EOQ模型下最佳经济订货量(Q*)的公式推导
附录10B 批量生产模型下最佳批量(Q*)的公式推导
第11章 等候线模型
11.1 等候线系统的结构
11.2 到达服从泊松分布、服务时间服从指数分布的单列等候线模型
11.3 到达服从泊松分布、服务时间服从指数分布的多列等候线模型
11.4 等候线模型中的一般关系
11.5 等候线的经济性分析
11.6 其他等候线模型
11.7 到达服从泊松分布、任意服务时间的单列等候线模型
11.8 到达服从泊松分布、任意服务时间且无等候线的多列模型
11.9 有限客源的等候线模型
本章小结
专业术语
习题
案例11.1 支线航空公司
案例11.2 办公设备公司
第12章 模拟
12.1 风险分析
12.2 库存模拟
12.3 等候线模拟
12.4 其他模拟问题
本章小结
专业术语
习题
案例12.1 Tri.State公司
案例12.2 海港沙丘高尔夫场地
案例12.3 Drive.Thru饮料公司
附录12A 用Excel做模拟
附录12B 用Crystal Ball模拟的PortaCom问题
第13章 决策分析
13.1 构造问题
13.2 未知概率的决策
13.3 已知概率的决策
13.4 风险分析与灵敏度分析
13.5 有样本信息的决策分析
13.6 计算分支概率
本章小结
专业术语
习题
案例13.1 财产购置策略
案例13.2 法律抗辩策略
附录13A 用决策树进行决策
第14章 多准则决策
14.1 目标规划:建模与图解法
14.2 目标规划:较复杂问题的解法
14.3 计分模型
14.4 层次分析法
14.5 运用AHP确定优先级
14.6 运用AHP建立综合优先级排名
本章小结
专业术语
习题
案例14.1 EZ拖船公司
附录14A 用Excel的计分模型
第15章 时间序列分析与预测
15.1 时间序列模式
15.2 预测精确度
15.3 移动平均法和指数平滑法
15.4 趋势投影法
15.5 季节性
本章小结
专业术语
习题
案例15.1 预测食品和饮料的销售
案例15.2 预测损失的销售量
附录15A 用Excel Data Analysis工具预测
附录15B 用Excel Solver预测
附录15C 用LINGO预测
第16章 马尔可夫过程
16.1 市场份额分析
16.2 应收账款分析
本章小结
专业术语
习题
案例16.1 黑杰克游戏中发牌人的吸收状态概率
附录16A 矩阵记法及运算
附录16B 用Excel求逆矩阵
附录A 建立电子表格模型
附录B 标准正态分布表
附录C e-λ的值
附录D 推荐阅读和参考文献
附录E 部分习题答案
第17章-第21章见本书所附光盘。
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